Chicago St. is #312 in tempo and they should be able to slow this game down. Throw in the fact that they are #330 in offense efficiency and we should not expect a lot of points on offense from them. Some of their games that have gone over is from them giving up huge points to their opponents. Troy comes in with a below average offense so we shouldn’t expect them to go crazy on offense.
Georgetown is playing a little faster this year but when get through the conference games I doubt there pace will be that much different from last year. The games last year between these teams were not that overly fast paced coming in at 146 and 142 total possessions. We have seen Georgetown struggle to score at times this season, subpar offensive games in every game of the Maui tournament. Both these teams are fairly solid on the defense and have defense efficiencies in the top 100. Even simple math would suggest an under here with Marquette games averaging 157.0 pts and Georgetown games averaging 149.3. Also historically playing conference games under these big totals within the power conferences has been a good investment.
Virginia comes into this game dead last in the league in tempo. They have been playing so slow that they are last by nearly 2 possessions slower than the #350 paced team and over 3 possessions slower than last year’s pace. Almost always the pace is faster in these non-conference games and with Virginia playing so slow I got to think this game will be played at a snail’s pace as well. Both of these teams defenses are outstanding, #1 and #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Both teams defend the three well and both teams issues are on the offensive end. The previous four games between these teams play to totals of 114, 110, 116, 99. Almost always these short totals get bet higher but I think this overnight move is incorrect.
All the previous meetings between these teams produce some high scoring games, but that data doesn’t apply anymore since each of these teams is under the direction of a new coach this year. Both of these teams started the season of playing at a fast pace but as we have neared the start of conference games the pace has dramatically slowed down. The last three Portland games were their slowest paced games of the season despite playing some fairly fast pace teams in Portland St. and Fullerton. Pretty much this same scenario has played out for Pacific as well with their last three games against the board teams being their slowest paced games of the season. The only games where Pacific scored reasonably well were against teams with very weak defenses. I think this is very likely to be a slow pace game and I don’t think that we will get enough scoring from Pacific to get this one over the total.
I don’t think we will see Georgia St. play these conference games at the same pace that the non-conference games were played at. Last season they were #330 in tempo and this season so far they have played almost an entire schedule all against fast pace teams. The last seven games between these teams have been all played at a relatively slow pace and have averaged just 110 pts with the highest scoring contest producing 135 total pts that needed an overtime to get there.
602 Furman UNDER 182
Even though The Citadel plays at the fastest pace I think this total is just too high considering that Furman is one of the slower pace teams in the league and can dictate some of the pace here in this game. Furman has played four games against Baucom coached teams in the last two years and all four of them played under this number. Also of note The Citadel take almost 50% of their FG attempts from the 3pt line. Furman is really good this year at defending the 3pt shot. Opponents are shooting just 29.6% on them, which is good for #26 in the league.
None of the previous games between these teams in the last four years have come close to going over this total. Even last year with the new rules both these teams were playing just as fast but neither game came close to this number. Both teams play excellent defense. Marquette has had some really high scoring games this season that were mainly due to them shooting lights out. These teams play each other twice a year and our very familiar with what each other does. I doubt we see one of those crazy fast paced games here nor do I expect one of these teams to go crazy on offense.
When we look at the tempo in this game there shouldn’t be much pace at all with both these teams ranked in the 300s. But more important than pace is being able to score on offense. Mercer is one of the worst teams in the league on defense. The last five games opponents have averaged 1.28 ppp which is about as bad as it gets. Sure there are some tough teams in this streak are very good but even Wofford and Kennesaw scored with ease. Last season with Mercer playing at the same pace and having a better defense the two games played to 134 and 159 pts. I just got to think that we get a similar style game again this year.
Last year’s game between these teams was relatively fast paced and high scoring but I think it might have been one of those games that just quite don’t make any sense. Going back the last four years between these teams there were six games and the last years game was the only one played fast. SMU this year is #340 in pace and the last three of their games have all been played super slow, so I think there is very little chance this game is played with any kind of pace. Also the Mustang defense is outstanding and has really picked it up a notch the last month. In their last six games not one opponent has cracked 60 pts and these opponents have only averaged 52 ppg. Its not like these teams were all stiffs either with games against TCU, Stanford and Memphis.
