Betting Talk

paddyboy longshot futures thread

paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
edited April 2017 in Sports Betting
I like to play Futures bets because I find there are often good line shopping opportunities, more time to react to lines, and I find more dopamine per dollar wagered when I can follow a Longshot over the ups and downs of a season. I'm going to start posting my new futures here, mostly longshots where I see EV.

Maple Leafs at 50-1 (5D) to win the 2017 Eastern Conference, 1 units

Bookies have Toronto as the singular worst team in the NHL after last place finish in 2016, but goalie and 1st line have high variance around them, so I'll give it a play after seeing Matthews' 4 goals in his debut. 5d line shown is 100-1 for the stanley cup which doesnt have as much EV as 50-1 to win the conference so I'll pass on that.

Maple Leafs at 50-1 (BM) to win the 2017 Atlantic Division 2 units

This division is pretty wide open, with no dominant team. TB as the favorite who is only 7th ranked in the NHL.

Comments

  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    Through week 5, the Philadelphia Eagles are Football Outsiders #2 ranked team in the NFL in terms of efficiency. Massey Peabody has them at 7th in terms of point spread power ranking. They are 2.5 point home dogs against the Vikings. So a 40%-45% chance of beating the top ranked team and if they do I would imagine they would be somewhere in the 12-1 or 15-1 odds to win the superbowl (in the same category as Boys, Steelers, Packers, Falcons). 5d has them at 57-1 so I think there is value there.

    Philadelphia Eagles at 57-1 (5Dimes) to win Super Bowl 51, 1 unit
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    San Diego Chargers are 2-4. 4th place in a division with Denver (4-2), Oakland (4-2), and KC (3-2). Despite the record their efficiency on the field is equal to Denver and KC (and better than Oakland) and in their 4 losses they lost by 1, 3, 4, and another in OT. Denver is fave here and SD has beaten them pretty handily. The team has blown some big leads (17 points in KC...).

    There are holes in the team but when you are betting longshots you dont have to think too hard about the negatives. The longshot futures game is more about finding bad lines (which happen much more often than single-game lines). Here we have two of my books with San Diego at 16-1 and 17.5 to 1 and 5D has them at 27.5 to 1.

    One other consideration when betting is to calculate the vig on the futures bet. In this case all the books effectively take 10 points on this bet if they are in balance. That gives me comfort that the differential in the pricing is actually an arbitragable anomaly rather than the other two books just having bad pricing.

    San Diego Chargers at 27.5 to 1 to win AFC West, 2 units
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    I understand the inefficiencies of futures plays, because your money is tied up. But for those that think of their long-term investments as an alternative source of 'bankroll', the investment timeframe is acceptable. Buy Low and hopefully cash high. Wisconsin is the USA Today 10 seed to start the season in Men's hoops. Mainly based on them not graduating any seniors from last year when they got to the sweet 16. I checked 3 sources that all have them between 18-1 and 22-1. BM has them on sale at 1/2 off so I'll grab a little EV and hopefully have a rooting interest in the tournament.

    Wisconsin Badgers at 38.5 to 1 to win the NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship, 1 unit
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    EVan Mcmullin has about a 40% chance of winning Utah and with the race tightening there are a lot of scenarios where Clinton and Trump end up 268-264 or 269-263, etc. I put this at a 2% outcome. In that event, the race goes to the House of Reps where there are 50 votes cast one for each state delegation until someone gets 26 votes. Only the top 3 electoral finishers can receive votes. At this point McMullin will be a household name and there will probably be 30 Rep and 20 Dem states. Utah won't vote Trump, Wisconsin could flip, but very unlikely for Hillary to win. The republicans could work a deal with the Dems to agree on McMullin. Hillary will have no chance, and individual Rep members will have cover because the delegation votes, not the members. You'd only have to flip a handful of individual members in places like MI, CO, PA whose electorates presumably had rejected Trump by wide majorities to support a true conservative. I think if the contingent house election goes forward there is 15% Clinton, 35% mcmullin, 50% trump. So I get fair value mcmullin at around 150-1. Pounded 5d at$25 until I got a unit.

    Evan McMullin to be elected President at 500-1 for 1 unit.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Update:
    Chargers and Eagles wont make the playoffs and Trump won the presidency, so (0-3), -4 units.

    In play bets for Maple Leafs have gained a little EV as they are middle of the pack after slow start. And Wisconsin has performed about as expected, so the bargain price got some EV.

