Mexican peso dropped 2% in response to the FBI probe news. Thats about how much it moved in response to the pussy-grabbing videotape. HIllary down to -310 on 5d. Looks like they took down their state lines in response.
BM has all lines open still, you can get Trump at +323.
I just noticed a new line up for Hillary in Utah +850 which seems interesting, they have it near even money for Trump and McMullin. I might give it a try.
For what is worth, I live in Raleigh, NC and the early voting lines are over an hour long. Mostly white people. Raleigh is a very diverse city and has a lot of liberals. Our city council and school board KILL us. I saw a lot of Trumpism. In the rural parts of NC, Trump will clean up. Lots of lost jobs and people that have probably not even voted before until Trump.
Wondering if with all the early voting taking place the state odds are down for good?
I'm not sure. I'd like to vote a contrarian idea, that black turnout is not in fact "down" but that Trump turnout is up both from very energized non-black supporters/detractors. In Georgia for example black turnout has plummeted as a share of the vote but is actually up quite a bit. In Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and California we see very big turnout and in those states I feel you have both large populations of anti-trump (Hispanics and their supporters) and Trump enthusiasts. Blacks dont fall into either category so there are less of them by comparison. In states that are a little less redneck-y and less Hispanic like Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio we see turnout down.
The data is a little clouded because of North Carolina where anti-black voter suppression has taken its toll. But in general I think that the surge in Georgia is legit (as there are few Hispanics+supporters) for Trump. In Texas we have seen early voter turnout soar from the big (i.e. Hispanic) counties. Overall it has grown by 40%. Registrations have increased by 1.2 million. Texas' Hispanics have historically much lower turnout than other states in part because it is not competitive on the national level, so there is more room for them to grow than anywhere else. We dont know the mix of registrations, but now 45% of Texans have Hispanic last names. So a 8 point lead in the polls is about 600K votes. To give you an idea of how small that is, this time last year there were 1.4 million votes cast and now there are 2.5. If I can get 5-1 on Hillary I will take it.
Conclusion: overweight Trump in Georgia, Hillary in Texas and Arizona.
this is the most unpredictable election that I can recall..anyone with a sizable stake riding on the outcome, myself included, should be very nervous
1. I have my kids' future riding on this thing. Not to mention their college fund! (jk) Seriously I am absolutely fearful that the world is going to come crashing down on November 8th, never felt this way before about an election.
2. Yes blacks are certainly anti-trump but I put them in a different demo category for this analysis.
3. State lines are back up on Bookmaker. I think the interesting ones are:
Clinton to win Texas +750
Clinton to win Arizona +140
Trump New Hampshire +377
Does trump cause more uncertainty than Hillary victory with potential for indictment or impeachment?
Absolutely. Clinton impeachment is a nonevent, replaced with bland Democrat, as was her husband. Trump on the other hand threatens executive shutdown of global trade and risks us credit rating with unprecedented deficits. Much bigger than the Bush 2009 deficit and that is every year of his term.
anyone near retirement age holding significant 401k's should be voting Clinton...markets hate volatility and Trump would roil stocks worldwide
Same was said if the "Leave" won in Britain. FTSE up from Brexit vote. The uncertainty from a Trump win would cause volatility, but nobody knows if it will have a long term negative effect on the markets. I actually think Trump would be good for markets short-term. Increased fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and corporate tax reform. Any one of those things would cause market to go from lower left to upper right, throw in all 3...
Same was said if the "Leave" won in Britain. FTSE up from Brexit vote. The uncertainty from a Trump win would cause volatility, but nobody knows if it will have a long term negative effect on the markets. I actually think Trump would be good for markets short-term. Increased fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and corporate tax reform. Any one of those things would cause market to go from lower left to upper right, throw in all 3...
I agree with your point on rewriting the tax codes but caution that even the Republicans arent going to go along with Trump's crazy plan.
Wall Street loves deficit spending and shifting the tax burden from corporates to personal filers. What it doesnt like is deregulation. There is a big correlation with deregulation and long term GDP growth, but the capital markets prefer regulation which tends to advantage large companies and provide a barrier to new entrants. Obamacare massively increased regulation of health insurers whose stocks soared, as expected. Deregulating the drug industry for example would cause it to plummet as the US started paying the same rates that the Canadians/French/British do for drugs. Trump says he is going to end regulations on coal and that somehow that industry is going to thrive. The fact is that deregulation of the extraction industry 'drill baby drill!' has put many more coal miners out of work replaced by frackers. In general, if all of the companies have to pay $5 extra to ensure food safety, removing that $5 cost doesnt impact wall street profits at all, in theory the savings would be passed along.
