2016 Picks
BennyProfane
Senior Member
I have decided to post all my picks in the following thread. It will be a continuation of the ideas contained in this thread: http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/179651-Followers
Based on the overwhelming response I got to it, I doubt there will be interest. But in case there is, I will post. Some of the picks will be things that I originate, and when that is the case, I will include a write-up of reasons why I like the bet. On many of the picks, it will probably be obvious that they aren't mine if they are a favorite or an over. One thing I will say is that I will never post a game if I didn't bet it.
My goal at present is to average five picks a day for approximately the next six months. I will try to pick exactly 1,000 games, against the pinnacle/bookmaker line. I will keep an up-to-date record at all times. A month ago, I had thought that my strategy for the upcoming baseball season would be completely different. I'm just too convinced that being a follower never works. However, the data is too interesting to be ignored, and a thread like this will be an excellent indicator of whether or not is does actually work.
One more thing: Threads like this only work if there is discussion. If anyone reading has any ideas, PLEASE contribute them.
Brief life update: I am still living in Memphis, and my wife and I celebrated our first anniversary last month.
For this evening:
New Jersey-Tampa under 5 (-135)
Montreal-Florida under 5 1/2 (-133)
Detroit-Toronto under 5 1/2 (-140)
812 Oklahoma +2 1/2
Based on the overwhelming response I got to it, I doubt there will be interest. But in case there is, I will post. Some of the picks will be things that I originate, and when that is the case, I will include a write-up of reasons why I like the bet. On many of the picks, it will probably be obvious that they aren't mine if they are a favorite or an over. One thing I will say is that I will never post a game if I didn't bet it.
My goal at present is to average five picks a day for approximately the next six months. I will try to pick exactly 1,000 games, against the pinnacle/bookmaker line. I will keep an up-to-date record at all times. A month ago, I had thought that my strategy for the upcoming baseball season would be completely different. I'm just too convinced that being a follower never works. However, the data is too interesting to be ignored, and a thread like this will be an excellent indicator of whether or not is does actually work.
One more thing: Threads like this only work if there is discussion. If anyone reading has any ideas, PLEASE contribute them.
Brief life update: I am still living in Memphis, and my wife and I celebrated our first anniversary last month.
For this evening:
New Jersey-Tampa under 5 (-135)
Montreal-Florida under 5 1/2 (-133)
Detroit-Toronto under 5 1/2 (-140)
812 Oklahoma +2 1/2
Comments
NHL
Boston-Chicago over 5 (-143)
Philadelphia-Pitt under 5 1/2 (-130)
St. Louis-Colorado over 5 (-130)
NBA
504 Dallas-Minny under 206
3-2 (+.57)
Hey, thanks!
You're actually the first person to say this.
Actually, he's the second person. http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/179132-NBA-One-a-Day-Thread-2015-16/page29
2nd half
Los Angeles-San Diego over 5 1/2 (-125)
Atlanta +156
So this is what it feels like to bet a favorite. Weird. I'm actually expecting to lose.
6-4 +1.17
Mr. Arrieta's past two years have been outstanding and last year was just flat out sick. He totaled 248 innings last year more then 100 from the prior year. including the playoffs. I feel IMO 2016 will be a different story for Mr. Arrieta. The expectations for the entire Cubs teams is through the roof. Like Washington last year. Lets see how a bunch of new faces get together and reach what people are expecting. That's pressure. There were only 13 pitchers with 15 or more wins last year and I don't think Mr. Arrieta gets there this year reason for my Under 15.5 wins bet.
Tonight against the Angels will be an interesting look at the new cubbies. Yes I understand it's just the first game but it should be interesting. Now I'm a baseball guy and I fully understand there's so many BS stats in baseball and Pitcher wins and loss's are one of them. but it's still an interesting stat. I prefer to look at the wins and loss's of the team when that particular starter starts the game. I'm going to take the Home Dog Angels +130 for this post. I'm seeing the number trend upwards so I'll wait a little and +130 should be easy if I can't do better.
Fade that steam.
Good call man! Appreciate the play. I feel terrible for Marcus, his grandfather is in my grandpa's card club. Tremendous family and even better kid. Watching the replays of his shot I can't believe he made it. Poor defense by UNC on that last possession but I honestly think they though Nova was goin to the big man on a lob or some sort. Tremendous title game no doubt about it, over was never in doubt
718 Sacramento +2 1/2
722 Under 206 1/2 (-105)
Looking hard at Milwaukee, Miami, and Colorado as being right sides in MLB.
9-6 (+1.92)
I'm already starting to think that this isn't working. I had said in the original post that the compelling factor was that the picks weren't being made into stale lines. Now that I'm following for longer than a week, it seems like too many of them are being made into heavy juiced lines like NHL totals. That makes the won-loss record much less impressive. But the tracked won units mark is still sky-high, and I'll continue to follow and monitor. For posted picks, I'm going to try to only include lines where the juice is less than -120. And yes, pretty much every single non-posted pick has won.
Please grade all hoops at -110. Thanks.
LA/Calgary under 5 1/2 (-131)
Have to think there's no public money coming in on the Brewers after their performance in the first two games. Samardzija was 11-13 with a 4.96 era last year, so it's hard to understand why the oddsmaker trusts him to be this heavy of a road favorite. Worth a small bet.
NHL:
Columbus -113
701 Over 214 (-110)
NHL:
Tampa Bay-New Jersey Under 5 (-141)
16-9 (+5.99)
Arizona-Nashville under 5 1/2 (-126)
972 Minnesota/Kansas City under 7 1/2 (-120)
NBA:
Lakers-Pelicans over 202 1/2
Ottawa-Boston Under 5 1/2 (-127)
Philly-Pitt Under 5 1/2 (-129)
22-13 +7.13
Calgary Under 5 1/2 (-134)
One of the few games I've actually handicapped myself in this thread.
970 White Sox-Indians Under 7 1/2 (-104)
24-16 (+5.72)