Formula 1 Racing
Obi One
Senior Member
Couple of bets where I see value:
Drivers Championship:
Daniel Ricciardo +4000 (0.1 unit)
Max Verstappen +5000 (0.1 unit)
Constructor Championship
Red Bull Racing +1600 (0.5 unit)
The 2 drivers currently sit 5th and 6th in the Drivers Championship and 3rd in the Constructors standings. This week they received the new motor for the RB12 car. The TAG-Heuer named engine by Renault is expected to vault them into Mercedes' territory, which means they'll be competing for pole-positions the rest of the season. Another forte for Red Bull is that the next 3 races will be street circuits which is an advantage as their cars have better downforce (due to superior design) compared to their rivals. All of this was confirmed with Ricciardo winning the pole position of Monaco just 2 hours ago. There are 16 races left till the end of the season (November 27th), so a lot can happen. Mercedes have not solved their reliability issues yet, so they might be ahead right now, but in my opinion the value lies with the 2 young riders from Red Bull.
The Monaco race is tomorrow morning at 8am (ET)
I might have some match-up bets once they get posted.
Drivers Championship:
Daniel Ricciardo +4000 (0.1 unit)
Max Verstappen +5000 (0.1 unit)
Constructor Championship
Red Bull Racing +1600 (0.5 unit)
The 2 drivers currently sit 5th and 6th in the Drivers Championship and 3rd in the Constructors standings. This week they received the new motor for the RB12 car. The TAG-Heuer named engine by Renault is expected to vault them into Mercedes' territory, which means they'll be competing for pole-positions the rest of the season. Another forte for Red Bull is that the next 3 races will be street circuits which is an advantage as their cars have better downforce (due to superior design) compared to their rivals. All of this was confirmed with Ricciardo winning the pole position of Monaco just 2 hours ago. There are 16 races left till the end of the season (November 27th), so a lot can happen. Mercedes have not solved their reliability issues yet, so they might be ahead right now, but in my opinion the value lies with the 2 young riders from Red Bull.
The Monaco race is tomorrow morning at 8am (ET)
I might have some match-up bets once they get posted.
Comments
Daniel Ricciardo of Red Bull Racing started from pole, sped away from the field in rainy conditions but lost the race because of a tactical mistake in the pits. As the track was drying, they had to make a decision on the tire-compound. Go to intermediates which go slower once a track really dries up, but offer more grip when the track is still halfwet. The other option was to go to slicks, which feels like ice-skating when on a wet track but are significantly faster on a dry track. As he was coming into the pits they decided last-minute to switch to slicks, but those were all the way back in the garage as it had been raining all day. Result was a 12 second pitstop, instead of the regular 2.5 seconds. Once he exited the pits he was just 1 second behind Lewis Hamilton. Due to the narrow Monaco track he never managed to overtake him anymore. That's why he finished second. Sucks, but the car was great.
Max Verstappen crashed in qualifying and also changed to a new chassis due to the damage from the crash. Under the F1 rules you have to start from the pits in that case. He quickly made his way up the field from 23rd to 10th position, displaying his superior driving skills and great car. Unfortunately once he was on slicks the overtaking manoeuvres became more dangerous as you have to leave the dry line and drive on the wet part of the track. A smal slip and he crashed into the walls. Race over. But he clearly showed his superiority to the other drivers and even had Nico Rosberg in his sight. Next race he'll have the new and improved TagHeuer motor from Renault too. I can see Ricciardo and him going 1 & 2 in a couple of races.
Concluding, still valuable bets.
Next race is the Grand Prix of Canada in Montreal on Circuit Gilles Villeneuve.
http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/championship/races/2016/Canada.html
Mercedes have not solved their reliability issues yet, so they might be ahead right now, but in my opinion the value lies with the 2 young riders from Red Bull.
Mercedes is fast, but I see one or the other DNFing several races. If Verstappen can keep from too many dumb mistakes (which Monaco seems to bring out in him) I think Red Bull has good shot at Constructors.
