Betting Talk

€200 to €10,000 Betting Log (Division)

DivisionDivision Senior Member
edited February 2017 in Sports Betting
I will have a bit of fun with a betting log where I will attempt to turn €200 into €10,000 by the end of the current football season which ends with the Champions League Final on 3rd June.

Each round of bets will be the same where I will choose 3 bets and stake 100% of the current bankroll amount across the bets in a way that each payout will be equal to the others.

Bets will be primarily from the English Premier League and Champions League.

I will assign an estimated strike rate for each bet and the corresponding expected value.

I will choose the best price from a range of bookmakers: Bet365 | BetFred | BetVictor | Paddy Power | Stan James | Ladbrokes | Coral | William Hill

*This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example.

*Should the betting log be completed successfully I will donate €500 of the winnings to Concern Worldwide - a charity that works with the world’s poorest people to transform their lives.

Comments

  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Betting Round 1:

    English Premier League
    Hull v West Brom
    Bet: West Brom Win or Draw Double Chance @ 1.4 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.2% | Expected Value: 115.1%
    Stake: €67

    English Premier League
    Swansea v Crystal Palace
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 74.8% | Expected Value: 127.2%
    Stake: €56

    English Premier League
    Man Utd v West Ham
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 105.7%
    Stake: €77
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    What is that weird symbol that looks like a "C" with two lines in it?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited November 2016
    What is that weird symbol that looks like a "C" with two lines in it?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euro_sign
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Next question: What does the expression, expected value 127.2 Percent mean?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited November 2016
    Next question: What does the expression, expected value 127.2 Percent mean?

    He's basically trying to quantify what the expectation is on his bet. So based on his numbers, he'll return $1.27 for every $1 bet. (ie, if you gave me +120 on a coin toss, the "expected value" as he's calculating it would be 110% since that's what I'd expect to return on every dollar bet). It's just the expected winning % (or "expected strike rate" as he phrased it) multiplied by the odds.
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    I'm from Ireland so you will have to excuse the € and the expressions:)
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    This type of betting is frowned upon by most bettors. I ran a little simulation to see how you might turn out. It assumes you actually have a true 5% ROI on each bet and there are 25 weeks of 3 bets each the rest of the way you will be successful 2.9% of the time, ruin 91.7% and have some money left over 5.4% of the time. The expected value is a 126% ROI, you'll earn $252.

    The alternative would be to just bet the same amount for all 75 bets. If you bet $200 each time, you would have a 70.75 chance of reaching your goal and get a 363% cumulative return, including upside and downside scenarios. You may say, "well I wouldnt make 75 $200 bets I dont have a bankroll that deep", but the theorists would say you dont have a deep enough bankroll to bet $200 to win $10K either.

    But I am on YOUR side on this one. You have a system that is unproven. You dont know for sure that it has a 5% ROI, because if you had real faith in your 5% ROI on a market as deep as EPL you wouldn't be betting $200 on anything. In that case I like the idea of increasing the bet as you win. It is like having a parlay bet with correlated legs.

    Lets consider two types of systems:

    System A: Bet football teams in the 1st quarter who like to receive when they are playing teams that like to defer. I see the ratio between the game money line and the Q1 moneyline and when you have one of these receive vs. defer matchups it is the same as the ratio in the same week where you have a receive vs receive matchup. I KNOW there is an edge here. So I should bet 1 unit per game.

    System B: Blindly bet NFL Home Dogs of 7+ points after Thanksgiving. This is a system that I think works but I dont know whether it has been arbitraged away or the bookies have priced it in and it no longer works in 2016. So I think it works but wont really ever know for sure. In this type of system I think your wacky progressive betting system mgiht be a good idea.

    ALSO I GOT IN ON YOUR PICKS WELL DONE 2 for 2.
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Happy that someone won money off the first couple of games but not sure how system A & B relate to what I'm doing, You seem to be trying to place NFL betting theory, which I know nothing about, onto soccer betting which I am knowledgeable about.

    To put things as simply as possible, I make my own prices which allows me to be determine my estimated winning percentage and therefore expected value.
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Bankroll management doesn't apply here. Stakes are even higher than a full Kelly stake however its a short term project. Variance will rule over the result.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Division wrote: »
    Bankroll management doesn't apply here. Stakes are even higher than a full Kelly stake however its a short term project. Variance will rule over the result.

    In that case I'm wondering why you would sign up for $10 to post your strategy?
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    There is no cost to sign up and I'm interested in US bettors techniques which tend to be more analytical compared to Irish & UK bettors.
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Results - Betting Round 1

    Hull 1-1 West Brom
    Swansea 5-4 Crystal Palace
    Man Utd 1-1 West Ham

    Current Balance: €282
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Betting Round 2:

    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Southampton
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.8 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 70.4% | Expected Value: 126.7%
    Stake: €82

    Spanish Primera Division
    Barcelona v Real Madrid
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.44 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 74.3% | Expected Value: 107.1%
    Stake: €102

    Champions League
    Real Madrid v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.5 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 75.6% | Expected Value: 113.4%
    Stake: €98
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Results - Betting Round 2

    Crystal Palace 3–0 Southampton
    Barcelona 1–1 Real Madrid
    Real Madrid 2–2 Borussia Dortmund

    Current Balance: €294
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Betting Round 3:

    English Premier League
    Everton v Arsenal
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 68.7% | Expected Value: 114.7%
    Stake: €81

    English Premier League
    West Ham v Burnley
    Bet: West Ham Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 86.6% | Expected Value: 108.3%
    Stake: €108

    English Premier League
    Crystal Palace v Man Utd
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.29 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 84.5% | Expected Value: 109.1%
    Stake: €105
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Results - Betting Round 3

