Betting Talk

2016 MLB Bets

24

Comments

  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    My personal lines for 4/26:

    Nationals -200, u7.5 -120
    White Sox -140, 7.5 pk
    Rays -140, u7 -120
    Red Sox -180, u7 -112
    Tigers -120, u8 -115
    Mets -160, 7.5 pk
    Cubs -140, u7.5 -115
    Twins -130, 8.5 pk
    Pirates -130, u10.5 -112
    Cardinals -130, o8.5 -115
    Angels -120, u7 -115
    Dodgers -200, 7 pk
    Astros -120, u7.5 -120
    Giants -200, u7 -115
    Yankees pk, 9.5 pk

    My bets for 4/26:


    White Sox -121

    Not a huge fan of going against the Blue Jays at home but Sale is a stud and the White Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball. White Sox offense is showing signs of life and Dickey is tough to trust. Seems like there is some value here.

    Tigers +117
    Athletics/Tigers u9 -114

    Seems like a good spot to take the home dog. Pelfrey isn't anything special but Hill is hit or miss. Not in love with either offense. Both bullpens are okay. Expecting a low-scoring coin flip game.

    Brewers +179

    Bullpen probably blows this game for me but Nelson is a really good pitcher and with the wind blowing in he should put in 7 excellent innings at Wrigley. Hendricks should do well enough but I love the value on this underdog.

    Angels +105

    Angels offense seems to be heating up a tick and Royals' offense isn't a high-scoring bunch. I think the wrong team is favored.

    Marlins +255

    Another big dog where the bullpen probably screws me late. Marlins not hitting that well but they are one of the best against lefties. Should be able to get a couple runs against Kershaw. Koehler is solid enough to give this big dog a realistic chance.
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    jake--if you truly believe that the Milw and Mia bullpens might screw you, why not just bet them for the 1st 5 innings. Currently Milw is +205 and Mia is +273 at 5Dimes for the 1st 5 bets obviously better lines than the full game.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    My bets for 4/26:


    White Sox -121

    Not a huge fan of going against the Blue Jays at home but Sale is a stud and the White Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball. White Sox offense is showing signs of life and Dickey is tough to trust. Seems like there is some value here.

    Robertson has gone in three straight so most likely unavailable tonight.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    My personal lines for 4/27:

    Giants -180, 7.5 pk
    Nats -240, 8 pk
    Blue Jays -115, u8 -120
    Rays -130, u7 -115
    Red Sox -200, 8.5 pk
    A's -120, u7.5 -120
    Mets -235, u7.5 -112
    Rangers -140, 9 pk
    Twins -140, u7 -115
    Pirates -130, 10.5 pk
    DBacks -140, o9 -112
    Angels -135, o8.5 -120
    Dodgers -150, o8.5 -120
    Mariners -160, u8 -115

    My bets for 4/27:

    Nationals -1.5 +105

    Doubt Philly can score much against Gio. Hellickson hasn't been sharp and the Nats should hit him. Even if they don't they'll get late runs against Philly's poor bullpen.

    Orioles/Rays u7.5 -115

    Neither offense is terribly impressive lately. Two capable starters. Two capable bullpens. Pitchers' park. Seems to be some value here.

    A's/Tigers u8 -104

    Gray can put in quality innings against everyone. Verlander I'm more worried about but Oakland's offense isn't scary and he's been pitching well. Bullpens have been good so far. I'll try under.

    Rangers -111

    I trust Martin Perez a ton more than I trust Sabathia these days. Rangers' bullpen obviously will be an issue but Sabathia hasn't looked sharp. Home team with a likely early lead at close to even money works for me.

    Diamondbacks -105
    Cardinals/DBacks o8.5 -104


    Been fading Wainwright and not about to stop. He's just not back at 100%. Until he shows he's back I'm probably going to keep fading him (or at least until the lines adjust more). Arizona is a tough place to pitch anyway and I think the DBacks can hit here.

    Angels -111
    Royals/Angels o7.5 -111


    Angels' offense is starting to heat up and hit for some power. Young is hit or miss. Thinking the Angels get a few HRs at home and Tropeano has been throwing well. Will predict the Angels to win 6-3 or so.

    Mariners -133

    McHugh hasn't been that sharp lately. Seems like a good price for the home team. Iwakuma has had issues with Houston in the past but right now Houston's offense is still in spring ball form. Striking out too much... too reliant on power. I think a savvy vet in Iwakuma can have some success here and I don't trust McHugh.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    4-2 +3.6 on the day.

