Betting Talk

2016 NBA thread

sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
edited June 2016 in Sports Betting
Jazz -2
«1

Comments

  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    Pacers +8
    Lakers +10
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    record 2-1

    Magic -1
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    Knicks +6
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    Wizards +2.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    Jazz +4.5
    Nuggets +2
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited March 2016
    Hawks +8
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited March 2016
    Twolves +3
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited March 2016
    Jazz -1
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited March 2016
    Bulls -1
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited March 2016
    Suns +10.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited March 2016
    Record: 7-6

    Celtics -11.5
    Suns -2
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited April 2016
    Charlotte Over 192.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Portland +9
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Toronto -5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Warriors -6
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Okl City +1
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Record: 11-10

    Toronto -4.5

    As with baseball, who play the same team in bunches (series), NBA playoffs have two same teams play each other for 4-7 games, one advancing. But in baseball the pitchers change, a huge difference. So in an NBA playoff series, barring injury(s), what differs game after game? More or less, the Vegas line remains the same home vs. away, shading one way or the other based on who lost in last (zig-zag tendency). Is this safe to say? If so, it makes these games either easier or harder on the handicapper, depending on the handicapper. If you depend mostly on Moneyball-type stats and hard data, I would assume these games are more difficult since the numbers don't change much. But if you have methods that in some way take into account prior game result and what more often then not ensues in next game (trends, etc.), then these games could be better for you.

    I don't pretend to be either. But I will use this game as an example of one approach to assessing NBA playoff games. It's NOT the only way and may not even be the right way, according to many, but so be it. This forum is not just about picks per se, but also discussion and exploring handicapping methods -- teach a person to fish, don't just give them fish.

    It can be fairly straight forward to arrive at the posted line. Toronto is -4.5 today. Viewing home/away scoring, Miami is 96-98.5 for away scoring offense / opposition scoring. Toronto is 103.5-97.5 at home. Combining those numbers, you get: (103.5+98.5)/2 and (96+97.5)/2 which equals approximately 101-97 as a final score for this game in favor of Toronto. And lo/behold a 4 point margin favoring Toronto, which is pretty darn close to today's official Toronto -4.5 line. No rocket science here, pretty simple.

    Perhaps what is interesting is the current O/U is 189, meaning the Vegas interpolated final outcome using -4.5 is Toronto winning by about 97-92 final score, which versus my 101-97, has the Vegas interpolation score favoring Under my 198 total.

    But back to the side play, using rudimentary stats, the Toronto -4.5 line appears more/less understandable. What to do with this, pass? I can say I've done the above simple math many times and the Vegas line more often than not is not too far off this simple-math line. Reminder, Vegas just wants 50/50 money, again give/take. But if you did this simple math and expected the line to be WAY off, you'd be waiting along time and have few plays (never mind the plays would be questionable since based on such a simple method).

    So hopefully your method(s) is a lot more sophisticated (and presumably successful), meaning you arrive at more plays. I will lay out a not-overly-complex approach here that gets beyond the simple math but doesn't involve esoteric metrics or trends.

    As with most teams, Toronto fares better at home and predictably Miami fares worse on the road. Toronto is 37-11 at home and 26-21 away, Miami is 33-15 at home and 22-25 away. As I showed above with simple math, much of this is reflected in the Toronto -4.5 line. In fact, the three games in this series at Toronto, the Raptors have laid -3.5, then -5, then -4.5 and now -4.5 -- pretty tight.

    Miami has averaged 47% FG % and 34% 3-pt %,; Toronto has averaged 44.5% FG % and 36% 3-pt %. In the last game, at Miami, the Heat shot 47.6% FG and 35% 3-pt, whereas Toronto shot 41.5% FG and 25% 3-pt. So Miami more/less shot their averages whereas Toronto clearly did not. So now Toronto returns home for do-or-die Game 7 and I will expect Toronto to revert to better form and play better than they did in last game, and likewise on the road I will expect Miami to at least play a bit under their overall shooting averages.

    So isn't this just the old zig-zag method? Yes, but I would argue not just blindly applied. In this case, it's Game 7, at home for Toronto, off a below average game for them, AND vegas has not shaded the line as they often do for zig-zag, meaning the line should be -5.5 or even -6, but instead it's "just" -4.5. Some of the likely reasons for this are the public is on the Heat here by 60/40 to 70/30 margin, depending on the web site you view, but also Toronto has gone 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in this post-season. I'm OK with both of those reasons, preferring to be against the public AND these dumb short-term trends are statistically meaningless and yet the public gobbles them up. If anything, a 2-8 ATS trend favors Toronto as the line gets gradually skewed in their favor so Vegas can get trend back to more/less 50/50, but whatever, the small sample size is the real culprit.