    Everton 2-1 Arsenal
    West Ham 1-0 Burnley
    Crystal Palace 1-2 Man Utd

    Current Balance: €406
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Betting Round 4:

    English Premier League
    Tottenham v Burnley
    Bet: Tottenham Win To Nil @ 1.92 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 60.2% | Expected Value 115.7%
    Stake: €99

    English Premier League
    West Ham v Hull
    Bet: West Ham Draw No Bet @ 1.25 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 85.9% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €152

    English Premier League
    Everton v Liverpool
    Bet: Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.22 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 91.2% | Expected Value 111.3%
    Stake: €155
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Results - Betting Round 4

    Tottenham 2-1 Burnley
    West Ham 1-0 Hull
    Everton 0-1 Liverpool

    Current Balance: €190

    English Premier League
    Everton v Man City
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 63.7% | Expected Value 108.4%
    Stake: €58

    English Premier League
    Swansea v Arsenal
    Bet: Arsenal To Win @ 1.53 Paddy Power
    Expected Strike Rate: 73% | Expected Value 111.8%
    Stake: €64

    Spanish La Liga
    Sevilla v Real Madrid
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.45 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 73.9% | Expected Value 107.2%
    Stake: €68
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Results - Betting Round 5

    Swansea 0-4 Arsenal
    Sevilla 2-1 Real Madrid
    Everton 4-0 Man City

    Current Balance: €197

    German Bundesliga
    Werder Bremen v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.57 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 69.9% | Expected Value 109.7%
    Stake: €62

    English Premier League
    Man City v Tottenham
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 64.3% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €58

    English Premier League
    West Brom v Sunderland
    Bet: West Brom To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.25 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 88.4% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 110.6%
    Stake: €77
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Results - Betting Round 6

    Werder Bremen 1-2 Borussia Dortmund
    Man City 2-2 Tottenham
    West Brom 2-0 Sunderland

    Current Balance: €290

    German Bundesliga
    Bayer Leverkusen v Borussia Monchengladbach
    Bet: Bayer Leverkusen To Win (Draw No Bet) @ 1.36 Bet Victor
    Expected Strike Rate: 79.6% (ex. draw) | Expected Value 108.3%
    Stake: €102

    Spanish La Liga
    Espanyol v Sevilla
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.7 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 64.1% | Expected Value 109.1%
    Stake: €81

    Spanish La Liga
    Betis v Barcelona
    Bet: Barcelona To Win @ 1.3 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.1% | Expected Value 106.8%
    Stake: €107
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited January 2017
    Results - Betting Round 7

    Bayer Leverkusen 2-3 Borussia Monchengladbach
    Espanyol 3-1 Sevilla
    Betis 1-1 Barcelona

    Current Balance: €138

    English Premier League
    Middlesbrough v West Brom
    Bet: Under 2.5 Goals @ 1.5 BetFred
    Expected Strike Rate: 71.1% | Expected Value 106.7%
    Stake: €43

    English Premier League
    Liverpool v Chelsea
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.83 William Hill
    Expected Strike Rate: 58.7% | Expected Value 107.4%
    Stake: €36

    English Premier League
    Man Utd v Hull
    Bet: Man Utd To Win @ 1.2 Bet365
    Expected Strike Rate: 90.1% | Expected Value 108.1%
    Stake: €52
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    Results - Betting Round 8

    Middlesbrough 1-1 West Brom
    Liverpool 1-1 Chelsea
    Man Utd 0-0 Hull

    Current Balance: €137

    English Premier League
    Stoke v Crystal Palace
    Bet: Stoke Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.3 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 82.5% | Expected Value 107.3%
    Stake: €53

    English Premier League
    Liverpool v Tottenham
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Coral
    Expected Strike Rate: 62.7% | Expected Value 108.6%
    Stake: €39

    German Bundesliga
    Wolfsburg v Hoffenheim
    Bet: Hoffenheim Win & Draw Double Chance @ 1.53 Ladbrokes
    Expected Strike Rate: 73.2% | Expected Value 112.1%
    Stake: €45
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    Results - Betting Round 9

    Stoke 1-0 Crystal Palace
    Liverpool 2-0 Tottenham
    Wolfsburg 2-1 Hoffenheim

    Current Balance: €69

    Champions League
    Benfica v Borussia Dortmund
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.73 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 63% | Expected Value 109.1%
    Stake: €22

    Champions League
    Real Madrid v Napoli
    Bet: Napoli +2 Handicap @ 1.53 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 69.5% | Expected Value 106.4%
    Stake: €25

    Champions League
    PSG v Barcelona
    Bet: Both Teams To Score @ 1.67 Stan James
    Expected Strike Rate: 65% | Expected Value 108.7%
    Stake: €22
  • DivisionDivision Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    I won't be continuing the log in its current format. The stake percentage is simply too high.

    To quote my opening post:

    "This will not be following good bankroll management strategy as the staking percentage on most of the bets will be extremely high to have a chance of growing the bankroll 50x in a short period of time so if you choose to follow you should gamble responsibly and only bet money that you can afford to lose so you could follow by turning €20 into €1,000 for example."

    I am currently formulating a more traditional strategy but one that will allow the objective to be completed within a reasonably time frame so I will be back soon but I have to run a few more simulations to finalise a strategy that I am happy with that will have a much greater chance of success but over a longer time frame. I bet a flat stake of 2% with my main bankroll but that won't be suitable for this log so I'm looking to see what stake percentage I am comfortable with but it will be less than a half Kelly stake.

    Regarding my pledge to donate €500 to Concern Worldwide this will stand for the new betting log and I will continue with the log for however long it takes to complete it successfully.
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