The real risk here is Trump executive actions: if he starts suing other countries for unfair trade practices, enacting limitations on exports, controlling money transfers to Mexico, throwing millions off their healthcare plans, jailing political rivals, suing newspapers, stopping companies from hiring foreign workers, banning foreign travel by Muslims. These are the things that make us into Russia or Japan, economies that are stagnant for a generation. And this is just what he's promised to do to make America Great, I am putting aside all the missteps that an uninformed man with an authoritarian mindset and insecure about his masculinity surrounded by lackeys might do by accident.
Following closely the early vote which Florida updates daily. Biggest voting day yesterday between mail ballots processed that were sent over the weekend plus in person. 50% of the vote is in. Here's whats most important:
Republican 40.0%
Democrat 39.8%
Other: 20.2%
Republicans beat Dems by 12K votes as of Thursday AM. Weds 17K, Tuesday 16K, Monday 8K. If we are looking at 2012 the Democrats had a 30K or so lead at this point, growing to 100K by election day and Obama ended up winning by 73K.
Requested vote by mail ballots. These are people who took the time to request a ballot and are getting tons of phone calls daily urging them to return them. The split is 41% Dem, 34% Rep, 25%. This is an 84K potential net votes to Democrats if they each returned their ballots at the same rate. Looking at the 2014 senate race I think the Republicans are better at returning them, so I'd expect that maybe this could be a source of 40K vote gain for Democrats.
There is a clear trend in the state where the early news that Republicans and non-Blacks were turning out in force is reverting, in other words this seems like a shift to unsustainable early voting rather than fully attributed to a higher overall turnout.
The last 10 polls in Florida average to Clinton by 0.5%.
Using FiveThirtyEight adjusted they average to Trump by 0.9%
Using FiveThirtyEight full methodology has Trump by 0.2%
I think on election day it is a toss-up, probably with 1 or 2% either way as to more republicans vs. democrats. The question you should ask yourself is what will the independents do. It is noteworthy that the independents are
64% white, 6% black, and 20% hispanic.
The rest of the electorate is
68% white, 12% black, and 14%
The NPAs are also younger than the party-affiliated.
So I think that if Democrats can take a registration lead into election day (they are at +2K now), they should be favored.
Twitter sphere seems uber confident about Nevada going to Clinton as most of votes are in and it shows increases in Asian and Hispanic voters, a little better Dem to Rep ratio than when Obama won in 2012. The narrative consistent with other states like Florida and Texas where the surge comes from low-propensity voters rather than consistent voters switching from Election Day to early votes. Despite dead heat polling, -350 price unenticing. But...
The senate race has Cortez masto slightly leading Heck in the polls. Hard to see how Clinton rides a Hispanic wave without this Latina doing even better. Was available for 1k at -149 on BM.
Twitter sphere seems uber confident about Nevada going to Clinton as most of votes are in and it shows increases in Asian and Hispanic voters, a little better Dem to Rep ratio than when Obama won in 2012. The narrative consistent with other states like Florida and Texas where the surge comes from low-propensity voters rather than consistent voters switching from Election Day to early votes. Despite dead heat polling, -350 price unenticing. But...
The senate race has Cortez masto slightly leading Heck in the polls. Hard to see how Clinton rides a Hispanic wave without this Latina doing even better. Was available for 1k at -149 on BM.
Dems under 25.5 states (not including DC) around even money. Dems would need to sweep the swing states and grab back Arizona or Ohio and not lose anything.
Comments
Mexican peso dropped 2% in response to the FBI probe news. Thats about how much it moved in response to the pussy-grabbing videotape. HIllary down to -310 on 5d. Looks like they took down their state lines in response.
BM has all lines open still, you can get Trump at +323.
I just noticed a new line up for Hillary in Utah +850 which seems interesting, they have it near even money for Trump and McMullin. I might give it a try.
I'm not sure. I'd like to vote a contrarian idea, that black turnout is not in fact "down" but that Trump turnout is up both from very energized non-black supporters/detractors. In Georgia for example black turnout has plummeted as a share of the vote but is actually up quite a bit. In Texas, Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and California we see very big turnout and in those states I feel you have both large populations of anti-trump (Hispanics and their supporters) and Trump enthusiasts. Blacks dont fall into either category so there are less of them by comparison. In states that are a little less redneck-y and less Hispanic like Colorado, Iowa, Nevada, and Ohio we see turnout down.
The data is a little clouded because of North Carolina where anti-black voter suppression has taken its toll. But in general I think that the surge in Georgia is legit (as there are few Hispanics+supporters) for Trump. In Texas we have seen early voter turnout soar from the big (i.e. Hispanic) counties. Overall it has grown by 40%. Registrations have increased by 1.2 million. Texas' Hispanics have historically much lower turnout than other states in part because it is not competitive on the national level, so there is more room for them to grow than anywhere else. We dont know the mix of registrations, but now 45% of Texans have Hispanic last names. So a 8 point lead in the polls is about 600K votes. To give you an idea of how small that is, this time last year there were 1.4 million votes cast and now there are 2.5. If I can get 5-1 on Hillary I will take it.
