Betting Talk

NFL 2016-2017 thread

sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
edited December 2016 in Sports Betting
I have no play on tonight's game (sorry) but I just had to present the following from Marc Lawrence:

NFL defending Super Bowl champions are 19-3 SU in home openers since 1994; and Denver is 28-4 SU and 20-10-2 ATS in home openers since 1984 (including 2-0 SUATS as a dog); and 18-9 SU and 19-7-1 ATS as a non-division home dog since 1983.
Defending Super Bowl losers who open the season on the road in Game One are 2-12 SU and 1-13 ATS since 1990, including 0-6 SUATS versus a foe that won 11 or more games the previous year.


And yet the SB loser Panthers are road faves here, at Denver no less, tough away venue... Huh?

It does make you question trends, at what point does Vegas correct for? And do all these trends apply despite Denver's QB situation (which we can presume is accounted for in the line?)?

It's my general tendency regarding fairly well-known trends to go against them.... By the time they become "established" and part of the tout universe, they're likely ready to reverse....

Comments

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    2-unit Chargers +6.5
    1-unit Browns +3.5
    1-unit Bears +5
    1-unit Dolphins +10.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    Record: 2-2, +0.8 units

    2-unit Rams +7
    2-unit Texans -2.5
    1-unit Rams OVER 38
    1-unit Lions -6
    1-unit Jaguars +3
    1-unit Cowboys +3
    1-unit Vikings +2.5
    1-unit Bears -3
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited September 2016
    sosoangry wrote: »
    Record: 2-2, +0.8 units

    Your main record needs to be unweighted (all plays 1u) but you're free to keep a secondary weighted record as well.

    Thanks.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    Record: 2-2, -0.2 units unweighted, +0.8 units weighted
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    Patriots +1.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    2-unit Ravens -1
    rest 1-unit:
    Bills +3.5
    Redskins +3
    Vikings +7
    49ers +10
    Eagles +3.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    1-unit Bengals -7.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    All 1-unit:

    Patriots -7.5
    Browns +7.5
    Bucs +3
    49ers +2
    Chiefs +5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    2-unit Packers -7
    all 1-unit:
    Bills Pk
    Chargers +3.5
    Lions +4 -115
    Patriots OVER 46.5
    Colts -4.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    NFL record: 17-12-1, +7.8 units weighted, +3.8 units unweighted (2-unit plays: 4-0-1)

    2-unit Bengals +9 -115
    2-unit Dolphins +7
    Bills -8
    Jets +7
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    Bears +7.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    2-unit Jets -2
    rest 1-unit:
    Vikings -3
    Bucs +1
    Steelers +7
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited October 2016
    2-unit Browns +3 -120
    rest 1-unit:
    Bills +6
    Colts +3 -120
    Bears +4
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Jaguars +7.5 -115
    Browns +7
    Raiders -1
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Record: 24-20-2, +6.8 units weighted, +1.9 units unweighted (2-unit plays: 6-1-2 ATS)
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    2-unit Rams +1
    rest 1-unit:
    Jaguars -2
    Packers -3
    Bears -2.5
    Vikings +2.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    2-unit Bills +2.5
    rest 1-unit:
    Colts -2.5
    Chiefs -7.5
    49ers +11.5
    Vikings -2.5
    Browns +8
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Vikings +2
    Redskins +7 -120
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2016
    Cards +6
    Bengals +4
    Browns +7
    Bucs +6
    Jets +7.5
    Packers +4
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    love this card, normally don't have this many plays, just the way it graded out:

    2.5 unit Redskins +2.5
    2 unit Ravens -3.5
    2 unit Chargers -3.5
    rest 1 unit:
    Jags +3.5
    Falcons -5.5
    49ers -2
    Steelers -6.5
    Panthers +7.5
    Jets +1.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    2-unit Patriots -7
    rest 1-unit:
    Titans -1
    Steelers -3
    Jaguars +3
    Colts -6.5
    Bengals -5

    back soon with an updated record....
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Record: 39-39-2, -3.8 units unweighted, +2.15 units weighted (2-unit: 10-2-2 ATS, 2.5 unit: 0-1 ATS)
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    Jets +2.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    2-unit Saints +3 -115
    2-unit Bears +5.5
    1-unit Vikings -4.5
    1-unit Redskins -6.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    2-unit 49ers +5
    rest 1-unit:
    Bears +3
    Saints -3.5
    Vikings +7
    Browns +4
    Broncos +3.5 -115
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2016
    2-unit Chargers +4
    rest 1-unit:
    Eagles -5.5
    Titans -4
    Vikings -6.5
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