Betting Talk

College Hoops (2016-17)

helmuthelmut Senior Member
edited March 2017 in Sports Betting
750 Villanova UNDER 147

With Western Michigan having 9 new freshman and struggling to score against Oakland which usually doesn't play much defense scoring points may be tough to come by today. I have been burned in the past by playing these early season Villanova games over and usually what happens is the bad team never scores enough to get them over. Since 2013 the Villanova O/U record is at 9-17 against the mid majors in non-conference games, against these same teams when favored by 10 or more the O/U record is 5-13.
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Comments

  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    544 Xavier UNDER 156.5

    Once again we keep getting super high totals on games where it really doesn't make a lot of sense. First of all both these teams have way better than average defenses. Clemson plays in a conference with a lot of good teams that play with some pace like Xavier yet their games only averaged 135 ppg last season. Even last year when Clemson played UNC the total was only 144 and UNC plays a lot faster than Xavier and also had the best offense in the league. In order for this game to get over this number both teams are going to have to shoot lights out.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    754 St. Bonaventure UNDER 144

    UALR was one of the slowest pace teams in the league last season and with the new coach the style was not going to change that much. They played a bunch of those stupid teams fast but the first real game against Idaho and it was slow. I expect the same thing today against St. Bonaventure.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    553 Northwestern OVER 143.5

    The Wildcats have scored 77, 68, 86, 94 and have shot at least 48% from the field in every game including games against a couple of good defenses in Texas and Butler. The Irish have scored 89, 83, 92, 89 and both exhibition games they topped 100 pts. While the pace won't be fast both these teams have had zero problems on offense so far this season.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    5-2 YTD

    734 Ohio St. UNDER 154
    762 Louisville UNDER 131
    792 North Florida UNDER 159
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    556 Memphis UNDER 153
  • jammerjammer Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Still reccomend at 150?
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    720 Penn UNDER 136.5

    Not sure why this one moved backed. In the last four games between these teams Penn has not been able to score much on the Wildcats, scoring just 57, 47, 54, 55. The Wildcats defense is currently in the top ten and it should once again prove difficult for Penn to score. The games played at the Palestra have always been slower paced and lower scoring games. Other than the first two games this year with the Wildcats the last four have been lower paced games. They have now fallen all the way down to the #330 paced team in the nation and I don't think they are going to deviate from the recent run of lower paced games against a team that does not play that fast either tonight.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 5-4

    778 Wisconsin OVER 133
  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    777 over or 778 under. Thanks.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    bumpo wrote: »
    777 over or 778 under. Thanks.

    sorry

    should have used 777 Idaho St. OVER
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 5-5

    536 Houston UNDER 137.5

    Both of these teams are near the bottom in kenpom pace. Houston is #307 and Rhode Island is #291. Both teams defend very well. Houston shoots the three ball really well but Rhode Island has one of the better perimeter defenses in the league. Rhode Island is without their leading scorer Hassan martin which should help the under. Last years game was a 57-67 slug fest and I think we get the same type of game today.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    641 Montana St. OVER 165

    Both of these teams plays with good pace so we should get a fast pace game here. Last years game saw 162 possession in a game that was fairly close and both teams are playing just as fast so I think it is likely we see a game with this kind of pace again. The Bobcats are averaging 80.3 ppg and Omaha is averaging 79.8. With the likely fast pace and both teams having well below average defenses there should be a good chance that they can each team can exceed their average offense numbers in this game.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    579 Michigan OVER 146.5

    UCLA is #4 in offense efficiency, the #2 team in the league in 3pt shooting plus they're the 10th fastest pace team in the nation. Michigan is not that bad on offense with a #31 offense efficiency number. UCLA is not going to deviate from what they are doing this year and they will continue to take shots early in the shot clock. Nebraska tried slowing the Bruins down and the game still produced 153 pts and their offense is not nearly as good as Michigan's.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    715 Hofstra OVER 165

    I think this game has a good chance for UK offense to put up some big numbers. This is the worst defensive team they have faced all season. This Hofstra teams defense is probably even worse than the current numbers they have put up this season, since they have come against almost all poor offensive teams. This game should be an up and down type of game with Kentucky playing with such pace and Hofstra should be a willing partner today. Many times in these types of games where one team is such a large favorite and can score relatively easily is that the defense tends to lets up a little bit and Hofstra has shown that they can score some this year.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 8-6