Conclusion: overweight Trump in Georgia, Hillary in Texas and Arizona.
1. I have my kids' future riding on this thing. Not to mention their college fund! (jk) Seriously I am absolutely fearful that the world is going to come crashing down on November 8th, never felt this way before about an election.
2. Yes blacks are certainly anti-trump but I put them in a different demo category for this analysis.
3. State lines are back up on Bookmaker. I think the interesting ones are:
Clinton to win Texas +750
Clinton to win Arizona +140
Trump New Hampshire +377
Same was said if the "Leave" won in Britain. FTSE up from Brexit vote. The uncertainty from a Trump win would cause volatility, but nobody knows if it will have a long term negative effect on the markets. I actually think Trump would be good for markets short-term. Increased fiscal stimulus, deregulation, and corporate tax reform. Any one of those things would cause market to go from lower left to upper right, throw in all 3...
I agree with your point on rewriting the tax codes but caution that even the Republicans arent going to go along with Trump's crazy plan.
Wall Street loves deficit spending and shifting the tax burden from corporates to personal filers. What it doesnt like is deregulation. There is a big correlation with deregulation and long term GDP growth, but the capital markets prefer regulation which tends to advantage large companies and provide a barrier to new entrants. Obamacare massively increased regulation of health insurers whose stocks soared, as expected. Deregulating the drug industry for example would cause it to plummet as the US started paying the same rates that the Canadians/French/British do for drugs. Trump says he is going to end regulations on coal and that somehow that industry is going to thrive. The fact is that deregulation of the extraction industry 'drill baby drill!' has put many more coal miners out of work replaced by frackers. In general, if all of the companies have to pay $5 extra to ensure food safety, removing that $5 cost doesnt impact wall street profits at all, in theory the savings would be passed along.
The real risk here is Trump executive actions: if he starts suing other countries for unfair trade practices, enacting limitations on exports, controlling money transfers to Mexico, throwing millions off their healthcare plans, jailing political rivals, suing newspapers, stopping companies from hiring foreign workers, banning foreign travel by Muslims. These are the things that make us into Russia or Japan, economies that are stagnant for a generation. And this is just what he's promised to do to make America Great, I am putting aside all the missteps that an uninformed man with an authoritarian mindset and insecure about his masculinity surrounded by lackeys might do by accident.
Republican 40.0%
Democrat 39.8%
Other: 20.2%
Republicans beat Dems by 12K votes as of Thursday AM. Weds 17K, Tuesday 16K, Monday 8K. If we are looking at 2012 the Democrats had a 30K or so lead at this point, growing to 100K by election day and Obama ended up winning by 73K.
Requested vote by mail ballots. These are people who took the time to request a ballot and are getting tons of phone calls daily urging them to return them. The split is 41% Dem, 34% Rep, 25%. This is an 84K potential net votes to Democrats if they each returned their ballots at the same rate. Looking at the 2014 senate race I think the Republicans are better at returning them, so I'd expect that maybe this could be a source of 40K vote gain for Democrats.
There is a clear trend in the state where the early news that Republicans and non-Blacks were turning out in force is reverting, in other words this seems like a shift to unsustainable early voting rather than fully attributed to a higher overall turnout.
The last 10 polls in Florida average to Clinton by 0.5%.
Using FiveThirtyEight adjusted they average to Trump by 0.9%
Using FiveThirtyEight full methodology has Trump by 0.2%
Thanks.
Thanks.
8K lead for Republicans on Monday
16K lead on Tuesday
17K lead on Wednesday
12K lead on Thursday
2K lead before polls open this morning.
https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats
But if you can wait a few hours, this guy is the recognized expert:
http://steveschale.com/blog/2016/11/4/it-is-friday-somewhere-and-that-somewhere-is-2016-election.html
Schale points out on his twitter that during the day the THursday data has been revised and Dems are now up 2K and not down 3K.
64% white, 6% black, and 20% hispanic.
The rest of the electorate is
68% white, 12% black, and 14%
The NPAs are also younger than the party-affiliated.
So I think that if Democrats can take a registration lead into election day (they are at +2K now), they should be favored.
The senate race has Cortez masto slightly leading Heck in the polls. Hard to see how Clinton rides a Hispanic wave without this Latina doing even better. Was available for 1k at -149 on BM.
The senate race has Cortez masto slightly leading Heck in the polls. Hard to see how Clinton rides a Hispanic wave without this Latina doing even better. Was available for 1k at -149 on BM.