The Dragons have scored well this season so far but they have not played very many tough teams. The two tough out of conference games with Rutgers and St. Joseph’s there offense efficiency was below 1.00 in each game. Both of their games to start of conference play they also failed to reach an OE of 1.00. It should be tough for them to score tonight going up against the second best defense in the CAA. NC Wilmington has scored well this season but this total is at the point where both of these teams are going to have to get near 80 and that’s something neither one has done in the last few games.
722 Northeastern UNDER 130.5
This looks like once again one of those false moves on the overnight line. I’m not sure how anyone can play a Delaware game over at this number considering how consistently awful they have been on offense. They are #324 in the nation and by far the worst in the CAA. Tonight they will be up against one of the better defense in the CAA. Also both of these teams like to play on the slower side and Delaware last two games have played very slow so I don’t expect much pace into tonight’s game.
738 Northern Kentucky UNDER 156
We always get high totals on these NKU games and I’m not sure why they're still this high. They are a middle of the pack pace team and just an average team on the offensive end, yet we always get totals in the 150’s. Their games only average 144 ppg and have only played 4/11 games over, which would suggest this total may be too high. The last two league games NKU was up against Detroit and Oakland who each like to play fast like YSU but neither of these games came close to 140 possessions and I think we should once again tonight get a slower pace game that what you would expect looking at the overall numbers.
778 The Citadel UNDER 187
I’m not sure we get a crazy fast paced game here tonight. Last season both games were played in the low 160’s possessions and just a week ago ETSU played the second fastest team in the league very similar to how Citadel plays and it was once again in the low 160’s pace wise and the game did not come close to this number. Also another factor for the under here is that ETSU has the best defense in the SOCON. They have only allowed a hand full of teams to score better than 1.00 on them and with a total this high your going to need a lot of pace and both teams to score at a high rate.
Helmut ....great job...I like to compare your totals with my sides . I tend to press my side bet a little bit more if there is a correlation .
Tonight i took nc wilm , they did score 76 vs towson and 79 vs elon..am thinking that is pretty close to 80 and they did score 73 vs clemson on the road...i think nc wilm is going to get a whole lot of extra points off turnovers tonight....i dont know how that is going to effect the total , if nc wilm doesnt get to 80 or more, which i think they do pretty easy, am dead in the water on this bet. Good luck on your bet.
Jets, U got a lotta nerve hijacking this thread. Do U think I wanna be reminded of Parcells blowing a 10pt lead in Mile High when my email alerts show "jets96" in a Helmut thread?
I think this is just a crazy high total. North Carolina appears to be an under team this season playing 10 out of the 15 lined games under the total. Let’s also not forget despite the Heels playing fast the also have one of the better defenses in the league. Kenpom has them #19 in the nation with opponents only scoring at a 0.91 ppp. I just don’t think this game is going to be all that fast paced. The Wolfpack just played Virginia Tech, which plays just one possession slower than UNC to a 139 possession game. The last five games between these teams played to 132, 124, 121, 137, 129 possessions. I think its very likely we get a similar paced game and with that few possessions it will be tough to get over this big number.
834 Baylor UNDER 151.5
The Cowboy’s games this season have all been pretty much fast paced high scoring games. It’s going to be really hard for them to get this game at the pace they like as Baylor just does not play fast at all. Kenpom has them #334 in the nation. Baylor just played a couple of fast paced teams in Oklahoma and Iowa St. and was able to slow the games to the pace they prefer to play at. I just think they are going to run a lot of clock on offense as usual. Also Baylor has a very strong defense and they have held every team on their schedule to under 63 pts except for Florida Gulf Coast. The strong defense along with the slow pace has the Bears playing 7 out of 9 games under the total.
916 Tennessee St. UNDER 139.5
This probably will be a moderately paced game but I don’t expect a whole lot of scoring. Tennessee St. by far has the best defense in the OVC. They have only allowed 2 out of 15 teams to reach an OE of 1.00 this season and I can’t see just an average offensive team in Martin going on the road and doing much scoring here. The problem with Tennessee St. is on the offensive side. They have only averaged 0.94 ppp in their last 9 games despite playing one D3 team and several games against really bad defenses in Lipscomb, Alabama St., Murray St., Kennesaw St. and SEMO. Even though Martin defense is bad they couldn’t score on other bad defenses so I don’t expect them to score here.
Lotta great defense in this one, Guess ya cant always be right, keep up the great work!