    23-24 +.82u on the year.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    jake--if you truly believe that the Milw and Mia bullpens might screw you, why not just bet them for the 1st 5 innings. Currently Milw is +205 and Mia is +273 at 5Dimes for the 1st 5 bets obviously better lines than the full game.

    Missed the replies earlier. Sorry about that.

    As far as 1st 5 it made some sense but I'm usually concentrating on one wager type or the other. Decided this season I was going to play full game stuff. I just feel I can get more zoned in on 1 as opposed to differentiating bet types. Might sound weird (and definitely has the potential to be downright stupid) but I feel it works.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    kdog wrote: »
    My bets for 4/26:


    White Sox -121

    Not a huge fan of going against the Blue Jays at home but Sale is a stud and the White Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball. White Sox offense is showing signs of life and Dickey is tough to trust. Seems like there is some value here.

    Robertson has gone in three straight so most likely unavailable tonight.

    Missed this earlier but appreciate the note. Worked out okay in the end this time but good info.
  • crazyivan24crazyivan24 Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Hey Jake - long time fan, good luck this MLB season. I'll keep an eye out on your plays.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    My lines seem to be tightening up, at least for one day anyway.

    My personal lines for 4/28:

    Tigers -130, u8.5 -115
    Brewers @ Cubs (I don't cap Wrigley games the day prior)
    Rockies pk, o10.5 -125
    Nationals -160, u8 -112
    Orioles -140, o8.5 -118
    Red Sox -175, 9 pk
    Cardinals -130, o9.5 -120
    Dodgers -150, u7 -120

    My bets for 4/28:

    Maybe should take a shot on Atlanta but I have a feeling Buchholz is going to get back to top form here. Chacin is extremely underrated but I'm not going to trust the Braves' bullpen at Fenway. I don't mind scratching a play if I have a bad feeling.

    Cardinals/DBacks o9 -110

    Both offenses are looking very nice lately. I don't trust either starting pitcher. Wacha has been good enough but on the road in this park I don't expect him to be sharp. De La Rosa hasn't been impressive. Arizona's bullpen seems exploitable too.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Hey Jake - long time fan, good luck this MLB season. I'll keep an eye out on your plays.

    Thanks man! Good luck to you as well!
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    kdog wrote: »
    My bets for 4/26:


    White Sox -121

    Not a huge fan of going against the Blue Jays at home but Sale is a stud and the White Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball. White Sox offense is showing signs of life and Dickey is tough to trust. Seems like there is some value here.

    Robertson has gone in three straight so most likely unavailable tonight.

    You got mail
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Just an FYI. Going to start handicapping stuff the day of the games instead of the day prior. Want to start figuring in more weather stuff into the equation.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    27-30 -1.81u on the year.

    Today's plays will be out shortly.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    My personal lines for 4/29:

    Cubs -235, u7 -115
    Pirates -180, o9 -115
    Indians -170, 7.5 pk
    Orioles -125, 8.5 pk
    Red Sox -110, o8.5 -115
    Blue Jays pk, u7.5 -115
    Mets -135, o8.5 -120
    Angels -150, 8.5 pk
    Brewers -130, o8.5 -115
    Twins -145, o9 -125
    Nationals -120, 7 pk
    DBacks -140, 9 pk
    A's -125, 7 pk
    Mariners -155, u7 -115
    Dodgers -140, 7.5 pk

    My bets for 4/29:

    Pirates -1.5 +145
    Reds/Pirates o7.5 -120


    Straily is tough to trust normally but even tougher to trust against a hot Pirates offense. Reds have no bullpen so I'm confident Pittsburgh can score some runs. Nicasio hasn't held up to his hot spring but he's still facing a lesser offense and has potential in this park. Reds should get a couple runs but I think Pittsburgh wins 6-3 or so.

    Yankees/Red Sox o7.5 +105

    Tanaka hasn't had much success at Fenway and Red Sox are hitting well. Owens is a guy I like a good deal but after he got rocked in his 1st start I'm thinking he might still be a year away. Pitching against the Yankees is going to be a lot of pressure for him. Boston's bullpen is exploitable. Seems to be value.

    Angels -126

    I don't trust Lewis. Angels killed him last year and in this hitter's park I think they score some runs against him again. Santiago has had success pitching in Texas and almost always puts in good innings. On top of everything the Texas bullpen has been awful.

    Brewers -105

    I simply trust Davies more than I trust Conley. Neither bullpen can be trusted really. Miami's offense without Dee Gordon isn't as scary. I'll take the shot on the home team at close to even money.