    518 Boston College UNDER 149.5

    The main reason for this under play is I just don’t think Boston College is going to be able to score enough to send this game over. They are #281 in the nation in offense efficiency and the bad offense has come against a schedule with 4/9 opponents have a defense efficiency of #300 or worse. The only top 100 defense they played was Kansas St. and they shot a season low 33% in that game. I don’t think their offense is any better than last year where they averaged just 57.2 ppg against the power conference opponents. Auburn doesn’t have the greatest offense in the world and while they play fast the games where they did score some pts have come against some really bad defenses. Also to our advantage is that we have this game on a neutral court and those games have a slight bias for the under.
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    nice call on that one Helmut, I took a bad beat on BC tt, got me at buzzer, but won aub tt , and 2h u, thanks for input.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 9-6

    728 Clemson UNDER 143

    This is another game where I think it will be very difficult for the big underdog to score enough. Going back to the start of last season South Carolina St. has played 10 games against top 100 teams and scored an average of 56.8 pts. I think that game a few days ago against Texas A&M was just one out of left field or something because they did not score anything close to that in the other 9 games against these top teams. Clemson defense against these bad teams has been outstanding going to start of last year they held NC Central to 40, UTSA to 45, SC Upstate to 56, Presbyterian to 41, Coppin St. to 43 and I think its just more of the same tonight.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Thx agin dude!
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    528 Southern Illinois UNDER 135

    I don't understand the upward line movement overnight. Looks like the Billikens will be without three key players...

    http://www.stltoday.com/sports/college/slu/banged-up-billikens-visit-salukis/article_0eacf1e1-a011-59eb-a910-338c2390cd76.html

    They were not that good of a scoring team to begin with (#337 in offense efficiency). They only scored 45, 45, 53 in their last three games with these guys. The scoring in their games has been trending lower over the last five games.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Great job beating the number man. That's some serious line movement. Was RAS the cause for drop from 131.5 to 127?
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 10-7


    768 Texas A&M UNDER 136.5

    This really shouldn’t be that fast paced of a game with the Aggies ranked at #337 and the Wildcats #275. Both defenses here also well above average with the Aggies at #43 and the Wildcats #28. The Aggies have played several weak opponents and have run up some big scores on them but in the games against the better teams the points haven’t come as easily, 63 against USC, 68 against VT, 67 against UCLA all of which play at a much faster pace than Arizona. The same thing can be said with Arizona when they step up and played the better teams 65 against MSU, 65 against Butler, 62 against Gonzaga and once again all these teams play at a much faster pace than A&M. This is another game on a neutral court and these overs are a little tougher to hit.


    775 Manhattan OVER 156

    I think this is going to be a game where FSU has a good chance to put up a 100 in this game. The Seminoles have a huge size advantage and they should be able to shoot a very high percentage from close range. They are already #6 in the country on 2pt shooting. They have shown that against these fast paced mid-major teams they can put up some pts, 99 against Iona, 100 against Winthrop, 100 against Detroit, 118 against Nicholls St. I just think with finals week that this is going to be one of those games where FSU scores so easily that the effort on the defensive side lacks a little and Manhattan scores better than usual.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    806 St. Louis UNDER 135

    This is a fairly high total for a couple of teams so bad on the offensive side. The Billikins are #339 in offense efficiency and Edwardsville at #313 is not a whole lot better. The Billikins have been consistently bad on offense for quite some time now. Four straight games scoring 55 or less with the last two against a couple of bad defenses. The last two games have been very slow pace and with the injuries and I think once again we see them play another slow pace game here. Edwardsville has played 5 out of the last 6 with an offense efficiency less than 1.00 and St. Louis has played 7 in a row with an offense efficiency less than 1.00. Its not like this bad shooting has come against a bunch of really good teams. There have been plenty of bad defenses that neither one of these teams could score on. I just thinks its going to be more of the same tonight.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 12-8

    546 North Carolina St. OVER 148.5

    Makes no sense to me why this one has been bet lower on the overnight lines. Both teams play fast and this will be the best opponent Fairfield has seen all season. NC State has a history of playing high scoring games against these fast pace non conference opponents with the games averaging 164.5 pts the last two season against non conference opponents with an average of 70+ possessions a game. Is it me or does it seem like we have had a lot of really high scoring games this week? Well, I looked it up and the games this week were about 3pts on average higher scoring than the average of the previous 6 weeks. Not many teams have played much defense this week and think that trend continues in this meeting of fast pace teams.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 13-8

