Observations, stats, discussions......drop em here. Good luck everybody.
Thanks for starting this thread Obi One. I wanted to throw something out on here, though I am not sure how much it is worth: as far as I can tell, Anthony Davis has played against the Spurs 14 times in his career, and against the spread the for those games the Pelicans are 10-2-2. 2 of the 14 games were b2b (as is the game tonight), and the Pelicans covered both of those. I'm not sure this constitutes enough of a reason to bet against the Spurs, but at least maybe it is worth re-considering if you were just about to bet the house on the Spurs...
Thanks for starting this thread Obi One. I wanted to throw something out on here, though I am not sure how much it is worth: as far as I can tell, Anthony Davis has played against the Spurs 14 times in his career, and against the spread the for those games the Pelicans are 10-2-2. 2 of the 14 games were b2b (as is the game tonight), and the Pelicans covered both of those. I'm not sure this constitutes enough of a reason to bet against the Spurs, but at least maybe it is worth re-considering if you were just about to bet the house on the Spurs...
Hey Rook,
I understand where you're coming from, but this is not the way I look at games. By that I mean: I don't care how teams did 2 or 3 years ago vs each other. There were other players, other coaches, and as the NBA quickly evolves, probably even different philosophies as to how the roster should be constructed and which players give you an edge.
As for tonight's matchup, I was very tempted to make Spurs -13.5 a play. That's how bad the current Pelicans team is. I am staying away, after multiple mistakes on defense by Gasol and LMA. The Spurs are also having a lot of trouble with their offensive sets. The spacing they made famous for so long is not there currently. Quitte a few kinks they have to work out.
But watch the game and notice how bad Davis' supporting cast is. It's a pity for such a good player.
OK, fair enough Obi One! I put a tiny bet on Pelicans +13.5. And I hear you on the fact that a lot of targets move in between the accumulation of these statistics. But I am wondering if the thing that stays the same in this case might be that Davis might have the Spurs' number, so to speak...Maybe freak athletes like Davis and Westbrook bother the Spurs to some extent...
my two cents .. I took no +15 at local but wouldve taken 14.5 wa earlier ...not sure how much SA will be into this game and heading to Mia for game tomorrow. Pretty early for me to take games but i have a subset that wins over 65 % ,ill throw a little cash towards this ugly bet.
It seems like there's going to be a tremendous amount of value fading Golden State in their road games. +12 on Phoenix is way too good to pass up, and G.S. is probably going to be a DD favorite in many of these spots.
Spurs just gave the whole NBA the blueprint for defeating the Pelicans:
Contain Anthony Davis and you're golden. Scrubs side-cast not going to beat you.
They really have nothing but the man that's made of glass AD. Don't get fooled by the 71 games he played last year his avg minutes was something like 28 something like that. I think it's going to be a long year for the Pelicans.
Wow the Warriors have gone from breezing through last year's elite opponents to fighting for scraps with the Suns. Maybe they under valued Barbosa, Barnes, Bogut, Ezeli, Speights, etc.
Wow the Warriors have gone from breezing through last year's elite opponents to fighting for scraps with the Suns. Maybe they under valued Barbosa, Barnes, Bogut, Ezeli, Speights, etc.
- The 3 essential players they're missing are Bogut, Ezeli and Speights. Without any rim-protectors, the defensive weaknesses of their perimeter are being exposed. Anybody can drive to the hoop at will almost. Pachulia not the same as Bogut.
- On offense there are still too many turnovers as they're getting accustomed to each other. Also nothing structural.
- I'm certain there's no panic in the team. Player-wise nor coaching-wise. Kerr and Co know that it will take some time to glue the defensive assignments. Profit by betting against them in the correct spots, it will take at least till the end of December for the kinks to get worked out.
Once they commit less turnovers on offense and fix the rim-protection on defense, they'll be a force. But I doubt they'll reach the levels defensively that last year's team had.
The Trailblazers almost always make me regret betting on them, because they can get pretty squirrelly. But they can also play a little bit over their heads for games they have marked on their calendar. I suspect their energy will be more focused on the Warriors tonight rather than on tomorrow night's Suns game at Phoenix. And having watched both teams play a few of times this season, it's kind of hard for me to believe the Trailblazers don't win straight up tonight, unless the Warriors have all of a sudden nailed down their rebounding and defense...
0-2, an inauspicious start, for the rook. I stopped watching after the first half, but It looked like a combination of Portland's role players (like Plumlee, Harkness) getting passive and/or squirrelly, and Curry kind of stepping up his game a little bit. Plus Portland didn't have a lot of size available (Ezekiel, Leonard out) to help them capitalize on the Warriors' rebounding deficiencies. Back to the drawing board for me...
Re the 11/25 Warriors vs Lakers game, I'm picking the under on 233 points. Maybe a little bit dangerous considering the Warriors offensive dominance, but the 2 teams scored over 230 in their game on Wednesday night, and generally those high scores don't repeat the very next game. Luke should be looking for ways to tighten up the Laker D to prevent another 149-point Warriors romp on national TV.
