Betting Talk

2016 Picks

BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
edited December 2016 in Sports Betting
I have decided to post all my picks in the following thread. It will be a continuation of the ideas contained in this thread: http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/179651-Followers
Based on the overwhelming response I got to it, I doubt there will be interest. But in case there is, I will post. Some of the picks will be things that I originate, and when that is the case, I will include a write-up of reasons why I like the bet. On many of the picks, it will probably be obvious that they aren't mine if they are a favorite or an over. One thing I will say is that I will never post a game if I didn't bet it.
My goal at present is to average five picks a day for approximately the next six months. I will try to pick exactly 1,000 games, against the pinnacle/bookmaker line. I will keep an up-to-date record at all times. A month ago, I had thought that my strategy for the upcoming baseball season would be completely different. I'm just too convinced that being a follower never works. However, the data is too interesting to be ignored, and a thread like this will be an excellent indicator of whether or not is does actually work.
One more thing: Threads like this only work if there is discussion. If anyone reading has any ideas, PLEASE contribute them.
Brief life update: I am still living in Memphis, and my wife and I celebrated our first anniversary last month.

For this evening:
New Jersey-Tampa under 5 (-135)
Montreal-Florida under 5 1/2 (-133)
Detroit-Toronto under 5 1/2 (-140)

812 Oklahoma +2 1/2
«13456720

Comments

  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Calgary-Edmonton under 5 1/2 (-129)
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Belated congrats on the anniversary . I'm an angles player I have a few that I play and also play the Stoffo Home Dogs and most times play the Stoffo Unders after three starts by the pitchers usually by the 3rd week in April. I will visit most every day and I should have a sentence or two most occasions. I'll do my best and wish you the best.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Thx for the picks dude!
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Sunday picks:
    NHL
    Boston-Chicago over 5 (-143)
    Philadelphia-Pitt under 5 1/2 (-130)
    St. Louis-Colorado over 5 (-130)

    NBA
    504 Dallas-Minny under 206

    3-2 (+.57)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    congrats on the anniversary .

    Hey, thanks!
    You're actually the first person to say this.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Hey, thanks!
    You're actually the first person to say this.

    Actually, he's the second person. http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/179132-NBA-One-a-Day-Thread-2015-16/page29
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Washington-LA Clippers under 100 1/2
    2nd half
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Minnesota-Baltimore over 8 1/2 (-125)
    Los Angeles-San Diego over 5 1/2 (-125)
    Atlanta +156
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Rangers -127
    So this is what it feels like to bet a favorite. Weird. I'm actually expecting to lose.

    6-4 +1.17
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Pretty ballsey for a man who plays Dogs laying it against the King.

    Mr. Arrieta's past two years have been outstanding and last year was just flat out sick. He totaled 248 innings last year more then 100 from the prior year. including the playoffs. I feel IMO 2016 will be a different story for Mr. Arrieta. The expectations for the entire Cubs teams is through the roof. Like Washington last year. Lets see how a bunch of new faces get together and reach what people are expecting. That's pressure. There were only 13 pitchers with 15 or more wins last year and I don't think Mr. Arrieta gets there this year reason for my Under 15.5 wins bet.

    Tonight against the Angels will be an interesting look at the new cubbies. Yes I understand it's just the first game but it should be interesting. Now I'm a baseball guy and I fully understand there's so many BS stats in baseball and Pitcher wins and loss's are one of them. but it's still an interesting stat. I prefer to look at the wins and loss's of the team when that particular starter starts the game. I'm going to take the Home Dog Angels +130 for this post. I'm seeing the number trend upwards so I'll wait a little and +130 should be easy if I can't do better.
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    601 Over 149 1/2
    Fade that steam.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    601 Over 149 1/2
    Fade that steam.

    Good call man! Appreciate the play. I feel terrible for Marcus, his grandfather is in my grandpa's card club. Tremendous family and even better kid. Watching the replays of his shot I can't believe he made it. Poor defense by UNC on that last possession but I honestly think they though Nova was goin to the big man on a lob or some sort. Tremendous title game no doubt about it, over was never in doubt ;)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    922 Under 7 (-134)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    714 Under 183 1/2
    718 Sacramento +2 1/2
    722 Under 206 1/2 (-105)

    Looking hard at Milwaukee, Miami, and Colorado as being right sides in MLB.

    9-6 (+1.92)

    I'm already starting to think that this isn't working. I had said in the original post that the compelling factor was that the picks weren't being made into stale lines. Now that I'm following for longer than a week, it seems like too many of them are being made into heavy juiced lines like NHL totals. That makes the won-loss record much less impressive. But the tracked won units mark is still sky-high, and I'll continue to follow and monitor. For posted picks, I'm going to try to only include lines where the juice is less than -120. And yes, pretty much every single non-posted pick has won.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2016
    722 Under 206 1/2 (-105)

    Please grade all hoops at -110. Thanks.
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    NHL:
    LA/Calgary under 5 1/2 (-131)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    952 Milwaukee +128
    Have to think there's no public money coming in on the Brewers after their performance in the first two games. Samardzija was 11-13 with a 4.96 era last year, so it's hard to understand why the oddsmaker trusts him to be this heavy of a road favorite. Worth a small bet.
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    964 Tampa Bay +115

    NHL:
    Columbus -113
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    953 Colorado +135
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    958 Under 7 (+105)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    907 Over 9 (-116)

    701 Over 214 (-110)

    NHL:
    Tampa Bay-New Jersey Under 5 (-141)

    16-9 (+5.99)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    NHL:
    Arizona-Nashville under 5 1/2 (-126)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Winnipeg-San Jose under 5 1/2 (-126)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    964 Yankees/Tigers Under 8 (-113)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    961 Dodgers +102
    972 Minnesota/Kansas City under 7 1/2 (-120)

    NBA:
    Lakers-Pelicans over 202 1/2
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    974 Angels under 8 (-117)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Morning NHL:
    Ottawa-Boston Under 5 1/2 (-127)
    Philly-Pitt Under 5 1/2 (-129)

    22-13 +7.13
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Edmonton -114
    Calgary Under 5 1/2 (-134)
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    930 Brewers +134
    One of the few games I've actually handicapped myself in this thread.
  • BennyProfaneBennyProfane Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    962 Rockies (-108)
    970 White Sox-Indians Under 7 1/2 (-104)
    24-16 (+5.72)
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