    Twins -113

    Fulmer is the definition of a guy that is being rushed to the majors. Sometimes these guys have success off the bat because teams don't know what to expect but I can't see him having success at all in the majors for another year or 2. Hughes is solid. Will give up a few runs but Twins should still win 6-3 or so.

    A's +125
    A's/Astros u7.5 -110


    Easy pick for me on the side. Manaea is a guy I expect to throw excellent innings right off the bat. Coin flip game. Fiers should do well against the A's as he has in the past but Manaea is a stud who I really like. Astros hit lefties pretty well but they also rely on power shots which Manaea rarely gives up. I like the value here. 3-2 A's.

    Padres +154

    I really don't know what to expect from Vargas. He wasn't that good the last few years. Converted reliever. In the minors this season he's been awesome though and looked very solid in his debut. Dodgers aren't hitting and I'm thinking Vargas can throw 5 or 6 good innings. Padres' bullpen is scary to trust but I think San Diego has a lead after 6 and that's really all I can ask for with a +154 dog. Wood has been hittable this year and Padres do okay against lefties.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Adding one more.

    Tigers/Indians o9 -110

    It doesn't have much value according to the differentiation between my lines and the actual lines but I just really think Fulmer gets wrecked. I'll take a shot and go with my gut.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    I'm on a few of those. Wish I could find Red Sox O7.5 +105 though.:)
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    kdog wrote: »
    I'm on a few of those. Wish I could find Red Sox O7.5 +105 though.:)

    Got super lucky on that one. Hit it right at the bottom of the big under move, right before the over move started up. Just dumb luck as I wasn't waiting for the line to do anything in particular. Hopefully the juice won't matter and both teams score a million runs. Good luck!
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Jake T. wrote: »
    Adding one more.

    Tigers/Indians o9 -110

    It doesn't have much value according to the differentiation between my lines and the actual lines but I just really think Fulmer gets wrecked. I'll take a shot and go with my gut.
    Don't you mean Minn instead of Clev?
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    bluejake wrote: »
    Don't you mean Minn instead of Clev?

    Yeah sorry about that. Tigers/Twins. Good catch.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    4-6 -1.5u yesterday.

    31-36 -3.31u on the year.

    Can't seem to get in any rhythm just yet. Hoping for a big Saturday. Plays out in a couple hours.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    My personal lines for 4/30:

    Tigers -130, 7.5 pk
    Cardinals -140, 7.5 pk
    Cubs -200, u7.5 -120
    Mets -175, 7.5 pk
    A's -160, 8 pk
    Rays -130, u6.5 -115
    Phillies -110, o8.5 -115
    Orioles -150, u7.5 -120
    Pirates -190, 8 pk
    Marlins -115, 8.5 pk
    Red Sox -135, 8 pk
    Rangers -115, 8.5 pk
    DBacks -185, 9.5 pk
    Dodgers -150, u7.5 -115
    Mariners pk, 7.5 pk

    My bets for 4/30:

    Tigers/Twins u8.5 -115

    I don't have a great feeling about this one as these bullpens are shaky but I'll play it anyway. Zimmerman has been a stud and has been shutting everyone down. Duffey has a high WHIP but seems to always limit runs. Wind is blowing in which will make it tougher to hit home runs. As much as the bullpens scare mem this just doesn't seem like a game that should be lined at 8.5.

    Athletics -111

    Strange line. Hahn has been solid at the MLB level for 2 years now. He's not dominant but he's a solid starter who limits home runs which takes away a lot of what the Astros do offensively. Devenski making his MLB debut for Houston. Hasn't been anything special in the minors. Has been pitching in the bullpen this year so he's not going to be stretched out or go deep into the game even if he has success. Oakland at home seems like a great value.

    Blue Jays/Rays u7.5 -125

    Rays can't hit anyone and Happ is solid. He's already pitched very well against Tampa Bay in this stadium earlier this year and I just don't see the Rays hitting him. Archer finally looked studly last start and seems to have shaken off his early season issues. Even when he was struggling to get it together he pitched well enough at home against the Blue Jays. Sure seems like a 3-2 type of final score.

    Indians/Phillies o7.5 +110

    Line seems low. Might be okay to play the Phillies also but I have no idea what to expect out of Bauer. Former top prospect who just never seems to get it together. At the end of the day the Phillies are hitting okay and you can't trust Bauer. Eickhoff has been solid enough but Cleveland seems capable offensively. Mostly I made this bet because I don't trust either bullpen and these teams are in a park that treats hitters well.

