Betting Talk

- NFL 2016/2017 -

Obi OneObi One Senior Member
edited January 2017 in Sports Betting
These are the Regular Season Wins props I have played. Went 5-1 last year on RSW plays and had Carolina win the NFC at 18-1.

RSW
ATL O7.5 +121
DAL O9 -110
JAX O7.5 -120
LOS U7 -125
OAK O8.5 -120
SF U5.5 -120

To win AFC:
OAK +1725
JAX +2300

To win NFC:
DAL +1075
ATL +3100

Week 1, thursday september 8th,
CAR/DEN U43
«13

Comments

  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Any insight on why so big on raiders ?

    thanks
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    jets96 wrote: »
    Any insight on why so big on raiders ?

    - Reggie McKenzie has shown to be a solid GM and great talent evaluator. Quality starters up and down his draft picks. This is a bit of a gamble of course, as there is no guarantee that this years draft class will pan out, but this year the focus was on defensive players and I expect them to be better on that front. Especially if you also consider the additions of Bruce Irvin and Sean Smith in free agency.
    - While not spectacular, the Raiders offense was solid and I expect them to be better with a healthier offensive line, plus the addition of Osemele.
    - John Fox's staff is in their second year.
    - Facing average Strength-of-Schedule this year. (based on their opponents Pythagorean Win Expectations)
    - Didn't have any outliers last year in the turnover department, pythagorean win expectancy, 1-score games, red zone scoring or points allowed from turnovers. Nothing that would indicate that their record could be worse due to regression to the mean in those categories.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Thats fair, thank you, I just dont like the raiders , they beat shit teams and even at that , they barley beat them...i think having a lot of new players and especially new draft picks makes it even worse, takes a long time before these guys gel ...your asking them to win the AFC ...boy they have a lot of teams to jump over ...

    Good luck this coming football season.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    jets96 wrote: »
    Thats fair, thank you, I just dont like the raiders , they beat shit teams and even at that , they barley beat them...i think having a lot of new players and especially new draft picks makes it even worse, takes a long time before these guys gel ...your asking them to win the AFC ...boy they have a lot of teams to jump over ...

    Good luck this coming football season.

    I think this is where we approach things differently. I'm not saying that the Raiders will go out there and dominate all 16 games. I just give them a high probability to outperform their RSW total and once they get to the playoffs anything is possible. When the playoffs start, would you rather be sitting on a 17-1 team or a 3-1 team? My favourite to win the AFC right now is New England. But their price is too short IMO. The others who I think have a chance are the Steelers and Cincinnati. Those prices are also too short. After that anything can happen. One thing that's for sure in the NFL is a high turnover of the playoff teams. Therefore I like the prices on the teams I've picked.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    I hear you , but we are talking about the raiders...i totally understand where your coming from ...especially the turnover on playoff teams...
    Personally id have no problem betting a 3-1 if goes along with my numbers ....its always nice to hit those 17-1 thought it doesnt happen often.
    we are gamblers , am on your side , hope you hit it...
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    GL with your futures Obi. I played Atlanta under 7.5 and Washington under 7.5, two others I like, are Dallas over 9 and Denver under 9.5
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    kane wrote: »
    GL with your futures Obi. I played Atlanta under 7.5 and Washington under 7.5, two others I like, are Dallas over 9 and Denver under 9.5

    Thanks Kane,
    Let's see whether I can finally turn a complete winning season this year. Wanna finish preseason in the plus, regular season, playoffs and futures too. Haha. Good luck on your plays!
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    NFLX:

    Week 1:
    MIA/NYG U36.5
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Obi

    I like your Jax plays on the Over RSW barring injury like every other team there defense could be at the top of the AFC. Excellent shot to win there division also and from there anything goes love the price. I agree I don't care what the numbers say I won't take less then DD's on a any future conference champ or Super Bowl winner. I have this guy the past two years that I play my futures with as long as the price is right on credit. No tying up cash it's a good thing.
    Funny how the Steelers will somehow also be around at the end. I heard a talking head say this about Big Ben. Most QB's in the league get hit and the play is over when they hit Big Ben that's when the play starts.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Agree with everything you said OT.
    I might have a couple more RSW plays later in the preseason. San Diego could do some damage if they stay healthy, Same for the Giants. Miami has a good Offensive Line coming together. Let's see how things develop on the field and at the bookies.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Preseason WK 1:

    Thu 11th,
    258 BAL PK -105
    261 DEN PK -105
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Obi One wrote: »
    Agree with everything you said OT.
    I might have a couple more RSW plays later in the preseason. San Diego could do some damage if they stay healthy, Same for the Giants. Miami has a good Offensive Line coming together. Let's see how things develop on the field and at the bookies.

