Hillary Clinton, Lennox Lewis, Philadelphia Eagles
homerplayer
Senior Member
been a while gents. this needed to be stated in black and white though.
no secret i think clinton sucks as a human being and more so as a politician, but i have no idea what the fuck people are looking at right now. she should be -400, minimum. reminds me of 2 other times when i was just yapping endlessly about mortgage your house and bet everything you can on _________.
first time was 2002 when an old, broken down, skill depleted, powerless tyson challenged lennox lewis. think lewis went off at -200-ish. i couldn't believe that line. it was one of those instances when i knew soon as the event ended people would finally wake from their mass delusion.
second time was november 26, 2007. feeley playing for the injured mcnabb and the pats were favored by 22.5 or some insane number. same thing. i remember having the philly ML in that, bastards. did clean up on the +22.5 or whatever the hell it was though!! same thing. shooting off my mouth trying to wake people from their dream state.
when this election ends and clinton wins by double digits in the popular vote and trump struggles to get to 200 electoral votes, that 300+ million americans hindsight will be 20/20 and mofo's will be kicking themselves for not betting their left testicle on it.
just saying i got tons of open ended pars closed with Dems and keep buying positions every chance i get.
this thing shouldn't even be close...clinton is running against a legit, real life cartoon character...which might say something about her quality as a candidate....she is like peyton manning drawing rex grossman as his opponent to win first superbowl....and this shouldn't be considered a political thread at all...in the real world there is no chance this guy will be the most powerful man in the world come january 2017.
gl
no secret i think clinton sucks as a human being and more so as a politician, but i have no idea what the fuck people are looking at right now. she should be -400, minimum. reminds me of 2 other times when i was just yapping endlessly about mortgage your house and bet everything you can on _________.
first time was 2002 when an old, broken down, skill depleted, powerless tyson challenged lennox lewis. think lewis went off at -200-ish. i couldn't believe that line. it was one of those instances when i knew soon as the event ended people would finally wake from their mass delusion.
second time was november 26, 2007. feeley playing for the injured mcnabb and the pats were favored by 22.5 or some insane number. same thing. i remember having the philly ML in that, bastards. did clean up on the +22.5 or whatever the hell it was though!! same thing. shooting off my mouth trying to wake people from their dream state.
when this election ends and clinton wins by double digits in the popular vote and trump struggles to get to 200 electoral votes, that 300+ million americans hindsight will be 20/20 and mofo's will be kicking themselves for not betting their left testicle on it.
just saying i got tons of open ended pars closed with Dems and keep buying positions every chance i get.
this thing shouldn't even be close...clinton is running against a legit, real life cartoon character...which might say something about her quality as a candidate....she is like peyton manning drawing rex grossman as his opponent to win first superbowl....and this shouldn't be considered a political thread at all...in the real world there is no chance this guy will be the most powerful man in the world come january 2017.
gl
Comments
Internet / -1 Aug XXX TNT
2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - WINNING PARTY
[18004] DEMOCRATIC PARTY -240
Sadly one of these two have to win.......I think ruling Hillary out of the cartoon character club is a little unfair but yes , she is a lock of epic proportions.
GL
i thank you for that Ron, miss BT a ton, but stupid busy. been too long though.
ethics aside, i think this question of health is going to depreciate the line some, at least i hope it does for the next 2-3 weeks. she is doing her best to get him back in the polls with the #deplorable comment. if i'm not mistaken she is younger than trump?
hoping for some big over reaction by the markets, saw a thread on page one here of BT mentioning clinton under -200 now. and i am also splitting my stake between HRC wins and Dems to win.
gl to us!
I'd stick with all Dem from here on out. worth the few extra cents imo. GL
Politics Other Sports Money Line
US Presidential Election - Winner
Tue 11/8 101 Hillary Clinton wins Election -485
8:00AM 102 Field wins Presidential Election +385
Disclaimer: the opening line was a joke. it's hard to win money, so let's celebrate the big ones that come home.
Logic is that Dems need a 30 seat move, which has happened 2 of last 5 elections and 3 of last 11. Observers think Dems need to win by 7% for congressional ballots nationally. Which is about where polls will have them now after the weekend's events have baked in. I think the 'bake' puts Hillary up by 9% and lands her somewhere near 370 electoral votes.
I'll be staying up very late on election night to root for Hilary to win Alaska which I got at 30-1 last month (on a wild hunch that Alaskan voters are anti-authoritarian, mostly women, and overweight libertarian) and bid them down until about 12-1 when they pulled it.
I bet this a few weeks ago, the line has not moved that much compared to the outright winner, still good value here at + 180 ?
It has been unchanged at +190 for a few days on 5dimes. I think there is some value there but I wouldnt bet it at even money. It requires Hillary to sweep the battleground states (which she would if the election were held today). She would also have to get 47 votes from the following: FiveThirtyEight odds of winning each state also shown, which are low-ball because the polls dont have last weekend's meltdown built in.
Colorado 9 (84%)
Nevada 6 (73%)
Iowa 6 (55%)
Arizona 11 (48%)
Alaska 3 (30%)
Georgia 16 (29%)
South Carolina 9 (15%)
Texas 38 (13%)
Indiana 11 (13%)
To give you an idea of how hard it is to turn Georgia (which is the hardest state that you'd need to turn to get to 370, Clinton trails by 3% today, before the new polls come in. I think by Friday the expected current polling will have her at 374. The reason I wont take the bet at even money is that I expect some reflexivity as the last 2 weeks fade from memory. At +190 I'd keep accumulating.
Based on the current line (+180/-260), it's obviously a non-zero chance. Granted it's just a $100 limit right now at 5D, but I'm sure you could bang it many times over the next month if you really think the chance is that low.
I may..I'd rather shove in on a few state match-ups that may provide more value...