Picked the Cavs last night at -5 thinking it would be -6 or more by today. Bad omen to find out I'm already halfway wrong. But I keep a pretty close eye on the Clippers and unless they all come together to right the ship, (and perhaps even if they do come together and right the ship), it's hard for me understand why the Cavs don't win by double digits. The Chris Paul Clippers haven't played well in Cleveland, and I suspect Griffin has some kind of nagging leg issue that kept him out of the Brooklyn game. There shouldn't be much goofing around by either team because the game is a TNT game and perhaps more importantly, the two team leaders, Paul and Lebron James, will want to wage stiff competition against each other.
My record so far is 1-3, and the best that can be said for it is that I usually am spectacularly wrong rather than losing by a half-court shot in the last second. Which therefore makes me pretty solid fade material. But I'll keep at it until I either get better or go broke...
Trying to get back up in the saddle again...The Rockets are both weary and elated after a double ot win at golden state. The walk into a high altitude gym with little sleep, no rest from last night's game, and probably most importantly, a feeling like they beat the baddest team in the keague so they've earned the right to kick back for a beer or two. They are ripe for a loss, but the oddsmakers anticipated this with a -4 line to bet on Denver. Denver is a petty squirrelly team, so its really hard for me to bet on them for a full game. Looking back at previous close games Houston has won, and overtime games, Houston very frequently appears to have a big lapse in the first quarter after such games. So the bet tonight is Nuggets -1.5 first quarter.
Another spectacularly bad call! Now sitting at 1-4 for the season. Next up, Memphis -2.5 vs Lakers. Lakers went through customs after a drubbing last night by Toronto, flying down to Memphis for the b2b. They should be sleepy tired and dispirited, and should respond poorly to the physical Memphis play.
A win last night by half a point raises my season record up to 2-4. But last night's game was a bookmaker's goal, a coin toss that could have gone either way.
Today the Pacers face the Clippers with some unique side factors influencing the outcome. The Pacers play the Warriors tomorrow night, and the Clippers also play their next game against the Warriors 2 nights from now. So I expect both teams to be looking ahead to some extent, but mainly I expect that if the Clippers develop a strong double digit lead toward the end of the 3rd quarter, the Pacers will throw in the towel and save some energy for tomorrow. So I don't see the Pacers coming in through the back door to cover the spread.
The Clippers are in a poor situation because this is their first game home after a 6-game road trip that stretched all the way to the east coast. They had some nice success vs the Cavaliers and Pelicans their last 2 games, so maybe some complacency setting in to go along with an eye on the Warriors in 2 days.
Obi One
Senior Member
Comments
Thanks for starting this thread Obi One. I wanted to throw something out on here, though I am not sure how much it is worth: as far as I can tell, Anthony Davis has played against the Spurs 14 times in his career, and against the spread the for those games the Pelicans are 10-2-2. 2 of the 14 games were b2b (as is the game tonight), and the Pelicans covered both of those. I'm not sure this constitutes enough of a reason to bet against the Spurs, but at least maybe it is worth re-considering if you were just about to bet the house on the Spurs...
Hey Rook,
I understand where you're coming from, but this is not the way I look at games. By that I mean: I don't care how teams did 2 or 3 years ago vs each other. There were other players, other coaches, and as the NBA quickly evolves, probably even different philosophies as to how the roster should be constructed and which players give you an edge.
As for tonight's matchup, I was very tempted to make Spurs -13.5 a play. That's how bad the current Pelicans team is. I am staying away, after multiple mistakes on defense by Gasol and LMA. The Spurs are also having a lot of trouble with their offensive sets. The spacing they made famous for so long is not there currently. Quitte a few kinks they have to work out.
But watch the game and notice how bad Davis' supporting cast is. It's a pity for such a good player.
Thanks old timer, looking forward to another NBA season!
As usual with Popovich, Parker and Ginobili out, with eye on b2b.
All info already in the line off course. Personally staying away. Coinflip IMO.
Contain Anthony Davis and you're golden. Scrubs side-cast not going to beat you.
They really have nothing but the man that's made of glass AD. Don't get fooled by the 71 games he played last year his avg minutes was something like 28 something like that. I think it's going to be a long year for the Pelicans.
- The 3 essential players they're missing are Bogut, Ezeli and Speights. Without any rim-protectors, the defensive weaknesses of their perimeter are being exposed. Anybody can drive to the hoop at will almost. Pachulia not the same as Bogut.
- On offense there are still too many turnovers as they're getting accustomed to each other. Also nothing structural.
- I'm certain there's no panic in the team. Player-wise nor coaching-wise. Kerr and Co know that it will take some time to glue the defensive assignments. Profit by betting against them in the correct spots, it will take at least till the end of December for the kinks to get worked out.
Once they commit less turnovers on offense and fix the rim-protection on defense, they'll be a force. But I doubt they'll reach the levels defensively that last year's team had.
Today the Pacers face the Clippers with some unique side factors influencing the outcome. The Pacers play the Warriors tomorrow night, and the Clippers also play their next game against the Warriors 2 nights from now. So I expect both teams to be looking ahead to some extent, but mainly I expect that if the Clippers develop a strong double digit lead toward the end of the 3rd quarter, the Pacers will throw in the towel and save some energy for tomorrow. So I don't see the Pacers coming in through the back door to cover the spread.
The Clippers are in a poor situation because this is their first game home after a 6-game road trip that stretched all the way to the east coast. They had some nice success vs the Cavaliers and Pelicans their last 2 games, so maybe some complacency setting in to go along with an eye on the Warriors in 2 days.
Placing my bet first half on the Pacers +7.