Why would you even comment in this thread? It's obviously his "picks" thread. While I am disappointed in myself for hypocritically doing the same thing right now, your comment made absolutely no contribution. I received an email update at the grocery store with your post and assumed I lost the bet, only to get home and realize I won. Wtf was the point of your post??? He won the bet.
I know the Golden Eagles have a very good offense and they have had quite a few games this season where they scored it really well. We get a fairly inflated number here based on all these high scoring games. Last season not one Marquette or Seton Hall total was this high in the conference portion of their schedules. Since Wojciechowski took over as coach in 2014 these teams have played each other 7 times with only one game playing to more than 140 total possessions. The games have played to totals of 135, 141, 146, 111, 150, 143, 133. They played each other this season on January 1 and the game went under the closing total of 154.5 by 20 pts yet we get a total that is 1pt higher today. I’ll take the extra point and play the under again.
The Leathernecks have played every conference game over the posted total this season and they have been going over by an average of 20 pts. Denver also has played every conference game over as well. Neither one of these teams plays much defense while having fairly decent offenses by Summit League standards. I think this Summit Conference games are going to be higher scoring games than what they played in the non-conference games. So far this season these teams have played 16 games and the home teams are averaging 1.15 ppp and the away teams are averaging 1.08 ppp. The overs in these conference games are 13-3 this season and it does not look like the oddsmaker has made an adjustment on these conference totals yet.
I disagree with this move to the under. Over the last six games NDSU games have averaged 152 ppg sure there have been some uptempo opponents in this streak but I think the important thing is how well they have done on the offensive end. They averaged 1.09 ppp and that includes a game where they were 0.77 against Arkansas and only scored 55 pts. South Dakota games have averaged 147 ppg this season and over their last 7 games the scoring average has gone up to 155 ppg. Currently both these teams are scoring very well and the Bison have been playing at a faster pace over the last month of the season as compared to the first six weeks so I think we should get a good pace to this game.
With Jackson-Cartwright back from injury I think this will enable the Wildcats to play a little faster. They play about 2 possessions faster with him on the court than without this season. Earlier this year when they played Sacred Heart the game was played very fast and there wasn’t a lot of free throw attempts or turnovers to add to the pace. This will be the second fastest team that Arizona has played this season and think there is a good chance this one plays to 150 possessions or more. Arizona will get to play at home against a defense that is very bad. The Sun Devils are #265 in defense efficiency, which is last among power conference teams and last by a fairly large margin. Arizona scores at 1.13 in their home games and up against a defense this bad I think there is a good chance they could hit 1.20 or higher and when one team scores that well the games usually go over. ASU games are averaging 164.4 pts this season and they have a way of getting the games up and over with 12 out of 16 lined games going over.
I’m going to give the NDSU over another try here this game although in the last one we needed a last second bucket to win. They still have been scoring really well in these Summit league games. We talked a few days about how high scoring this league is and how the oddsmakers have not caught up yet. Since that last game there have been four Summit League games and they played to totals of 150, 139, 154 , 159 pts. The league as a whole has their games averaging 162 total pts. If we look at the conference only stats with both these teams here they each are well above 1.00 on offense efficiency and also well over 1.00 on the defense efficiency. I have no reason to believe this game does not play fast as all four Denver conference games have had more than 140 total possessions and 3 out of 4 NDSU games have had over 140 and the one that didn’t was the last game against South Dakota that was to close for a late foul fest.
753 Eastern Washington OVER 143.5
Since the middle of December Weber St. has been really good on offense. Over these six games they have averaged 90 ppg and an offense efficiency of 1.28. They should have no problems scoring against Eastern Washington who has the #312 rated defense and just gave up 85 pts to Idaho in their last game which has the second worse offense in the Big Sky. Eastern Washington has an above average offense and has scored at an average offense efficiency of 1.07 and they should be able to get their share of the points as well especially if Weber continues to score as easy as they have lately.
Normally I don’t like to play totals this high over but I think we can make an exception here. When Omaha plays at home they almost always get the pace to where they like and that is super fast. Omaha home games have averaged 155 possessions and there is no reason to think Western Illinois won’t be a willing participant here, since all there conference games have been fast and the game last year between these teams in Omaha played to 162 total possessions. Omaha conference home games have averaged 168 pts the last two years and every game this season except the last one with Fort Wayne which had no late fouling went well over this total.