    New entry is to parlay the winners of the AFC and NFC. I like the path for Pittsburgh, a hot team who will probably face backup QBs for Miami and Oakland. They might even get a home game in the championship as Pats will probably have to get past a dangerous KC. Atlanta I'm not convinced about but I like the over-hype on Dallas' young players. What I really like about the bet is the price seems slightly off at 29.25-1 on 5d. If we did a parlay on BM this would pay 20-1. A parlay on 5d it would pay 25-1, so I will take 29.25. Also would love to see mighty Pats fall, so this aligns with my betting interest.

    Pittsburgh to face Atlanta in the Super Bowl, 2 units at 29.25 to 1.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    Update: Falcons/Steelers didnt work out, so (0-4), -6 units.

    This one isnt much of a longshot, but I think it is a valuable future bet on 5D. Who will score most goals in the Champions League this year. At beginning of round of 16 Messi had it all wrapped up, with home/away sets for 4 more rounds, he had 10 goals and 2nd place was at 6. And his team had the most expected games remaining. But due to PSG's 4-0 drubbing of Barcelona, Messi is likely to play only one more game and the second place guy, Cavani of PSG is likely to continue to play at least 2 more games. Cavani has averaged 1.08 goals per game including his league play (allbeit against soft French teams), and Messi is nearly the exact same but against tougher opponents.

    I think Cavani should be expected to play 3.5 more remaining games than Messi and has to make up a 3 goal deficit. I dont think he'll do it but I put it at around 20% chance of a tie and 20% chance of him beating Messi.

    Another way of looking at it is that PSG has about a 23% chance of making final. That would give Cavani 6 games to make up the 3 goal deficit.

    At 7.5 to 1 I think there is value her. Small payoff compared to most of my plays so I'll put 4 units on it. Dead heat rules apply.

    Edinson Cavani to score most goals in Champions League 2016/2017, 4 units at 7.5 to 1.
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    0-4, -6 units

    Mexico is the 6th ranked team in the World Baseball Classic and has the easiest group in round 1 as well as playing the games in Mexico. The 2nd round and finals are tough because only 2 of US, Mexico and DR will advance, but LA and San Diego venues are essentially home games. They don't have a complete lineup of hitters but have full MLB roster of pitching, especially relievers which are important due to extra-innings rule. Breezed through qualifiers outscoring opponents 25 runs to 3. Mexico has done poorly in this competition in the past which may be why the price is available.

    1 unit on Mexico to win 2017 World Baseball Classic at 30-1
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    0-4, 6 units waiting on 9 units:

    Maple Leafs at 50-1 (5D) to win the 2017 Eastern Conference, 1 units
    Maple Leafs at 50-1 (BM) to win the 2017 Atlantic Division 2 units
    Wisconsin Badgers at 38.5 to 1 to win the NCAA Men's College Basketball Championship, 1 unit
    Edinson Cavani to score most goals in Champions League 2016/2017, 7.5 to 1 for 4 units
    Mexico to win 2017 World Baseball Classic at 30-1, 1 unit
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited February 2017
    Adding also Chinese Taipei at 100-1 on 5d to win the World Baseball Classic. Taiwan is the 4th ranked team in the world but takes these competitions seriously, People shy away from this team because one of the 4 pro teams is boycotting the competition. They also have to play SK in SK and Japan in Japan if they make it out of the first group stage. Their group is tough because Israel has a bunch of Americans on it now, Netherlands has played tough in the past and SK is the 3rd ranked team. In the past this team would have been 20-1, and with one-game knockouts, their young phenom pitcher could make a difference. My math is that they are 50/50 to get out of 1st group stage and 30% chance to get out of 2nd group stage. That would mean buying them at 15-1 in the final four in LA, which I'll take all day.

    0.5 units on Chinese Taipei to win 2017 World Baseball Classic at 100-1
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited April 2017
    Important warning here: This thread follows the principles of fair recording of bets but not the standards of Betting Forum

    Record is now 0-9, 15 units, waiting on:
    Maple Leafs to win the Eastern Conference 50-1, 1 unit


    Adding here two bets on the French election, the initial primary that results in two candidates on Sunday, and the election two years later. A late break by a leftist candidate Melenchon has put him in 4th but just a few points below first place in the polling. The leftist vote has been split between two candidates and Melenchon should continue to move up on election day as people don't throw away their vote on the guy who is distant 5th in polls. Sportsbetting.ag has a market on this:

    Jean-Luc Melenchon to win first round of French Presidential Election at 16-1, 2 units


    Melenchon would also be favored if he faced off against the Trumpist Marine Le Pen in the final election, so there is value here:

    Jean-Luc Melenchon to win French Presidential Election 14-1, 2 units.
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