    569 Georgia Southern OVER 153

    These teams played a very fast paced high scoring game last season and I see no reason why this year’s game should be any different. Looking at Winthrop games over the last two seasons where they have played 70+ possession teams and the games have averaged 167 total pts. Georgia Southern games against 70+ possession teams over this same time frame have averaged 154 pts.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    538 Maryland UNDER 148.5

    The 49ers have had a hard time scoring in their last six games. Their offense efficiency over these games is 0.91 which is about as bad as it gets and its not like they have played a bunch of good defensive teams. I think once again today they are going to have a hard time on the offensive end against this Maryland team that has a decent defense. Maryland offense is OK but not great this season. They have had a few games where they scored but those were against teams from the smaller conferences and a D3 school. Both of these teams have also played a lot of games under this season. Maryland unders are 8-3 and Charlotte unders are 6-1-1. Also throw in the fact that this is on a neutral court and I think we’re looking at another lower scoring game here.


    564 Brigham Young UNDER 157.5

    This Idaho St. team started the year off playing fast but in recent games it looks like to me that they’re taking the air out of the ball. They have played a bunch of fairly fast paced teams and have had some rather low possession games. Here are some recent possession numbers.

    Boise (71.9) 133 possessions
    Northridge (75.1) 134 possessions
    Lamar (71.8) 143 possessions
    NJIT (73.0) 135 possessions

    Also throw in the fact that Idaho St. is not very good on offense either. They have been unable to crack 60 pts in several games this season and BYU has been playing some solid defense to start this season out. It’s a big total for teams that have combined to play unders at 13-4 rate this season.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    536 Toledo UNDER 148.5

    To me it looks like they opened a bad number. Usually they are within a few points of the kenpom number and this one was 9 pts higher. Loyola has recently played a lot of games at a slower pace and recent games against fast pace teams like Wright St. and Illinois Chicago didn’t come close to this total in regulation time. Last year’s game was played at just 135 possessions and I think we should see a similar pace this year. Loyola’s defense has been really good this year so far holding every opponent except NC State to an offense efficiency of 1.00 or less. If you look back at the history of Loyola games you will find not many that have gone over this number. Even though there have been a few high scoring games with them this year I think the recent run of games is more likely the style they play for the remainder of the season.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    534 Ohio St. UNDER 158.5

    This number is getting a little crazy now. I could see a total of 160+ against UCLA but this is YSU and their offense isn't even close to what the Bruins can do. They played Michigan St. earlier this year and only scored 57. Ohio St. does not play that fast and they haven't exactly lit up the scoreboard this year except for the one game against Marshall despite playing plenty of bad teams (Navy, NC Central, WCU, Jackson St., Marshall, FDU, FAU). Only 4 out of the last 44 games have gone over this number. Seems rather risky to me just penciling them in for 90 pts here.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 17-9


    732 Middle Tennessee UNDER 138

    Last year the total on this game was 125.5 and this year it is much higher and I’m not sure that much really has changed with this teams to warrant a total this high. Georgia St. when they have step up this year and played teams with a good defense the results have not been good. They have had an offense efficiency well under 1.00 in all these games, just 0.84 against Auburn, 0.82 against Purdue, 0.84 against Mississippi St., 0.79 against Old Dominion. The Blue Raiders defense may not be on par with all these teams but it’s still pretty good. Neither one of these teams play that fast and they combined to play games most of their games under this season (13-4-1 in lined games).
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    YTD 18-9


    567 Furman OVER 128

    After the game against Texas coach Beilein wanted to get out in transition and get some easier baskets. Since that game their pace has slightly picked up and they have put together three of their best offensive performances in a long time. The Wolverines usually play higher scoring games at home especially in the non-conference portion of the schedule. Going back to the start of last season Michigan home games have gone 9-2 against the over with the Wolverines averaging 80ppg. Furman should be able to get some points here as well. They hoist up a lot of 3pt shots and are hitting close to 40% while Michigan’s 3pt defense is #292 in the nation.
  • helmuthelmut Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    602 Colorado UNDER 146.5

    The Eagles have played a lot of high scoring games this season but some of that is due to the four overtime games they have played. They don’t play that fast and take a lot of three point shots. They should have some issues with the 3pt shot as Colorado has a strong perimeter defense allowing opponents less than 30% shooting from the three. With the new coach the Buffalos were supposed to play at a faster pace but it’s pretty much the same as last year right in the middle of the pack tempo wise. Their games almost always take over money but that has been a bad result for the players as the overs have gone 2-9 against the closing total with the last seven lined games all going under.
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