Line increased on 5d from +190 to +210. Updated stats from FiveThirtyEight
Assuming Hilary gets a Battleground sweep, aka Obama's states plus North Carolina (347 electoral votes). She needs additional 23 votes from the red state list below to beat 369.5. I think updated polling will show that if held today she'd be front runner in Alaska and Georgia and Nebraska 2nd. That would put her 3 votes shy of the target, which is why its 2-1 and not even money.
Nebraska 2nd District: 1 vote (51%)
Alaska 3 (34%)
Georgia 16 (32%)
Mizzou 10 (22%)
South Dakota 3 (20%)
South Carolina 9 (15%)
Montana 3 (13%)
Texas 38 (12%)
Indiana 15 (11%)
Utah 2 (2%) - I think this is in play now because a new poll including republican Evan McMullin this morning has Hilary and Trump both at 26% and McMullin at 22%. THe poll isnt from a well known polling firm but it is from a Utah company and sponsored by a newspaper, so I'd take with a grain of salt - excluding McMullin as many polls do, probably flatters Trump's results.
Bookmaker just put up some individual state lines. Was hoping for value in states with southern/religious sensibilties as their has been no state- or region-specific polling there yet to gauge the videotape from last week (or any future 'values' hits, like Ms. Teen America news: "Trump brags about spying on his nude underage girl employees while they change into work uniform. Multiple girl victims independently confirm that it was no idle boast" for example.
But the lines have Clinton favored in Arizona -132 and I bet Georgia +173 which I think is even money but you could have had 5-1 on this a few weeks ago.
Best bet I think is Utah +375. Written off by Clinton but a recent unaccredited poll has it neck and neck. Most religious state in the union, highly educated and high information voters.
Texas is a state with very low voter turnout which I think is an opportunity for Clinton's superior ground game. Diverse TV markets are also top-10 religious. 12 and 16 points republican victories last 2 years tough to overcome, but sparse polling puts this at a 6 point margin. Kaine recently campaigned there. I should be paid more for this longshot hunch but see some value at +460.
On the other side of things I think NH could be vulnerable, a quirky state that was only won by 6 points last time. Alot of very close polling and Trump is spending in the state, one of the few places he has organization, Hilary pulled Sanders from campaigning there. Non-religious, high turnout, high information voters, republican senate candidate doing well on the ticket. +475 has EV and hedges Clinton bets somewhat.
These prices IMO are fully baking in the polls that included last Friday/Sat/Sunday before the poll and after the videotape. I think we have enough data now to say that things got very bad (10% nationally trailing) last weekend but he had a bounce back due to the debate and aftermath. I think all the value is on the Trump side of the equation with one exception:
Arizona -130, not much recent polling at all but 538 has it literally at 50/50. I'm convicted that Hillary ground game, technology, and local party support trumps the ragtag Trump operation with little RNC backing and that this won't be baked into the polls. For example, in Florida the democrats have registered 500K voters, the republicans 60K. That 440K edge is a six point swing and typically these voters wont make their way into the "likely voter" category that the polls look at. So I like Arizona -130 if BM wasnt offering -117.
Two best ideas for Trump.
+485 NH for Trump. Polling is tight, senate race, The only place where Trump has ground organization, he's visited a number of times. HIghly educated irreligious voters, no minorities. Trump absolutely crushed crowded field in the primaries. The good pollsters have this at 2-3 points, the bad ones have it at 7-9 points. Love that variance and riding the trump train in NH. Only at +420 at BM
+600 WI for Trump. Hilary got trounced in the primaries. Trump is going to war with local boy Paul Ryan and being defended by Preibus. But I think this kind of heat in a state where Scott Walker is supporting Trump doesnt necessarily help Hilary with an 8 point lead. It creates more variance in potential outcomes. I'll stay away from this for now. No polls have this outside of a 6-10 lead, but the good pollsters are at 6 and the bad ones are at 10. McMullin is not on the ballot here which I think could help Trump here. I'll pass on this but may take +755 at BM.
Disappointed that South Carolina not shown here. Big new registration/early voting push, Hillary announced new ad spending, state just announced delta in asian/hispanic registration equal to >1% of electorate. Religious sensibilities, Can still be had for +370 on BKR, I'll take my business there.
I disagree on AZ..15,000 people(over half were deplorable) showed up to a Trump rally in Prescott Valley AZ..this is two hours north of Phx. A recent poll does show it as a dead heat. Also keep in mind the Pro Sheriff Joe folks and Anti-pot people will be out as well. We also have early voting out here, which can only help Trump. Regarding the minorities I think they won't vote in large numbers due to the issues had out here during the primaries.
Trumps danger is that he doesn't get turnout because someone who was going to hold their nose and support him finds it easier to just stay home as the credible sex accusations pile up. So I think Pot gets that voter to the polls. Why do u say early voting can only help Trump? Not challenging you, just looking for clarification.
You're lucky. I can get $2.50 down.
No problem..Paddy. I just feel the quicker Trump can get folks to the polls the better off he is..plus early/mail in voters tend to be older and lean more GOP. I do feel there is a point when people will tune out the women coming out against Trump. Myself I question why not one of these women came out until a month before the election. I mean Trump has been a big deal for quite a while, questionable timing..IMO. Parts of AZ are very libertarian and the dope smoking college kids may vote yes on Prop 205, but true Libertarians feel it creates too much Gov could vote against it. I will say the poll on pot being pretty much even though did surprise me. I have also lived/been in swing states that were close and seen a huge ground game put on my the Dems. Not seeing that here, hardly any yard signs for either Hillary or Trump.
Oh yeah, what would a sexual misconduct claim be with the appearance of Gloria Alred? She makes Glenn Lerner look like a P.Defender.
Yeah, her and all the others are just making it up, LMAO