Trump in New Hampshire
paddyboy111
Senior Member
5Dimes has Trump at -185 to win New Hampshire next Tuesday. RealClearPolitics has Trump with a 21 point lead, which looks pretty strong. Only one poll has been issued since Iowa, it is day 3 of the UMass/7News poll and it showed Trump with 38% in each of the 3 days of polling, the days before, of, and after Iowa. Rubio jumped 2 and Kasich dropped 2 on the 3rd day.
But the problem here is that there are only 6 days until New Hampshire, and 3 of them are going to all about the SuperBowl, so not alot of time for voters to change their minds.
More importantly, voters cant get their story straight as to which candidate to unite behind: Cruz, Christie, Rubio, Kasich, and Jeb have split 45% of the vote 5 ways nearly evenly. It is not like Iowa where folks can jump ship to an obvious contender. But he is probably at 10%-15% today, that will be his high water mark.
In conclusion, Trump at -185 probably will move. 5D will likely shift their line below -500 if the polls come out Thursday/Friday and have Trump with a 20 point lead. Bookmaker is already at -324 probably in response to the day 3 of the Umass poll.
Kasich is worth a flier at 16-1 on Bookmaker for New Hampshire, if he has a big poll candidates could break towards him, NH folks like to be contrarian and go for a 'smarter' candidate.
PS if you want to track polls you can get on twitter or if you dont mind waiting a few hours, go to RealClearPolitics and click on the polls listing and click on the name of the contest (e.g. New Hampshire Republican Primary) and it will give you a good breakdown and weighted average. You can click on the poll name itself to get the details, especially the all-important daily split if it is a multi-day poll.
But the problem here is that there are only 6 days until New Hampshire, and 3 of them are going to all about the SuperBowl, so not alot of time for voters to change their minds.
More importantly, voters cant get their story straight as to which candidate to unite behind: Cruz, Christie, Rubio, Kasich, and Jeb have split 45% of the vote 5 ways nearly evenly. It is not like Iowa where folks can jump ship to an obvious contender. But he is probably at 10%-15% today, that will be his high water mark.
In conclusion, Trump at -185 probably will move. 5D will likely shift their line below -500 if the polls come out Thursday/Friday and have Trump with a 20 point lead. Bookmaker is already at -324 probably in response to the day 3 of the Umass poll.
Kasich is worth a flier at 16-1 on Bookmaker for New Hampshire, if he has a big poll candidates could break towards him, NH folks like to be contrarian and go for a 'smarter' candidate.
PS if you want to track polls you can get on twitter or if you dont mind waiting a few hours, go to RealClearPolitics and click on the polls listing and click on the name of the contest (e.g. New Hampshire Republican Primary) and it will give you a good breakdown and weighted average. You can click on the poll name itself to get the details, especially the all-important daily split if it is a multi-day poll.
Comments
I disagree. If Bernie is running away with NH, expect Independents to vote in droves in the GOP primary, probably for Kasich or Jeb, or whoever the most opposite of trump candidate is.
the jan 15 polls were accurate, for some reason the flipped them on jan 16, I think it was in response to cruz bringing up ny values, which helped him not hurt him like media and polls suggest
In New Hampshire, 26% of the population is registered Democrat, 30% Republican, and 44% INDEPENDENT
The surge in voters in Iowa was based on Trump. The Republican anti-Trump surge was much higher than the pro-Trump surge. But in Iowa you have to be a registered republican and make a big time commitment. New Hampshire is different because the independents can fairly easily show up and click 'like' or 'dislike' for Trump. It is almost a certainty that Independents will outnumber republicans in the primary. Nobody is talking about Hilary/Bernie at the super bowl party on Sunday, it is all about Trump.
So the Trump surge will be dominated by independents in New Hampshire rather than Republicans. Most of the independents prefer Hilary and Bernie to any republican and tell pollsters they are voting in the democratic primary. But they may shift if their race is a blowout, and vote against Trump.
Kasich regularly polls more than twice as high among independents as for republicans. Among Bernie/Hilary supporters like the NY Times, Kasich is their pick. He dominates among younger women and educated, beating Trump in those categories. If he does well in the debate (at which Trump will stand in center and Kasich/RUbio likely 2nd/3rd on either side) he has a shot. He also picks up cerebral votes of Paul and Fiorina.