I’m not sure why this game has taken so much money on the under today. The Summit League games are continuing to fly over the total. The overs in this league are 24-7-1 so far this season. Oral Roberts has played every league game over the total and the have the Summit Leagues best offense with an offense efficiency of 1.17 in conference games while also being the worst on defense with a defense efficiency of 1.18. North Dakota St. scores at a 1.12 rate in conference games while giving up 1.04 on the defensive end. Both these teams are averaging over 140 total possessions in their conference games and I’m not sure how this game stays under if this game gets to 140+ possessions which it should.
Here is another one I just don’t get why it’s moved 5pts lower from the opener. SE Missouri St. has a couple of guys questionable for tonight but they are not that big of a deal. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games with 7 out of the last 8 games going over the total. These teams have averaged 156 ppg in the last eight meetings and most of these games were before the new rules to make scoring easier. Within the conference both of these teams have exceled on offense with SEMO scoring at 1.092 and Murray St. scoring at 1.089. Murray St. offense at home has been really good this year. In their home conference games they put up 92 on Tenn St. and 86 on EKU which both have better defenses than SEMO, while SEMO has allowed 7 out of 10 opponents when on the road to score at a 1.15 OE or better. I think there is a pretty good chance that Murray can put up a really big number here tonight and SEMO should be able to score enough to get this one up and over.
These two teams are just behind Nebraska Omaha and are the 2nd and 4th fastest paced teams in the Summit League. The Leathernecks have played their last four games all around 150 total possessions and this game should get close to that number of possessions here tonight. Some other things to note are that WIU is dead last in the league 3P% defense allowing opponents to shot 43.9%. IUPUI conference games average 163.9 and WIU games average 154.0. The overs within the conference between these two teams are 13-2-1 this season and this should be another high scoring game.
685 Fort Wayne OVER 165
I know this is a high total but think of it this way. Just a week ago we had a total on the ASU/UCLA game of 181 and when we look at the conference only stats between ORU and Fort Wayne these two teams play faster, score better and have worse defenses. I’m going to just keep playing the overs on these ORU games. They have played all eight conference games over this season and they play much higher scoring games at home. There four home games have produce game totals of 182, 176, 170, 189 pts and the lowest scoring one out of these four was against South Dakota which has the best defense in this league. The first game this season between these teams was a 101-92 shootout and I see no reason why this one is not the same type of game. The midweek Summit League overs were 3-1 pushing the conference overs to 27-8-1 this season.
The Cardinal offense has statistically looked better in the three games leading up to their last game against Oregon but those games were against some very poor P12 defenses. The Cardinal offense is 2nd to last in the P12 and only just ahead of an Oregon St. team that has the worse offense in the nation in the power conferences. There last four games against really good defenses they scored 52 against Oregon, 56 against USC, 52 against Arizona, 49 against SMU. California has the #18 defense in the nation and I just don’t see the Cardinal offense doing a lot here. Stanford defense is also very solid they are #32 in the nation and the Bears offense is just average. Both of these teams play on the slower side and I just don’t see a lot of scoring going on in this game.
The Knights have played 8 out of 9 conference games under the total. They have only averaged totals of 124.7 ppg in these conference games so far. In conference games the Knights offense has been terrible failing to get over an offense efficiency of 1.00 in all nine conference games. However their defense has been fairly good and really good when they are playing at home. In 11 home games they only allowed more than 70 pts once. Iowa is likely to be without their leading scorer Jok again this game.
I’m going to just keep playing these ORU games over. The totals in their five home games have averaged 177 points. You got to think Denver should be able to score here as in conference games they are scoring at 1.155 ppp and ORU is allowing 1.179. The first game between these teams went way under this number but the last four Denver games have been really high scoring with totals of 185, 152, 173, 171. If you’re playing a recent string of high scoring games no better opponent to have in ORU to keep that trend going.
Over the last seven games he Cougars have not played much defense. They have allowed opponents to score at a 1.19 rate and tonight face the best offense in the Pac 12. They just played Arizona St. to a 91-83 game and are up against a UCLA team that plays faster, has a much better offense and defense which during the last five games has actually been just about as bad as ASU’s defense. I’ll go ahead and fade this move and play this one over.
Comments
748 Troy UNDER 141
Chicago St. is #312 in tempo and they should be able to slow this game down. Throw in the fact that they are #330 in offense efficiency and we should not expect a lot of points on offense from them. Some of their games that have gone over is from them giving up huge points to their opponents. Troy comes in with a below average offense so we shouldn’t expect them to go crazy on offense.