    White Sox/Orioles u8.5 -115

    I'm a bit worried that Latos finally regresses back to the mean after a string of great starts. Baltimore usually hits well at home but I'll roll the dice. Orioles have hit lefties lately but have struggled against right-handers. Gausman is a guy I expect to have a big year. He's dominant at times and looked great in his season debut. Both teams have excellent bullpens so 8.5 seems a run high for this total.

    Rockies/DBacks o8.5 -110

    Figured this line would be a run higher. Greinke has already been rocked at home once by the Rockies this season and he hasn't looked right. I expect him to do well enough today but the real reason I like this play is because the Diamondbacks might cover the total by themselves. Rusin hasn't had much MLB success starting and Arizona is a tough place to pitch. Rusin has also been out of the bullpen so I'm not sure how long he's capable of going. Once he leaves the Diamondbacks will crush this awful Rockies pen. Seems like there is value here even if Greinke returns to dominant form. Arizona is crushing lefties... just don't think Rusin has a good day.

    Padres +170

    I'll go back to the well after hitting San Diego as a nice dog last night. The Dodgers still aren't hitting. Until they do then anyone they play has a chance to win. Rea has been doable in 3 of 4 starts this year. That's enough to give San Diego a chance, even though their bullpen, as always, is scary. Stripling has regressed a bit since his no-hit debut and has been hittable his last 2. At +170 those are all the reasons I need to give it a shot.
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Hasnt Rea been hit pretty hard the last two out s ?
    I was looking at this game pretty close but laying off ...i personally dont like bad vs bad.
    Nice overlay on your phils game , any reason why you didnt like them ?

    good luck continued success
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    jets96 wrote: »
    Hasnt Rea been hit pretty hard the last two out s ?
    I was looking at this game pretty close but laying off ...i personally dont like bad vs bad.
    Nice overlay on your phils game , any reason why you didnt like them ?

    good luck continued success

    He's put too many guys on base but seems to work out of jams okay. Against most teams I'd figure the runs would come at some point but the Dodgers' offense looks like a bit of a mess lately despite all the talent. If Rea doesn't pitch well I'm okay taking the shot. Line just seemed a bit off since teams have every chance to beat the Dodgers until they start hitting.

    As far as the Phillies I just wanted to reduce my exposure and only play the total. Honestly thought about laying off the total as well. Only reasoning is Trevor Bauer is capable of throwing dominant games but they come after 2 or 3 poor ones. Talented but hasn't put it all together yet. You never know what to expect from that guy. Odds seemed to indicate he throws dominant innings today which scared me off.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Fantastic start to my day. Error leads to 3 runs scoring in my under. Top of the 1st. Lovely.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    jets96 wrote: »
    Hasnt Rea been hit pretty hard the last two out s ?
    I was looking at this game pretty close but laying off ...i personally dont like bad vs bad.
    Nice overlay on your phils game , any reason why you didnt like them ?

    good luck continued success

    Had the phils last night at +180 not coming back with them today. But Rea W/the Pads I liked except for the bullpen which will be in early and the possibility of blowing this game is likely but with the way the Pads are hitting and the Dodgers are not a 1st 5 +165 maybe the way to go.
    Stripling had his 15 minutes of fame. Could be a little pay-back for the first three games of the year.
    Rea will kept you in the game for that long. His 1st start was brutal his next three not that bad but short.

    Good Luck Jake and Jets
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    4-3 +1.45 yesterday.

    35-39 -1.86u on the year.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    My personal lines for 5/1:

    Rays pk, u7.5 -120
    Mets -135, u6.5 -125
    Pirates -200, o8.5 -115
    Orioles pk, u7.5 -120
    Twins -155, 8.5 pk
    Brewers pk, o9 -115
    Cardinals -145, 7 pk
    Cubs -215, u7 -115
    Indians -115, 8 pk
    Rangers -140, u7 -112
    Athletics -140, u7 -120
    Mariners -150, u7 -125

    Really wanted to bet the Orioles but it's been steamed so much there isn't enough value. Blah. That's the downside of capping the day of the games I guess.

    I'd probably play Twins if I wasn't using Bookmaker lines. For some reason they are 9 cents off everywhere else. I'm going to play that game personally but for recordkeeping purposes it's a pass.

    Going to lay off Indians/Phillies over. I have no idea what's up with that massive line move toward the under. Wind is blowing out. Both starters seem hittable enough. I'm missing something and after yesterday where I had the over and neither team could score late I'm still kinda jaded anyway.

    Some value on Angels/Rangers under but with the wind blowing out I'm not going to bite.

