Betting Talk

MLB Extra Innings Prop Q?

ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
edited June 2016 in Sports Betting
Hey guys

Local just put up a daily MLB Extra Inning Prop Wager, this is essentially the wager:

Will there be an extra inning game played today?
Yes (-130)
No (+110)

I don't dabble in MLB outside of TT here and there but shouldn't I hammer this every time there's a full slate of games (14/15)? Seems that 9-10% of games go to Extra Innings, anybody see a reason I shouldn't bet this every day there is 13+ games? Appreciate any help on this subject I know very little about?

E

Comments

  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    I'd say yes. Over the last 20 years about 8.5% games go extras (percentage is a little lower this year).

    On a 15 game slate that would equate to 74% chance of at least one going extras
    On a 14 game slate that would equate to 71% chance of at least one going extras
    On a 13 game slate that would equate to 68% chance of at least one going extras

    Milk it while you can, it won't last long.
  • ericvandenericvanden Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    Thanks.....can you show how you arrived at those percentages, they look initially high buy I also don't know much about it as well. Appreciate the help greatly!
  • spiderman77spiderman77 Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    1 minus the chances that all games don't go extras

    So for a 15 game slate

    1 - .915 raised to the 15th = 1 - .26 = .74
Sign In or Register to comment.