750 Marquette UNDER 160
Georgetown is playing a little faster this year but when get through the conference games I doubt there pace will be that much different from last year. The games last year between these teams were not that overly fast paced coming in at 146 and 142 total possessions. We have seen Georgetown struggle to score at times this season, subpar offensive games in every game of the Maui tournament. Both these teams are fairly solid on the defense and have defense efficiencies in the top 100. Even simple math would suggest an under here with Marquette games averaging 157.0 pts and Georgetown games averaging 149.3. Also historically playing conference games under these big totals within the power conferences has been a good investment.
Virginia comes into this game dead last in the league in tempo. They have been playing so slow that they are last by nearly 2 possessions slower than the #350 paced team and over 3 possessions slower than last year’s pace. Almost always the pace is faster in these non-conference games and with Virginia playing so slow I got to think this game will be played at a snail’s pace as well. Both of these teams defenses are outstanding, #1 and #2 in the league in defensive efficiency. Both teams defend the three well and both teams issues are on the offensive end. The previous four games between these teams play to totals of 114, 110, 116, 99. Almost always these short totals get bet higher but I think this overnight move is incorrect.
550 Pacific UNDER 136.5
All the previous meetings between these teams produce some high scoring games, but that data doesn’t apply anymore since each of these teams is under the direction of a new coach this year. Both of these teams started the season of playing at a fast pace but as we have neared the start of conference games the pace has dramatically slowed down. The last three Portland games were their slowest paced games of the season despite playing some fairly fast pace teams in Portland St. and Fullerton. Pretty much this same scenario has played out for Pacific as well with their last three games against the board teams being their slowest paced games of the season. The only games where Pacific scored reasonably well were against teams with very weak defenses. I think this is very likely to be a slow pace game and I don’t think that we will get enough scoring from Pacific to get this one over the total.
540 Georgia Southern UNDER 143.5
I don’t think we will see Georgia St. play these conference games at the same pace that the non-conference games were played at. Last season they were #330 in tempo and this season so far they have played almost an entire schedule all against fast pace teams. The last seven games between these teams have been all played at a relatively slow pace and have averaged just 110 pts with the highest scoring contest producing 135 total pts that needed an overtime to get there.
602 Furman UNDER 182
Even though The Citadel plays at the fastest pace I think this total is just too high considering that Furman is one of the slower pace teams in the league and can dictate some of the pace here in this game. Furman has played four games against Baucom coached teams in the last two years and all four of them played under this number. Also of note The Citadel take almost 50% of their FG attempts from the 3pt line. Furman is really good this year at defending the 3pt shot. Opponents are shooting just 29.6% on them, which is good for #26 in the league.
740 Seton Hall UNDER 156
None of the previous games between these teams in the last four years have come close to going over this total. Even last year with the new rules both these teams were playing just as fast but neither game came close to this number. Both teams play excellent defense. Marquette has had some really high scoring games this season that were mainly due to them shooting lights out. These teams play each other twice a year and our very familiar with what each other does. I doubt we see one of those crazy fast paced games here nor do I expect one of these teams to go crazy on offense.
559 Mercer OVER 128
When we look at the tempo in this game there shouldn’t be much pace at all with both these teams ranked in the 300s. But more important than pace is being able to score on offense. Mercer is one of the worst teams in the league on defense. The last five games opponents have averaged 1.28 ppp which is about as bad as it gets. Sure there are some tough teams in this streak are very good but even Wofford and Kennesaw scored with ease. Last season with Mercer playing at the same pace and having a better defense the two games played to 134 and 159 pts. I just got to think that we get a similar style game again this year.
566 Southern Methodist UNDER 132
Last year’s game between these teams was relatively fast paced and high scoring but I think it might have been one of those games that just quite don’t make any sense. Going back the last four years between these teams there were six games and the last years game was the only one played fast. SMU this year is #340 in pace and the last three of their games have all been played super slow, so I think there is very little chance this game is played with any kind of pace. Also the Mustang defense is outstanding and has really picked it up a notch the last month. In their last six games not one opponent has cracked 60 pts and these opponents have only averaged 52 ppg. Its not like these teams were all stiffs either with games against TCU, Stanford and Memphis.
