Cleveland 1h's have been mispriced by the market for a while now. Enjoy it while it lasts. Bookies can't do anything because they can't raise the Full Game total too much at the risk of getting killed on the 'under'. Cleveland's big leads coupled with horrendous play from the scrubs in Q4 leads to low scoring second halves. But if both teams would keep an 8-man rotation playing till the end, the Full Game total should actually be somewhere around the 215-220 range. Cleveland has been averaging 30 points per quarter when the prime players play. Another thing is that their scoring has come easily. So their defensive intensity has not been 100%. Casey playing Luis Scola alone should have raised the total too LOL. Dude can score but is horrendous defense. GL.
1710 1H TOR +2
The angle on this play has been invictus so far these playoffs at 8-0. Has also been highly profitable year in year out. Books know it and have shaded the line a full point downward at open. After the opener of the market brought it down to +2. No guarantees but +EV.
- Statistically speaking Kyrie and Kevin are not going to go 3-12 in the 1H again. They might, but small chance.
- Strategically Lue will switch up the point-guard duties so Toronto can't bring two or sometimes 3 bodies at Kyrie. In gm3 there was simply nowhere to go for him when Toronto did this. Love, James, JR and Shumpert knocking down their outside shots certainly would help.
- No guarantees here, but hopefully Lowry doesn't miss 6 minutes of playing time in the 1H alone due to foul trouble like he did in gm3.
- Valanciunas is probable to play tonight. More offense, worse defense compared to Biyombo.
- Cleveland's 2nd unit headed by LeBron and Channing Frye still boast one of the highest scoring efficiencies in these playoffs.
- Ow yeah, did I mention, even with so much going 'wrong' in gm3, the 1H still went over?
Only 7 foul shots in the 1st half,
3-20 on 3's by Cleveland,
But the worst thing was that they tried to run an offense where LeBron AND Kevin just stood behind the arc and waited for a pass to come their way. Sometimes they tried to set up a pick 'n roll with irving but those were mostly smothered by great Toronto defense. Kevin Love either missed the shots he took or he pump faked, ran 6-7 seconds off the clock and passed it back out. LeBron at least created some scoring but his insistence on taking the outside shots they were giving him was maddening. He's simply not a good shooter from 15 feet or out anymore.
In the 2nd half they finally went back to Kevin Love posting up Scola (bad defender) and Patterson (better defender). James went back to his drives towards the basket, which collapsed the defense and allowed him to dish to open shooters. As I mentioned in an earlier post today, the secondary line-up with James at the 4 and Frye at center was highly effective as evidenced by their raking of field goals in the 4th quarter.
Unfortunately for Cleveland, the foul from Lowry when he stole the ball from leBron wasn't called and LeBron had to foul Lowry to prevent the easy basket. Given the score and the time-left on the clock, that was the game-changer. In my opinion, the more games these 2 teams play, the more I can bet the 1st half over. As I said earlier, this one has been mispriced for awhile now and unless the 2nd halves become high scoring too, there's little the books can do about it.
GSW better have found the solution to stopping the OKC attack in their day off, otherwise this one is over for them. Two factors that led to the high scoring game 3: Quicker pace, Pick 'n Rolls from 28 feet out and positive shooting variance on OKC's part. I'm still expecting an uptempo game, but it is reasonable to expect the shooting to come down and Kerr should have figured out the high PnR which le to a whole lot of lay-ups and dunks.
Saw an interesting stat today. So far in the playoffs, home teams are 52-22 ATS in the first half, and have covered 14 in a row. GL with your wagers Obi
Saw an interesting stat today. So far in the playoffs, home teams are 52-22 ATS in the first half, and have covered 14 in a row. GL with your wagers Obi
Simple reasoning behind this one,
You lose your out, for Toronto. They really rock up there over the border. Let's hope Lowry doesn't get into foul trouble. Good luck to you too! Good to hear from you.
Comments
Very unfortunate injury to Steven Adams, try to buy out of it in live betting. Thunder a sieve on defense now. Sucks.
Hope everybody read this too late .
Lowry hurt, Raps offense in shambles. Taking Cleveland -2.5 for 2H
2708 CLE -2.5 2H
Cleveland 1h's have been mispriced by the market for a while now. Enjoy it while it lasts. Bookies can't do anything because they can't raise the Full Game total too much at the risk of getting killed on the 'under'. Cleveland's big leads coupled with horrendous play from the scrubs in Q4 leads to low scoring second halves. But if both teams would keep an 8-man rotation playing till the end, the Full Game total should actually be somewhere around the 215-220 range. Cleveland has been averaging 30 points per quarter when the prime players play. Another thing is that their scoring has come easily. So their defensive intensity has not been 100%. Casey playing Luis Scola alone should have raised the total too LOL. Dude can score but is horrendous defense. GL.