    Going to have to leave without capping the whole slate. Have a 9-mile hike ahead of me. Good luck to all!

    My bets for 5/1:

    Cardinals -105

    Scherzer has good numbers but he hasn't actually been pitching that well. He's faced 5 weak offenses and I haven't been that impressed. Not sure where he's at really just yet. St. Louis looking to avoid the sweep here is a spot I like. Washington isn't hitting and Martinez is a stud. St. Louis not hitting much better but I think they can pull out a 4-2 or 4-3 win at home.

    Astros +146
    Astros/A's u8 +113


    Hill has been a stud but Astros hit lefties well. He should have a good game but Houston has a chance to get a run or 2 off of him. Fister is capable of throwing solid innings and Oakland's offense isn't anything special. I went back and forth on whether a Houston play has enough value and ended up taking the plunge as they are looking to avoid the sweep. Ultimately I much prefer the under.

    Royals/Mariners u7.5 -120

    Royals aren't hitting and Walker is a stud. Mariners hitting decently but not great. Kennedy got hit a bit by Seattle twice last season which scares me but this year he's a Royal and has a much improved defense behind him. Just seems like an under.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    3-1 +2.54 today.

    38-40 +.68u on the year.

    Been a grind so far but up 4 or 5 units the last 2 days so hopefully it's turning around.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    My personal lines for 5/2:

    Pirates -135, 7 pk
    Blue Jays pk, 8.5 pk
    Mets -215, 8 pk
    Giants -200, u7.5 -115
    Angels -120, 8.5 pk
    Astros -170, u7.5 -125
    Royals -125, u7 -112
    Cardinals -165, u8 -115
    A's -120, 7.5 pk
    Padres -150, o7 -120

    Lean on Braves/Mets over. Mets might knock in 7 runs themselves and Colon usually gives up a couple when he starts. That being said I'm not sure what to expect out of Foltynewicz now that he seemingly has gotten his control issues figured out a bit. Going to pass since it's his first MLB start of the year.

    Lean Angels and Angels/Brewers under but laying off for now. I love Jimmy Nelson and he should do well but the Brewers' bullpen is so bad. Guessing game is tied 2-2 after 6 and then the Angels score some late runs to win. Brewers' bullpen scared me off the under while Weaver's inconsistency scared me off Angels. Just don't feel comfortable with either bet as of now.

    Some value on Oakland but I'm going to pass. Worried about Graveman's HR tendencies vs. a Seattle lineup with a few guys hitting homers lately.

    What the heck is up with the Padres line? Opened at around -150 where I capped it and now the Rockies are -115 favorites. That's a huge move. Something is up. Not even going to think about touching that game. Shields must be sick or injured or something.

    My bets for 5/2:

    Rangers +131

    Lost in A.J. Griffin's 2 years off for Tommy John is the fact that he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball when he's been healthy. I have no idea why my A's released this guy. He's a stud. More trustworthy than Dickey who gets rocked more often than not anymore. Rangers' bullpen is definitely capable of blowing a late lead but Toronto's pen has fallen apart lately too and I think Texas has the hotter offense. Will take a shot here.

    Giants -1.5 +110

    Big line move the other way would usually scare me away but I'm still going to pop here. Cueto is a stud. Reds not hitting. Cueto might go 9 innings and I can't see Cincinnati scoring more than a run or 2. Finnegan has been pretty good this year and has a chance to do well but San Francicso is also showing excellent plate discipline. Guessing when Finnegan leaves after 6 innings the Giants are up a run or 2. After that San Francisco should pile on against the worst bullpen in baseball. Finnegan uses a million pitches to get through innings against most teams so the bullpen will be exposed either way but San Francisco is drawing a ton of walks lately so we might get 5 bullpen innings today which is great news for the Giants.

    Twins/Astros u8 +100

    Lean Twins here just based on value but I can't go against Keuchel. Minnesota isn't hitting lefties and Keuchel is due for a dominant start. Guessing he goes 8 innings and looks like the Kuechel of old. That being said, I do like Berrios a lot. He was hit a bit in his first start but I can chalk that up to nerves. He didn't put many guys on base and has dominated in the minors. Houston isn't hitting that well. If we lose this bet it will be because of Minnesota's bullpen but with the number set at 8 I feel okay. Guessing Astros are winning 2-1 after 6 innings or so. Hopefully the bullpens don't blow it.
  • Jake T.Jake T. Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    2-0-1 +2.41 on the day. Keuchel screwed me. I'll probably keep playing him, expecting a return to form. Might burn me again later.

    40-40 +3.09 on the year.
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