720 Drexel UNDER 157.5
The Dragons have scored well this season so far but they have not played very many tough teams. The two tough out of conference games with Rutgers and St. Joseph’s there offense efficiency was below 1.00 in each game. Both of their games to start of conference play they also failed to reach an OE of 1.00. It should be tough for them to score tonight going up against the second best defense in the CAA. NC Wilmington has scored well this season but this total is at the point where both of these teams are going to have to get near 80 and that’s something neither one has done in the last few games.
722 Northeastern UNDER 130.5
This looks like once again one of those false moves on the overnight line. I’m not sure how anyone can play a Delaware game over at this number considering how consistently awful they have been on offense. They are #324 in the nation and by far the worst in the CAA. Tonight they will be up against one of the better defense in the CAA. Also both of these teams like to play on the slower side and Delaware last two games have played very slow so I don’t expect much pace into tonight’s game.
738 Northern Kentucky UNDER 156
We always get high totals on these NKU games and I’m not sure why they're still this high. They are a middle of the pack pace team and just an average team on the offensive end, yet we always get totals in the 150’s. Their games only average 144 ppg and have only played 4/11 games over, which would suggest this total may be too high. The last two league games NKU was up against Detroit and Oakland who each like to play fast like YSU but neither of these games came close to 140 possessions and I think we should once again tonight get a slower pace game that what you would expect looking at the overall numbers.
778 The Citadel UNDER 187
I’m not sure we get a crazy fast paced game here tonight. Last season both games were played in the low 160’s possessions and just a week ago ETSU played the second fastest team in the league very similar to how Citadel plays and it was once again in the low 160’s pace wise and the game did not come close to this number. Also another factor for the under here is that ETSU has the best defense in the SOCON. They have only allowed a hand full of teams to score better than 1.00 on them and with a total this high your going to need a lot of pace and both teams to score at a high rate.
Tonight i took nc wilm , they did score 76 vs towson and 79 vs elon..am thinking that is pretty close to 80 and they did score 73 vs clemson on the road...i think nc wilm is going to get a whole lot of extra points off turnovers tonight....i dont know how that is going to effect the total , if nc wilm doesnt get to 80 or more, which i think they do pretty easy, am dead in the water on this bet. Good luck on your bet.
Thank you for posting.
756 North Carolina UNDER 164
I think this is just a crazy high total. North Carolina appears to be an under team this season playing 10 out of the 15 lined games under the total. Let’s also not forget despite the Heels playing fast the also have one of the better defenses in the league. Kenpom has them #19 in the nation with opponents only scoring at a 0.91 ppp. I just don’t think this game is going to be all that fast paced. The Wolfpack just played Virginia Tech, which plays just one possession slower than UNC to a 139 possession game. The last five games between these teams played to 132, 124, 121, 137, 129 possessions. I think its very likely we get a similar paced game and with that few possessions it will be tough to get over this big number.
834 Baylor UNDER 151.5
The Cowboy’s games this season have all been pretty much fast paced high scoring games. It’s going to be really hard for them to get this game at the pace they like as Baylor just does not play fast at all. Kenpom has them #334 in the nation. Baylor just played a couple of fast paced teams in Oklahoma and Iowa St. and was able to slow the games to the pace they prefer to play at. I just think they are going to run a lot of clock on offense as usual. Also Baylor has a very strong defense and they have held every team on their schedule to under 63 pts except for Florida Gulf Coast. The strong defense along with the slow pace has the Bears playing 7 out of 9 games under the total.
916 Tennessee St. UNDER 139.5
This probably will be a moderately paced game but I don’t expect a whole lot of scoring. Tennessee St. by far has the best defense in the OVC. They have only allowed 2 out of 15 teams to reach an OE of 1.00 this season and I can’t see just an average offensive team in Martin going on the road and doing much scoring here. The problem with Tennessee St. is on the offensive side. They have only averaged 0.94 ppp in their last 9 games despite playing one D3 team and several games against really bad defenses in Lipscomb, Alabama St., Murray St., Kennesaw St. and SEMO. Even though Martin defense is bad they couldn’t score on other bad defenses so I don’t expect them to score here.
Why would you even comment in this thread? It's obviously his "picks" thread. While I am disappointed in myself for hypocritically doing the same thing right now, your comment made absolutely no contribution. I received an email update at the grocery store with your post and assumed I lost the bet, only to get home and realize I won. Wtf was the point of your post??? He won the bet.