1710 1H TOR +2
The angle on this play has been invictus so far these playoffs at 8-0. Has also been highly profitable year in year out. Books know it and have shaded the line a full point downward at open. After the opener of the market brought it down to +2. No guarantees but +EV.
CLE -7.5
Love 0 (zero) points, Irving 3-12 on Field goals, watch them roar back.
Hard to roar back when they both combine to go 1-12 in 2H.
For Sunday,
Line hasn't bulged much yet. Going with current number.
1702 GSW/ OKC U 111 1H
Here's why this remains a strong play:
- Statistically speaking Kyrie and Kevin are not going to go 3-12 in the 1H again. They might, but small chance.
- Strategically Lue will switch up the point-guard duties so Toronto can't bring two or sometimes 3 bodies at Kyrie. In gm3 there was simply nowhere to go for him when Toronto did this. Love, James, JR and Shumpert knocking down their outside shots certainly would help.
- No guarantees here, but hopefully Lowry doesn't miss 6 minutes of playing time in the 1H alone due to foul trouble like he did in gm3.
- Valanciunas is probable to play tonight. More offense, worse defense compared to Biyombo.
- Cleveland's 2nd unit headed by LeBron and Channing Frye still boast one of the highest scoring efficiencies in these playoffs.
- Ow yeah, did I mention, even with so much going 'wrong' in gm3, the 1H still went over?
2h CLE/TOR O96.5
Only 7 foul shots in the 1st half,
3-20 on 3's by Cleveland,
But the worst thing was that they tried to run an offense where LeBron AND Kevin just stood behind the arc and waited for a pass to come their way. Sometimes they tried to set up a pick 'n roll with irving but those were mostly smothered by great Toronto defense. Kevin Love either missed the shots he took or he pump faked, ran 6-7 seconds off the clock and passed it back out. LeBron at least created some scoring but his insistence on taking the outside shots they were giving him was maddening. He's simply not a good shooter from 15 feet or out anymore.
In the 2nd half they finally went back to Kevin Love posting up Scola (bad defender) and Patterson (better defender). James went back to his drives towards the basket, which collapsed the defense and allowed him to dish to open shooters. As I mentioned in an earlier post today, the secondary line-up with James at the 4 and Frye at center was highly effective as evidenced by their raking of field goals in the 4th quarter.
Unfortunately for Cleveland, the foul from Lowry when he stole the ball from leBron wasn't called and LeBron had to foul Lowry to prevent the easy basket. Given the score and the time-left on the clock, that was the game-changer. In my opinion, the more games these 2 teams play, the more I can bet the 1st half over. As I said earlier, this one has been mispriced for awhile now and unless the 2nd halves become high scoring too, there's little the books can do about it.
1717 CLE/TOR O101.5
1718 CLE -7 1H
GSW better have found the solution to stopping the OKC attack in their day off, otherwise this one is over for them. Two factors that led to the high scoring game 3: Quicker pace, Pick 'n Rolls from 28 feet out and positive shooting variance on OKC's part. I'm still expecting an uptempo game, but it is reasonable to expect the shooting to come down and Kerr should have figured out the high PnR which le to a whole lot of lay-ups and dunks.
716 OKC +1.5 for the Game.
Good luck.
GSW flustered, can play better, and probably will, but not going to run away with this game.
2H bet,
2718 TOR/CLE U94.5
Was expecting an uptempo Q3 with high scoring and a low-scoring Q4, but the current scoring is simply ridiculous.
Came close! Only 95.
1722 TOR +3.5
Saw an interesting stat today. So far in the playoffs, home teams are 52-22 ATS in the first half, and have covered 14 in a row. GL with your wagers Obi
Simple reasoning behind this one,
You lose your out, for Toronto. They really rock up there over the border. Let's hope Lowry doesn't get into foul trouble. Good luck to you too! Good to hear from you.
Absolutely a bad number, sorry about that, tail at your own risk
Q1 CLE/GSW U55
Q3 CLE/GSW O50.5
LeBron James O7.5 Assists -115 (5D)
Kyrie Irving Q1 O6.5 points -105 (5D)
Tristan Thompson Rebounds O9.5 -105 (5D)
Channing Fyre O7.5 points -105 (5D)
Stephen Curry Rebounds & Assists O12 -105 (5D)
Andrew Bogut Points & Rebounds & Assists O13 +115 (5D)
Andre Iguodala 3pt FG made O2.5 +450 (0.5 unit) (5D)
Kyrie Irving has a Double-Double +900 (0.3 unit) (5D)
LeBron James has a Triple Double +550 (0.4 unit) (5D)