Betting Talk

NFL Playoffs

ebemissebemiss Senior Member
edited February 2016 in Sports Betting
Played

102 Houston +3.5 -113
104 Minnesota +5 -114

(current lines at Pinnacle)

my numbers for opening weekend

Away Away Home Home Total Away Home Date Location
Kansas City Chiefs 17.98 Houston Texans 20.23 38.2 2.25 -2.25 1/9/2016 (Home)
Pittsburgh Steelers 24.13 Cincinnati Bengals 20.33 44.46 -3.8 3.8 1/9/2016 (Home)
Seattle Seahawks 21.9 Minnesota Vikings 22.1 44 0.2 -0.2 1/10/2016 (Home)
Green Bay Packers 24.43 Washington Redskins 22.03 46.47 -2.4 2.4 1/10/2016 (Home)

scoring breakdowns (1h vs 2h points scored/allowed overtime not included)

NFL average is at 50% of 1h vs 2h points

1H SCORING 2H SCORING
Arizona 0.499 0.501
Carolina 0.485 0.515
Cincinnati 0.467 0.533
Denver 0.484 0.516
Green Bay 0.475 0.525
Houston 0.520 0.480
Kansas City 0.531 0.469
Minnesota 0.487 0.513
New England 0.470 0.530
Pittsburgh 0.478 0.522
Seattle 0.484 0.516
Washington 0.482 0.518

using current lines and pct's 1h totals come out to

KC/Houston 21 actual 20
Pitt/Cincy 21.5 actual 23
Sea/Min 19.2 actual 20
GB/Wash 21.5 actual 21.5

Looks like Pit/Cin only a little value for 1h. Nothing major

Comments

  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    1/9

    105 Pittsburgh -1.5
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    1/10

    103 OVER Seattle/Minnesota 39.5
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Divisional round

    305 Seattle +3
    304 Arizona -7
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    307 Pittsburgh +7.5
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Conference Championships

    312 Denver +3
    312 Arizona +3

    my numbers

    New England Patriots... 23.9 Denver Broncos... 23.1... 47 -0.8 0.8 1/24/2016 (Home)
    Arizona Cardinals... 23.4 Carolina Panthers.. 25.4 ... 48.8 2 -2 1/24/2016 (Home)
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    adding another unit to 312 Denver +3

    Over 20.5 Denver team total
  • choons81choons81 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    ebemiss wrote: »
    adding another unit to 312 Denver +3

    Over 20.5 Denver team total

    Go Broncos :drinking::drinking::drinking::drinking:
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    2/7

    102 Denver +6 -115 (BM)

    my numbers

    Carolina Panthers 23.6 Denver Broncos 20.6 44.2 -3 3 02/07/2016 *NEUTRAL*
  • jets96jets96 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    love it , many reasons why i took denver also, line value alone is silly, that being said normally just pick who wins and you will be ok...Peyton has been to the big show 4 times , Peyton is TOP 5 ALL TIME in the 4th q , most comebacks, game winning drives and td -int ...the other kid is having a great year but if this game is close ,ill take peyton any day of the week....
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Good luck with the play. Play based on line value and their defense with the hope that Manning doesn't turn it over. Not counting on him for anything other than that. They should be able to make Newton uncomfortable and as long as they limit his running when the pocket collapses I believe they will force him into some mistakes.

    Manning looked ok when they spread the field and let him read quick early read throws. He looked like crap when they tried to run Kubiak's play action stuff. He's slow and by the time he turns back around the rush was on him. Osweiler is much better suited to run that stuff moving forward. Although I get why they are using Manning right now.

    If they play close to the vest and try to grind out possessions I think they'll have success. If they have to chase 2 scores, it's not good.

    The defense, if everyone plays and is healthy enough, is the main reason for the play. Not as confident in them as I was vs. NE but at this point the line is too much in my opinion.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    As long as Manning can throw pass 20 yards maybe Denver can win. He did have a couple of nice throws in the NE game but also a couple of ducks. To many times in the red zone against a defense that's not at all like Carolina. Look at the play by play at the two TD's by Denver. One was dink and dunk and YAC yards and the other was a short field. 17-32 for 145 yards and a 5.5 avg isn't going to get it done.

    Denver hasn't faced a QB like this kid and yes there defense is very good but this Kid dots the eye IMO as sad as it may seem Manning goes out a loser. Tough number I'll say that didn't think it would get passed a field goal. Good luck I prefer Super Bowl Props
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    Game projections for Super Bowl using regular season stats. Below them is Manning's last 2 game averages since he came back from the injury. You'll see it's much less then the regular season projections. Looks like they split the difference on the yardage/attempts props.

    Both teams average around 66 plays offense and defense per game.


    [HTML]| | total | Rush Att | rush yds | RUN TD | Pass Comp | Pass Att | Pass yds | PASS TD | Pass Int |
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    | Carolina Panthers | 359.2 | 29.2 | 129.2 | 1.2 | 19.9 | 33.2 | 230 | 2.2 | 0.8 |
    | Denver Broncos | 346.9 | 24.2 | 98.7 | 1.1 | 22.7 | 37.5 | 248.2 | 1.8 | 1.5 |[/HTML]


    Manning per game avg 2 playoff games

    19 for 34.5 199 yds 1 TD 0 INT

    The passing props for Carolina look close to season averages.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    A couple RB props I like.

    I like both of these over at plus money. found them at heritage sports.

    247 CJ.Anderson receiving yards O 14½ +104
    251 R.Hillman receiving yards O 9½ +122

    Carolina's defense led the NFL is RB receiving targets with 9.5 per game. They also give up, on average, about 50 yds a game to RB's receiving for the season.

    Last week they allowed 9 receptions for 60+ yds to Arizona's RB. In the divisional game they gave up multiple catches to multiple backs. With Manning's short passing game I think these may have some value.

    With both at plus money I think they are worth a shot if they are going to split time. If you think Hillman will play more his receptions of 1.5 is plus money on the over as well.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    Played Carolina team total under 24.5
  • Gordon GekkoGordon Gekko Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    Good luck sir!
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