738 Marquette UNDER 155.5
I know the Golden Eagles have a very good offense and they have had quite a few games this season where they scored it really well. We get a fairly inflated number here based on all these high scoring games. Last season not one Marquette or Seton Hall total was this high in the conference portion of their schedules. Since Wojciechowski took over as coach in 2014 these teams have played each other 7 times with only one game playing to more than 140 total possessions. The games have played to totals of 135, 141, 146, 111, 150, 143, 133. They played each other this season on January 1 and the game went under the closing total of 154.5 by 20 pts yet we get a total that is 1pt higher today. I’ll take the extra point and play the under again.
The Leathernecks have played every conference game over the posted total this season and they have been going over by an average of 20 pts. Denver also has played every conference game over as well. Neither one of these teams plays much defense while having fairly decent offenses by Summit League standards. I think this Summit Conference games are going to be higher scoring games than what they played in the non-conference games. So far this season these teams have played 16 games and the home teams are averaging 1.15 ppp and the away teams are averaging 1.08 ppp. The overs in these conference games are 13-3 this season and it does not look like the oddsmaker has made an adjustment on these conference totals yet.
I disagree with this move to the under. Over the last six games NDSU games have averaged 152 ppg sure there have been some uptempo opponents in this streak but I think the important thing is how well they have done on the offensive end. They averaged 1.09 ppp and that includes a game where they were 0.77 against Arkansas and only scored 55 pts. South Dakota games have averaged 147 ppg this season and over their last 7 games the scoring average has gone up to 155 ppg. Currently both these teams are scoring very well and the Bison have been playing at a faster pace over the last month of the season as compared to the first six weeks so I think we should get a good pace to this game.
557 Arizona St. OVER 150
With Jackson-Cartwright back from injury I think this will enable the Wildcats to play a little faster. They play about 2 possessions faster with him on the court than without this season. Earlier this year when they played Sacred Heart the game was played very fast and there wasn’t a lot of free throw attempts or turnovers to add to the pace. This will be the second fastest team that Arizona has played this season and think there is a good chance this one plays to 150 possessions or more. Arizona will get to play at home against a defense that is very bad. The Sun Devils are #265 in defense efficiency, which is last among power conference teams and last by a fairly large margin. Arizona scores at 1.13 in their home games and up against a defense this bad I think there is a good chance they could hit 1.20 or higher and when one team scores that well the games usually go over. ASU games are averaging 164.4 pts this season and they have a way of getting the games up and over with 12 out of 16 lined games going over.
733 North Dakota St. OVER 141.5
I’m going to give the NDSU over another try here this game although in the last one we needed a last second bucket to win. They still have been scoring really well in these Summit league games. We talked a few days about how high scoring this league is and how the oddsmakers have not caught up yet. Since that last game there have been four Summit League games and they played to totals of 150, 139, 154 , 159 pts. The league as a whole has their games averaging 162 total pts. If we look at the conference only stats with both these teams here they each are well above 1.00 on offense efficiency and also well over 1.00 on the defense efficiency. I have no reason to believe this game does not play fast as all four Denver conference games have had more than 140 total possessions and 3 out of 4 NDSU games have had over 140 and the one that didn’t was the last game against South Dakota that was to close for a late foul fest.
753 Eastern Washington OVER 143.5
Since the middle of December Weber St. has been really good on offense. Over these six games they have averaged 90 ppg and an offense efficiency of 1.28. They should have no problems scoring against Eastern Washington who has the #312 rated defense and just gave up 85 pts to Idaho in their last game which has the second worse offense in the Big Sky. Eastern Washington has an above average offense and has scored at an average offense efficiency of 1.07 and they should be able to get their share of the points as well especially if Weber continues to score as easy as they have lately.
Normally I don’t like to play totals this high over but I think we can make an exception here. When Omaha plays at home they almost always get the pace to where they like and that is super fast. Omaha home games have averaged 155 possessions and there is no reason to think Western Illinois won’t be a willing participant here, since all there conference games have been fast and the game last year between these teams in Omaha played to 162 total possessions. Omaha conference home games have averaged 168 pts the last two years and every game this season except the last one with Fort Wayne which had no late fouling went well over this total.