Luck.
Here's the video.
http://www.formula1.com/content/fom-website/en/video/2016/5/_Where%27s_the_tyres___-_Relive_Red_Bull%27s_pit_stop_nightmare.html
Rainy conditions, a good day to bet the underdogs, will post plays close to race-time as the weather for the race will be better known.
Max Verstappen to win +2000 (0.1unit)
Field to win +1200 (0.2 unit)
- BetCris doesn't have Ricciardo listed, so I'm taking the 'field' option as I think he has a serious chance to win.
Max Vertsappen top 3 finish +250
H2H matchups:
Ricciardo +145 over Vettel
Verstappen -170 vs Raikonnen
Jolson Palmer +110 vs Magnussen
Daniil Kvyat +110 vs Sainz
Total drivers to finish:
Under 17.5 +103 (2 units) (5D)
Sunday morning 9am will see the European Grand Prix from Baku, Azerbaijan. In short, Lewis Hamilton had a bad qualifying session (hit the wall) and will start from 10th place. Max Verstappen was hampered by stupid driving of Bottas in the qualifying session and only starts from the 9th spot. He was well on pace for the 3rd spot but got held up by Bottas. Baku is a new circuit with the longest straight-away of the whole Formula One Tour. One part of the circuit is the 2.2 km straight-away and another part goes through the old part of Baku and feels a bit similar to the Monaco race, with narrow streets. The cars with the most top speed will definitely benefit from the long straight-away. Those are Ferrari (Raikonnen and Vettel) and Mercedes (Rosberg and Hamilton). The same 2 teams that had very good races last week in Canada, also a track with a couple of long straight-aways. I don't know what to make of Sergio Perez yet, but he's been knocking. He qualified 2nd but got a grid-penalty for changing his gearbox and will start from 7th.
To finish top 3:
Sebastian Vettel +110 (2 units)
Sergio Perez +500 (0.4 unit)
To finish top 6:
Max Verstappen +165 (2 units)
Match-ups:
Verstappen -135 (vs Hulkenberg)
Wanted to bet on how many cars finished, but didn't get up in time. I think there will be a lot of hitting walls and each other on this track.
Was thinking same thing, but nothing, almost zero mistakes.
Really sucks that Red Bull went for 2 stop-strategy while most in front of them were on 1-stops. Guess they were expecting a couple of yellows, maybe reds too.
Verstappen -125 matchup vs Ricciardo. 2 units.
I'm very sorry for this,
My post was at 7:58, while the race went off at 8:00. I typed it last night but apparently forgot to click to post it. So I posted it this morning when I noticed my mistake. Wanted to have what I played posted for record keeping. Understandably difficult to tail on such short notice. Again, my apologies.
It's a very technical race on a narrow circuit which doesn't feature long straights. Here the topspeed of the car isn't as important as the aerodynamics for downforce in the corners are. Red Bull Racing have a great car for this circuit and the gap with Mercedes is minimal. Odds are up at 5D, matchups will be available tomorrow morning on CRIS. The race goes off at 8am ET.
Ricciardo to win +600 (0.5 unit)
Verstappen to win +850 (0.5 unit)
Verstappen to finish top 3 -135 (2 units)
Carlos Sainz to finish top 6 +150
Sergio Perez to finish top 6 +200
Very disappointing indeed,
Early in the race he noted over the radio to his team that he was being held up by Ricciardo and that he was 'driving like an old granny'. It's a difficult track to overtake other drivers and at that moment early in the race he had better speed than Ricciardo. After his first pitstop he got stuck behind Raikonnen who was on old tires, that's when Ricciardo, in 3rd, ran about 10 seconds away from the trailing Raikonnen and Verstappen in 5/6th respectively. He wore down his own tires while trying to overtake Raikonnen and after that had no chance of challenging for the podium.