    So there you have it, I'm on Toronto -4.5 here. Yeah, of course, it may lose, but the above reasoning beats the heck out of a coin flip!
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Toronto +11

    Using much of what I wrote in my last posting (see above), the simple math comes out to about a 102-98 or 102-99 Cleveland win here. That 3 or 4 pt margin is quite a bit off from the +11 spread. The public is all over Cavs and although Toronto won and covered in their last game, they're still just 3-8 ATS in their last 11, which again is a dumb short-term trend but the public goes with this stuff. I always try to be against the public or conventional "wisdom". And remember, the Cavs have been off since May 8th, they may be a bit rusty in their first game back. I'll take my chances with bloated spread.

    I passed on yesterday's game but the simple math had the game at 111-106 Warriors, or 5 pt margin, too close to 7.5 pt spread.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    GS/Okl City Under 224

    Whelp, couldn't have been more wrong yesterday, talk about a thumping. Onward...

    The simple math in tonight's game remains at about a 217 total. Projecting a reversion to mean, esp. for GS, I have the game at a 221 total. The public is all over the OVER, as is usually the case in most sports, but these two teams just scream OVER to Joe Shmoe handicapper, further goosing the total higher.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Toronto +12

    Coming back on Raptors. Simple math at 4 pt line, and reversion to form also at around -4 line. Cavs going to shoot ridiculous 55% (!!) again? Doubtful. Raptors going to shoot just 21% treys? Maybe, but unlikely. Raptors now on 3-9 ATS post-season run and public is all over Cavs here.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Toronto +5.5

    Raptors played better in last game but not good enough to cover. Could there be fundamental match-up problems? Perhaps. But Toronto beat the Cavs both times they played in Toronto this season and Cavs were laying -2.5 and -3 in those games compared to today's generous -5.5. And both of these teams are quite different home vs. away, with Toronto 38-11 at home 26-23 away and Cavs are 39-8 home and 28-17 away. With Cavs up 2-0 in series, and this do-or-die game for Toronto, we may see Cavs possibly travel here a tad flat, and we saw what Toronto did to Miami with back against wall in game 7 at home six days ago. Cavs are on a 10-0 SU run in postseason and Raptors on a horrid 3-10 ATS run, further goosing the line. Public all over Cavs.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    GS/Okl City Under 220.5

    Total has come down from 224 at start of this series, but still find some value in the Under. The public sees these two teams as run-and-gun scoring machines, and while that's not untrue, what gets lost is these two teams are terrific defensive teams. The simple math has the total at around 214, and running various scenarios I get 215-218, with 220.5 still a high posted total. Both of these teams are very good at defending the trey and when they get together it's rare to see over a combined 20 treys made. Assuming 60 pts max in treys, I get about 120 points in combined 2-pointers, leaving free throws which should amount to 35 max combined = 215 points.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    Toronto +6.5

    Love it, line has risen a point since last game due likely to zig-zag factor, plus again public all over Cavs. Simple math at Toronto -1, and I have Toronto winning by as much as 7 in one scenario. As wrote in last, these two teams quite different home vs. away.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    GS/Okl City Under 222

    Whelp, this match-up sailed over the total in last, the main reason why? Try 52 total points in free throws! For these two teams we should expect more like 35-36 total points from FTs. And the Thunder shooting 50% FG overall is unlikely to repeat versus a very good defending GS team. I've worked the game a few different ways and come up with about 214.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited May 2016
    GS/Okl City Over 219

    I have the side between 5-9, too close to 6.5. But the total I have up to 234. I typically lean to Unders given the public bias to Overs, but along with my crunched numbers, my sense is when a dog has win in it's grasp, and slips away to Game 7 on road for that dog, assuming loss becomes evident late, the game comes undone leading to some dumb points late = Over. And yes, I think GS wins SU, but not sure about the cover.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    Golden State -6

    Got the total wrong in last, with GS slumbering out to a 42 point first half vs. Okl City before finally waking up in the 2nd half. Have to think that doesn't happen here in Game 1 of Finals. The simple math has GS at -5, but I have GS winning by as much as 20.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    GS/Cleve OVER 206

    I have the side too close to call, but the total I have between 212 to 217.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    Cavs +5.5 and OVER 208.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    Cavs/GS OVER 207.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    Record: 20-15

    Cavs +5

    On a nice little run going 9-5 ATS of late, hoping to close out NBA with a win. Simple math has game right about where Vegas has it at -5 and 207. But when doing various scenarios, I have Cavs actually winning game by as much as 7, in part because of momentum. Clearly the Cavs have shifted into another gear whereas GS often times have looked uncharacteristically aimless. Go figure. With GS returning home with backs against wall, can they reverse things and win 2nd in a row Championship, against last year's same foe? Of course. But note that last year GS won it all in 6 games, coming off convincing wins over Cavs in games 4 & 5 -- they had momentum going into Game 6. Not the case today. Plus it's my sense in this game 7 with Lebron & Cavs playing as they are now, the home court edge for GS will be smaller than usual. In fact, Lebron has taken over games in the past, not many in NBA history could do this (MJ, Kobe). And mind you, whereas the spread is usually meaningless with these two teams in post-season (i.e. they win SU & ATS, or lose SU & ATS), I can see this game being close, esp. at end, where the +5 might actually be a nice gift.
Sign In or Register to comment.