591 Oral Roberts OVER 146.5
I’m not sure why this game has taken so much money on the under today. The Summit League games are continuing to fly over the total. The overs in this league are 24-7-1 so far this season. Oral Roberts has played every league game over the total and the have the Summit Leagues best offense with an offense efficiency of 1.17 in conference games while also being the worst on defense with a defense efficiency of 1.18. North Dakota St. scores at a 1.12 rate in conference games while giving up 1.04 on the defensive end. Both these teams are averaging over 140 total possessions in their conference games and I’m not sure how this game stays under if this game gets to 140+ possessions which it should.
769 Southeast Missouri St. OVER 151.5
Here is another one I just don’t get why it’s moved 5pts lower from the opener. SE Missouri St. has a couple of guys questionable for tonight but they are not that big of a deal. These teams have a history of playing high scoring games with 7 out of the last 8 games going over the total. These teams have averaged 156 ppg in the last eight meetings and most of these games were before the new rules to make scoring easier. Within the conference both of these teams have exceled on offense with SEMO scoring at 1.092 and Murray St. scoring at 1.089. Murray St. offense at home has been really good this year. In their home conference games they put up 92 on Tenn St. and 86 on EKU which both have better defenses than SEMO, while SEMO has allowed 7 out of 10 opponents when on the road to score at a 1.15 OE or better. I think there is a pretty good chance that Murray can put up a really big number here tonight and SEMO should be able to score enough to get this one up and over.
707 IUPUI OVER 151.5
These two teams are just behind Nebraska Omaha and are the 2nd and 4th fastest paced teams in the Summit League. The Leathernecks have played their last four games all around 150 total possessions and this game should get close to that number of possessions here tonight. Some other things to note are that WIU is dead last in the league 3P% defense allowing opponents to shot 43.9%. IUPUI conference games average 163.9 and WIU games average 154.0. The overs within the conference between these two teams are 13-2-1 this season and this should be another high scoring game.
685 Fort Wayne OVER 165
I know this is a high total but think of it this way. Just a week ago we had a total on the ASU/UCLA game of 181 and when we look at the conference only stats between ORU and Fort Wayne these two teams play faster, score better and have worse defenses. I’m going to just keep playing the overs on these ORU games. They have played all eight conference games over this season and they play much higher scoring games at home. There four home games have produce game totals of 182, 176, 170, 189 pts and the lowest scoring one out of these four was against South Dakota which has the best defense in this league. The first game this season between these teams was a 101-92 shootout and I see no reason why this one is not the same type of game. The midweek Summit League overs were 3-1 pushing the conference overs to 27-8-1 this season.
880 California UNDER 129
The Cardinal offense has statistically looked better in the three games leading up to their last game against Oregon but those games were against some very poor P12 defenses. The Cardinal offense is 2nd to last in the P12 and only just ahead of an Oregon St. team that has the worse offense in the nation in the power conferences. There last four games against really good defenses they scored 52 against Oregon, 56 against USC, 52 against Arizona, 49 against SMU. California has the #18 defense in the nation and I just don’t see the Cardinal offense doing a lot here. Stanford defense is also very solid they are #32 in the nation and the Bears offense is just average. Both of these teams play on the slower side and I just don’t see a lot of scoring going on in this game.
728 Rutgers UNDER 145
The Knights have played 8 out of 9 conference games under the total. They have only averaged totals of 124.7 ppg in these conference games so far. In conference games the Knights offense has been terrible failing to get over an offense efficiency of 1.00 in all nine conference games. However their defense has been fairly good and really good when they are playing at home. In 11 home games they only allowed more than 70 pts once. Iowa is likely to be without their leading scorer Jok again this game.
I’m going to just keep playing these ORU games over. The totals in their five home games have averaged 177 points. You got to think Denver should be able to score here as in conference games they are scoring at 1.155 ppp and ORU is allowing 1.179. The first game between these teams went way under this number but the last four Denver games have been really high scoring with totals of 185, 152, 173, 171. If you’re playing a recent string of high scoring games no better opponent to have in ORU to keep that trend going.
567 UCLA OVER 164.5
Over the last seven games he Cougars have not played much defense. They have allowed opponents to score at a 1.19 rate and tonight face the best offense in the Pac 12. They just played Arizona St. to a 91-83 game and are up against a UCLA team that plays faster, has a much better offense and defense which during the last five games has actually been just about as bad as ASU’s defense. I’ll go ahead and fade this move and play this one over.