2016 MLB Bets
Jake T.
Senior Member
Figured I'd start a yearly thread and start posting my stuff. Wanted to wait a bit to see pitchers once or twice through the rotation before getting started on sharing. It's about that time. Will start posting plays tonight or tomorrow morning depending on when I finish up my database. Good luck to all!
Comments
Anyway, going to start with Wednesday's card. Generally I'd have everything handicapped and ready to go when odds first come out (around 3 PM ET) and bet the openers but for my personal opening day of posting I'll just use whatever the numbers are at currently. From here on out expect picks to come out right around when openers are released (other than Wrigley Field games because I'm not messing with those until I figure out the wind the day of).
I'll post my personal lines that I came up with and then the bets I go with below. Will use CRIS lines for the sake of record keeping. Good luck to all!
My personal MLB lines for 4/20:
Reds -125, o8 -120
Cardinals -135, u7.5 -115
White Sox -130, u7 -125
Indians -140, u7.5 -112
Orioles -145, 9 pk
Yankees -160, o8.5 -115
Mets -125, 8 pk
Dodgers -130, u8 -115
Going to stop here. I'm so burnt out from messing with the database that I'm only going to cap half the card. Will be at 100% tomorrow.
Probably should take Orioles -123 but I missed the -110 opener and I'll pass.
4/20 bets:
Los Angeles Angels +145
Sale's a stud but the White Sox aren't hitting. Richards can shut them down. Angels much stronger offensively. Still don't trust the White Sox' bullpen. Think this is a tossup game. Home field isn't worth 50 cents.
Indians -145, o8.5 -125
Dodgers -215, u7 -120
Nationals -210, u7.5 -120
Red Sox -155, u7.5 -112
Brewers pk, o8.5 -115
Angels -120, 8.5 pk
Giants -180, 8 pk
Blue Jays pk, o9 -120
Yankees -140, u8.5 -115
Cubs -165, u8 -115
Royals -140, u8 -115
Astros -115, o9.5 -120
Pirates -110, u7 -125
Bets:
Indians -120
Mariners/Indians o8.5 +100
Angels +100
Blue Jays/Orioles o9 +100
Reds +180
Cubs/Reds o7 +100
Tigers +145
Tigers/Royals u9 -120
Rangers +135
Astros/Rangers o9 +100
Padres +125
Record: 0-1 -$100
My personal MLB lines for 4/22:
Mets -110, o8 -115
Cubs -175, o7.5 -120
Brewers -110, o8 -115
Dodgers pk, o11 -120
DBacks -140, u8 -120
Giants -200, 7.5 pk
Padres -135, 7.5 pk
Blue Jays -120, u7.5 -115
Tigers -130, o8.5 -115
Rangers pk, u7.5 -120
Orioles pk, u8 -112
Mariners -140, u7 -115
Braves +155
Harvey hasn't looked right. Has a mechanical issue. I'll take a shot on the dog.
Rockies +110
Kazmir hasn't looked right and both starters are likely to get hit hard. +110 on a coin flip works for me.
Pirates/DBacks u8.5 +100
Not a big fan of playing unders in Arizona but we have 2 solid lefties on the mound that don't get rocked often. Feel this one has some value.
Giants -150
Marlins aren't hitting and aren't likely to start in a pitcher's park against Samardzija. I don't particularly trust Cosart to pitch well right now.
Padres +110
Not sure why St. Louis is favored by so much on the road. Cashner is a solid pitcher and Wainwright has looked like a mess thus far.
A's/Blue Jays u8 +100
Sanchez and Gray are both pitching very well. Toronto is another spot where I don't particularly want to play unders but both starters should put in nice outings.
Indians/Tigers o8.5 +100
This one would normally not be a play but I like it despite the value in the actual odds vs. my odds. Verlander can't be trusted. Detroit usually hits at home and Tomlin hasn't been overly impressing me. I don't trust either bullpen either.
Rangers +125
Rangers/White Sox u8.5 -115
Perez should dominate the White Sox who aren't hitting right now. Coin flip game. Rangers aren't hitting either. Some team is winning 3-2.
Orioles/Royals u9 -120
Young not throwing well concerns me but I still like the under. KC games at home usually are low-scoring. They have excellent defensive players that help out. KC also isn't hitting much just yet. Line seems to have some value.
Not a big deal, but please list units in terms of units, not $. In other words, you should be -1.0u. Thanks.
Noted. Will do that going forward. Thanks for the heads up.
6-6 +.15u on the year.
Made some dumb bets today but I'm always a bit underdog hungry.