    From the interview I heard Miami is going to let Tannehill be a real QB and give him the autonomy to check down. The Defense will have to step up for this team and during the preseason I like to watch there corners and safeties that seems to be a problem area. The front seven should be okay. This team could play 500 ball and I think Tannehill will do fine with the new QB coach that's suppose to be a "Guru QB Coach"
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Fri 12th,

    266 PIT -3
    268 CIN/MIN U35
    272 OAK/ARI U38
  • PredatorPredator Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    From the interview I heard Miami is going to let Tannehill be a real QB and give him the autonomy to check down. The Defense will have to step up for this team and during the preseason I like to watch there corners and safeties that seems to be a problem area. The front seven should be okay. This team could play 500 ball and I think Tannehill will do fine with the new QB coach that's suppose to be a "Guru QB Coach"

    went to two practices this week down here in south florida... tannehill did not look impresive..coaches looking for him,wake,suh and williams to step up as veterans on this team and be more voiceful... offense had some pretty bad series but the defense looks serious.. they will definitely have a hard time offensively scoring until tanne gets truly more comfortable at the new autonomy... feel as though he will, but its gonna take a few games..however their defense will keep them in every game....just my observation
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Preseason WK1 3 - 3 for -0.3 units

    ATL +2
    NE -3 -125
    OAK/GB O43
    DAL /MIA O41
    CIN/DET O41
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    TB/JAX O40.5
    BAL/IND O41
    NO/ HOU O41
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Thursday,

    ATL/MIA O43.5
    DAL +5.5
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    CLE -4
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    NFLX results:
    7-10 for -4.00 units.

    Pending:
    CAR/DEN U43

    Adding:
    TB/ATL O47.5
    BUF +3
    CLE +4
    CHI/HOU U44
    GB/JAX U48
    DET +3.5
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    Adding:
    NE/ARI U47.5
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    MIA +10.5 -115
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    adding TEN +3

    Teasers:
    TEN +8.5 with DET +9
    CLE +9.5 with MIA +16
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    NFL Week 2:

    Thursday,
    NYJ +2.5

    Sunday,
    NE -5.5
    DEN -6
    BAL -6
    JAX +3
    NYG/NO O51.5
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    GB/MIN U45
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    KC +3 -115
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    Regular season results:

    WK1
    6-4 for +1.6 units
    sides: 2-3 (clv +0.25)
    totals: 4-1 (clv +1.5)
    teasers 0-2 for -2.2 units.

    ytd-u: 13-14 for -2.40 units.
    ytd-w: 13-16 for -4.60 units.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    Week 2 add:

    TB +7

    So far market agreeing with most of my plays. Line value of 2 to 2.5 points on each total I played. Let's see whether it holds tomorrow during rush hour. Only don't understand the move to -5.5 on Baltimore. Just rewatch that BUF-BAL from last week, Baltimore defense a speedy swarm. They're much better than people anticipated. Cleveland might have gained a ton of yards and points with McGloin at QB in 2015 when playing Baltimore, but that was an injury-marred Ravens team. If the line moves further down (-4), I'll expand my position on the Ravens.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    Obi One wrote: »
    Week 2 add:

    TB +7

    Edit: this should be graded at TB +7 -115
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    DAL +3 +110
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited September 2016
    Obi One wrote: »
    Only don't understand the move to -5.5 on Baltimore. Just rewatch that BUF-BAL from last week, Baltimore defense a speedy swarm. They're much better than people anticipated. Cleveland might have gained a ton of yards and points with McGloin at QB in 2015 when playing Baltimore, but that was an injury-marred Ravens team. If the line moves further down (-4), I'll expand my position on the Ravens.

    There it is:

    BAL -4 (adding to BAL -6 position)
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