Betting Talk

Guys, I got Lecesiter at 5,000-1 to win the EPL...

beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
edited May 2016 in Sports Betting
Well at least I could have spelled the team right...LOL!!

Gods honest truth. Don't post much but almost to the biggest payday of my gambling life. Its only for 1.00.Made it at 5dimes back in Sept. Been sitting on it all this time and have not hedged anything. I think now I am going to pull the trigger at taking the field at +385.Cant imagine a better spot to be in. I remember Goats saying don't hedge unless its a life changing amount of money. Well, 5000 is not life changing but sure as hell will help the mortgage and day care for a few months if I can guarantee 1/4th of that.
I really think they are going to win it but something in my gut tells me they are finally going to pull a Spieth and start thinking about it and may get caught on the last day. Not going to get caught with my pants down here and say making 1500 on a hedge at +400 seems like the right thing to do. Yeah its only a 1.00 lost if they don't win but not going to blow this chance.

Feel free to post your thoughts and opinions. Either way its been a hell of a ride this season.

By the way in case you're wondering 5simes doesn't allow I think anymore than 5.00 on that big a of a future bet if that. So anyone saying "DUDE why didn't you bet 20,00 you could have made 100,000" then there's your answer.

good luck to all of you in your wagering!

Comments

  • turksureturksure Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    do it, had Willitt at 38-1 Sunday bet after round 2, it can help. GL
  • BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Damn thats a nice future play. I'd hedge all day. Especially in that position... like playing blackjack and hit 21, but dealer shows an Ace too. I'm taking even money every time with a big grin on my face.

    Curious to hear others...
  • BuckyBadgerBuckyBadger Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    BIGtimerDC wrote: »
    Damn thats a nice future play. I'd hedge all day. Especially in that position... like playing blackjack and hit 21, but dealer shows an Ace too. I'm taking even money every time with a big grin on my face.

    Curious to hear others...
    Unless you're counting, and the deck is rich, why would you take even money. You're giving away one of the edges you have. Taking even money will clearly cost you money in the long run.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Hey Beefcake,

    Here's the case to wait 1 more game and get better odds on your hedge:

    Leicester City are playing West Ham United this coming sunday. It will be Leicester City's 3rd game in 4 weeks!!! This is a fully rested squad. While their opponent, West Ham United, will be playing their 3rd game in 10 days. Another factor is that West Ham United's only chance to win a prize this season is by winning today against Manchester United. You can be sure that they'll give everything in this match.

    Given that Leicester is playing solid soccer, with a very rested squad, while their opponent will have tired legs and might be deflated if they lose to the Mancunians ,......I'd take my chances and wait 1 more week.

    Assuming a Tottenham win this weekend, there will be a 7 point gap, with 4 games to go. You should get much better odds.
  • BIGtimerDCBIGtimerDC Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Unless you're counting, and the deck is rich, why would you take even money. You're giving away one of the edges you have. Taking even money will clearly cost you money in the long run.

    Take even money because it is a sure thing.. odds are what - 30% push? or 70% win 3/2 ... or 100 % win (even money)?
    understand the odds are very slightly in casino favor of course or why else offer it.. but a sure thing is tough to pass on if you're not tracking a huge sample size
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Assuming you're not counting,

    odds of a push are 4/13 = 30,76%
    odds of a win are 9/13 = 69,23%

    If you take even money every time, your profit is 100%
    If you don't take even money, your profit is 69.23% of 1,5 units, which is 103,84%

    Don't be a square. Go for the edge.Good Luck.
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Wow, I am getting blackjack advice too to boot!
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Wow, Vardy might get 2 or more games now...I picked the right time to hedge...My luck continues..
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2016
    beefcake wrote: »
    Wow, Vardy might get 2 or more games now...I picked the right time to hedge...My luck continues..

    I think it'll be a game (for the red) and a nice fine. They could even go with 2 games. But I don't see any way that he gets more than 2.
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Still missing Manu might be crucial
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Can I get West Brom to play their arses off for just one game??
  • rcmoneyrcmoney Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Congrats ⚽️ I was rooting for you
    Great job
    RC Money
  • jimmymojimmymo Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Congratulations -- one of the coolest things I have heard/seen in a while -- well fukkin played!
  • beefcakebeefcake Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Thanks guys!!

    Now trying to get the money from 5dimes hopefully wont be problematic.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Good job Beefcake!! Tony might get even with you in 2020 and he can't cut your limits:toast:
  • originalokieoriginalokie Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Great job my man!!!
  • firstclassfirstclass Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    did you get paid ?
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