Given the fact that the RB12 ran very well on Silverstone 2 weeks ago, almost keeping pace with the Mercedes I thought there was a lot of value on Verstappen who had finished 2nd in the previous 2 races. He even put up the 2nd fastest time behind Rosberg in FT3 on saturday morning before Qualifications. Knowing that Rosberg is a weak starter, there was even a chance for the Red Bulls to pass him before the 1st corner. Almost happened.
All in all there are a couple of prices I like for this race.
Verstappen to win +490
Vettel to win +1139 (0.3 unit)
Raikonnen to win +927 (0.3 unit)
These are from CRIS, better prices available at 5D.
Most cars are getting updates, but none so radical as the new car Red Bull will be debuting. Rumors (credible) are that the new car is doing 1.3 to 1.5 seconds faster per lap in the simulator. This should translate to about 1 sec on the track. This would close the gap to Ferarri and Mercedes and have Max Verstappen and Daniel Ricciardo contending for the wins again.
Max is currently +1800 to win Spain,
+7700 to win the Championship
and Red Bull is +8000 to win the Constructors Championship
PS: Here's a clip from last year's Brazilian Grand Prix, in the rain,
Utter and utter brilliance from Max Verstappen
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEO_iWCHaPE
He was 1 of the 4 guys with the best cars (2 Ferarri's and 2 Mercedes), not really 'unexpected' unless you already assumed before the race that he wasn't going to win. Unexpected/ Shocker is if Haas Racing, Force India or Manor win a race.
The gist of my previous post (and bets) is that if Red Bull really are able to close the gap on the track with Ferarri and Mercedes, then +7700 is a whole lot of value. Just like the +1800 on Verstappen to win the Spain Grand Prix.
Regarding the 'rumors' about the new RB14-car being 1.3 to 1.5 seconds faster in the simulator: The same guy that posted the rumor, was also the guy that knew last year that Verstappen was going to get promoted from the Torro Rosso team to Red Bull Racing, before the media knew about it. Looks like he certainly has good connections over at Milton Keynes, where the Red Bull Racing headquarters are.
Should I waste my time following F1 or do you think this practice session is evidence that the new car isnt enough. I value your insight and tips here and for other sports.
Hey paddy,
practice sessions aren't really a true barometer. Off course it's indicative, however we still don't know what kind of set-up the teams were trotting out there. Was it their qualifying set-up? Which is a light car with the fastest tires. Or was it their race set-up? Which is a fully loaded car with slower but more durable tires? The true test will be in qualifying tomorrow, where everybody will be trying to max-out the car in it's lightest and speediest set-up.
Word from Max is that the updates have definitely helped and the car has a bit more speed. They also solved a lot of the front-wing downforce problems, and the car handles much better according to him. Hopefully they'll get more horse-power in 3 weeks in Baku, Azerbaijan, when Renault will get them a new motor. The gap with Mercedes/ Ferarri is about 50-60 horse-power right now (gulp).
A couple of years back, when Vettel was driving for Red Bull, they went into the summer break with a 42 point deficit and managed to emerge victorious at the end of the season.
When it comes to the betting, remember that you're betting long-shots. This implies a small chance of the events actually happening. However, in my estimate, I believe the chances of Max winning or becoming a champion are higher than what the odds are implying. If just by chance 3 or 4 races happen to get a bit of rain, the whole driver-standings could be turned upside down for the first 6 drivers.
I bet Max to win Spain Grand Prix at 0.01 unit to win 1.6 unit
to win F1 Championship at 0.05 to win 4 units (same for Ricciardo)
and Red bull to win Constructors.
You don't need to follow it to bet it. Nor do you need to bet it to follow it. I'm a F1 fan and watch most races and follow the top teams.
Excellent intel, thanks again. Looking forward to having a rooting interest here if RB13 starts to compete.
Much better handle, significantly closed the gap, much closer to the top4 tomorrow. With a good start and no mistakes in the pit, he'll probably get onto the podium.
https://www.formula1.com/en/latest/interviews/2017/5/f1-spain-max-verstappen-best-qualifying-of-2017.html