Cubs -200, o8 -112
Mets -120, u8 -120
Brewers -140. 8 pk
Dodgers -130, 10.5 pk
Pirates -150, o9.5 -115
Giants pk, u8 -115
Blue Jays -155, o8.5 -112
Indians -115, 8 pk
Rangers pk, u8 -120
Red Sox -110, o8.5 -115
Angels -150, u7 -115
Nationals -140, o9 -120
Still waiting on pitchers for these games, might cap them later we shall see:
Cardinals @ Padres
Orioles @ Royals
Rays @ Yankees
Probably should play the Braves but my line feels a little light and I think I'll pass. Chacin can do well here but he only goes 5 innings most of the time and I don't particularly trust Atlanta's pen.
Cubs -1.5 -105
Reds aren't hitting. Cubs mash HRs and are in a HR park against a guy in Straily that I don't trust. Line moving the other way a tick scares me but seems like there is value on Chicago. Worst case scenario the Cubs score runs against that lousy Cincy bullpen.
Pirates -102
Rubby De La Rosa is struggling and Pittsburgh is mashing just about everyone. Nicasio is much more trustworthy as a starter in this matchup.
Giants +125
Marlins' offense doesn't impress me just yet and Peavy seems like a good candidate to rebound at home after some rough starts. Fernandez is a stud and the Giants' offense isn't doing that well but he's only going 5 innings and the Marlins' bullpen has struggled.
Rangers +125
Rangers/White Sox u8.5 +100
Nice value on both bets. White Sox offense continues to struggle and Colby Lewis dominated them last year. Rodon is a solid lefty and Texas is only hitting a little better than Chicago. If the bullpens don't screw me I think both wagers come in. Starters should only allow a run or 2 each over 6 innings anyway.
Angels -130
Mariners/Angels u7.5 +100
There are still a ton of -120 lines out there but I said I'd stick with CRIS lines for posting but you might want to shop around. Opener already got hit (really the only line I've lost value on by waiting an extra hour). Santiago is pitching great. Iwakuma is a good pitcher. I trust the Angels' offense more than Seattle's. At home this seems like good value. I think both starters do well but think Santiago has the better outing and the Angels win 4-2 or so.
Twins/Nationals o8.5 +100
Not sure how you can trust these starters. Hughes isn't sharp and he's facing an offense that can put up runs in a hurry. Roark has faced easier offenses and has given up runs. Twins hitting well. Twins' bullpen should give up runs. Value on the over.
This thread says plays for 4/22, but the pitchers you're talking about don't seem to be the ones scheduled. Am I missing something here?
Nope you didn't miss anything. Just noticed the mistake and got it edited. The ones you quoted are for tomorrow. Sorry for the mixup. These were my plays for today:
Braves +155
Harvey hasn't looked right. Has a mechanical issue. I'll take a shot on the dog.
Rockies +110
Kazmir hasn't looked right and both starters are likely to get hit hard. +110 on a coin flip works for me.
Pirates/DBacks u8.5 +100
Not a big fan of playing unders in Arizona but we have 2 solid lefties on the mound that don't get rocked often. Feel this one has some value.
Giants -150
Marlins aren't hitting and aren't likely to start in a pitcher's park against Samardzija. I don't particularly trust Cosart to pitch well right now.
Padres +110
Not sure why St. Louis is favored by so much on the road. Cashner is a solid pitcher and Wainwright has looked like a mess thus far.
A's/Blue Jays u8 +100
Sanchez and Gray are both pitching very well. Toronto is another spot where I don't particularly want to play unders but both starters should put in nice outings.
Indians/Tigers o8.5 +100
This one would normally not be a play but I like it despite the value in the actual odds vs. my odds. Verlander can't be trusted. Detroit usually hits at home and Tomlin hasn't been overly impressing me. I don't trust either bullpen either.
Rangers +125
Rangers/White Sox u8.5 -115
Perez should dominate the White Sox who aren't hitting right now. Coin flip game. Rangers aren't hitting either. Some team is winning 3-2.
Orioles/Royals u9 -120
Young not throwing well concerns me but I still like the under. KC games at home usually are low-scoring. They have excellent defensive players that help out. KC also isn't hitting much just yet. Line seems to have some value.
11-11 +.35u on the year.
Not exactly setting the world on fire yet but profit is profit I suppose.
Yankees -150, u8.5 -112
Blue Jays -140, o9 -112
Tigers pk, o9 -112
Cubs -200, 8.5 pk
Nationals -200, u8 -115 (this was with Santana starting, Twins just switched to Duffey so it's no good anymore)
White Sox -150, u8 -120
Phillies -110, 9 pk
Royals -165, u8.5 -115
Angels -150, o9 -115
Giants -150, o8.5 -120
Dodgers -110, o12 -115
DBacks -145, 9 pk
Cardinals -120, u7.5 -120
Astros pk, 8.5 pk
Mets @ Braves (not capping, pitcher's weren't available when I looked earlier and I don't want to go back later)
My bets for 4/24:
Will take a look at Cubs RL when it comes up. Lean Royals/Orioles under but passing for now.
Yankees -112
Smily has pitched well against the Yankees in the past but I don't particularly trust him. Pineda facing a Rays offense without much pop at home seems like a good bet at these odds.
Tigers +126
Greene is tough to predict. When he's on he's really good. Ultimately Detroit at home, coming off a loss, as an underdog, against a guy they can score a few runs against in Carrasco seems like a good bet.
Rangers/White Sox u8.5 -108
I don't trust the White Sox to hit right now and Holland is solid. Latos is in top form for the White Sox and the Rangers don't hit as well away from home. Seems to be value here if the Rangers' bullpen doesn't blow it.
Mariners/Angels o8.5 -103
Miley and Shoemaker are both hittable. Neither offense has been great lately but I expect both starters to get knocked out fairly early.
Giants -126
Marlins/Giants o8 -108
Giants seem underpriced right now. I think they can get Conley and the Marlins' pen is a bit of a mess right now. Cain hasn't looked sharp at all but he's in a pitcher's park against a team that isn't doing a ton of hitting. Thinking Giants win 6-4 or so.
Dodgers/Rockies o11.5 -113
I kind of hate taking an over that's set this high but I just don't see much of a chance for either starter to have success. Rockies' pen will give up runs. Meh, I'll roll the dice.
Diamondbacks -106
Tough to bet against Pittsburgh with the way their offense is hitting but Liriano has had control issues. Ray has been great this year and seems more likely to have success in this park than his adversary. Lots of value on Arizona IMO.
Red Sox +118
I like Owens a lot. He should be really good. He's going to be tough to hit for an Astros offense that is not looking sharp just yet. Feldman is a sturdy pitcher but Boston's offense has been nice thus far. I'll gladly take the dog.
13-15 -1.37u on the year.
Nah, that wasn't it. 2/3 of the Twins outs were K's.
Blue Jays -125, u7 -115
Rays pk, 7.5 pk
Tigers -150, u7.5 -120
Mets -190, u7 -120
Angels -130, u7.5 -115
Dodgers -160, 8 pk
Mariners -150, 7.5 pk
Giants -165, u7 -130
Waiting on pitchers before capping:
Red Sox @ Braves
Yankees @ Rangers
Indians @ Twins
Pirates @ Rockies
Cardinals @ DBacks
NOTE: Blue Jays/White Sox line is bunk as pitchers have changed so I'll have to cap that again with the other 5 I was waiting on.
A's/Tigers u8 -115
Not a ton of value here but enough for me to take a shot. Tigers aren't hitting a ton right now and Graveman has been sharp. Zimmerman has been a stud and the A's don't pack a ton of power. Thinking both starters do well and both bullpens seem trustworthy.
Lean Padres at +170 but not ready to pull the trigger there just yet. Have a feeling it will be tied 2-2 late and the Padres' bullpen blows it. We'll see. I might change my mind later.
Some more lines for 4/25, 3 games left I'm waiting on pitchers still:
Indians -125, 8 pk
Pirates -130, 11 pk (if De La Rosa pitches for Colorado, sounds like Rusin might go instead with Jorge ill)
DBacks -150, 7.5 pk
Waiting on pitchers before capping:
Red Sox @ Braves
Yankees @ Rangers
White Sox @ Blue Jays
Please make sure to read the record keeping guidelines link at the top of the page. The lines you use for tracking your bets must come from BM, Pinny, or 5Dimes. Thanks.
Sounds good. Will do.
18-19 -.63u on the year.
Blue Jays -170, u8.5 -120
Red Sox -135, o8.5 -115
Yankees -120, o9.5 -115
More 4/25 bets:
Red Sox/Braves o8 +105
Porcello should do well enough here but he usually gives up a few runs each start. Atlanta hitting surprisingly decent lately. Teheran is solid but Boston's offense is nice this season. Neither team has a dependable bullpen so we should see late runs to push this one over.
Yankees +100
Yankees/Rangers o9 +113
I don't particularly trust Eovaldi but the Yankees have a bullpen and the Rangers don't. A part time minor league reliever making a spot start for Texas doesn't figure to go that well, and even if Ramos impresses he doesn't go deep in games so that garbage Texas bullpen will have extra responsibility.
1-3 -2.15u
19-22 -2.78u on the year.
Running behind on today's stuff. Will do that shortly and then post lines for tomorrow's stuff too.