Betting Talk

TommyL's 2016 Soccer Plays

13

Comments

  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    Cristiano Ronaldo no goals scored (+120) 1 unit to win 1.2 units
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    These coaches and their let's make 8-10 changes for the last game when we still need a result is really pissing me off. Though it's worked out nicely for Colombia's draw, wasn't really expecting to lose USA not win group. At least didn't lose Mexico too.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    durito wrote: »
    These coaches and their let's make 8-10 changes for the last game when we still need a result is really pissing me off. Though it's worked out nicely for Colombia's draw, wasn't really expecting to lose USA not win group. At least didn't lose Mexico too.

    Seriously. It's one thing if you've already locked up your group, but isn't there a little bit of an incentive to get a result if it means avoiding Argentina or Brazil (well, before Brazil showed how little heart this team actually had)? As much as it sucks for betting, it also kills my DFS lineups since it's been so hard to project who will actually play this week.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    Peru to win Copa America (+7000) .15 units to win 10.5 units
    Ukraine HT/FT (+190) 1 unit to win 1.9 units
    Sweden/Italy over 2 (-117) 1.17 units to win 1 unit
    Spain wins Group D (-220) 2.2 units to win 1 unit
    Austria +.5 Portugal (+119) 1 unit to win 1.19 units
    Mexico E, -.5 Chile (+124) 1.5 units to win 1.86 units
    Albania/Romania under 2.5 (-110) 2.2 units to win 2 units
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    Damn toni +7000? I'm sitting on +5000 pre tourney thinking I'm in good with pinny at 2500 yesterday, but it's back to +4000 there
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    USA wins Copa America (+900) 1 unit to win 9 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    Clint Dempsey - Top Goalscorer (+500) .5 units to win 2.5 units
    James Rodriguez - Top Goalscorer (+1400) .4 units to win 5.6 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    Venezuela to reach Final (+1900) .3 units to win 5.7 units
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    TommyL wrote: »
    USA wins Copa America (+900) 1 unit to win 9 units

    Funny this opened at pinny at +500/-700 a couple of months ago. I forget if we talked about the no. I thought it was fantastic but didn't have the funds too tie up for a few months.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    TommyL wrote: »
    James Rodriguez - Top Goalscorer (+1400) .4 units to win 5.6 units

    How about that post? Off the right foot too. The one they say he can't do shit with.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    durito wrote: »
    Funny this opened at pinny at +500/-700 a couple of months ago. I forget if we talked about the no. I thought it was fantastic but didn't have the funds too tie up for a few months.

    You did mention to me at some point that you played it. That opener was such a horrible number. I figure that if either Venezuela or the US can hold Argentina for 90 minutes, the US future is a pretty good bet with the coin flip of PKs (then again, I think that including Peru last night, I've lost about 8 PKs in a row on the team that I wanted to win). It's just funny that the US opened that low, and now that they're in the semis, their odds are that much better (or even worse Peru being 50-1 coming into the tourney, advancing out of their group which wasn't expected, then showing up at 70-1). Crazy stuff.

    As for James, I was hoping for one last night and thought we had it, but I still feel ok between the semi and either the 3rd place game or the final. But Messi could blow that all up tonight (though I hope not).
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    Argentina/Venezuela under 3 (-137) 1.37 units to win 1 unit
    Argentina under 1.5 (+195) 1 unit to win 1.95 units
    Venezuela HT/FT (+2900) .2 units to win 5.8 units
    Sergio Aguero no goals scored (+115) 1 unit to win 1.15 units
    Mexico E Chile (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited June 2016
    Got a lot on the line with Mexico tonight, but absolutely love this spot for them.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited June 2016
    Current to advance line -1100/871 implies argentina wins a shootout 65% of the time. Seems way too high. threw a little on +871
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Updated Result: -12.08 units (ROI: -9.41%)

    Back from my summer vacations and spent a good chunk of the weekend capping the Olympics. I'll be putting my Olympic stuff up today.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited August 2016
    Thx dude!
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Olympic Women's Soccer Plays

    Sweden -2 South Africa (+101) 1.5 units to win 1.515 units
    Australia E Canada (-138) 1.38 units to win 1 unit
    Australia/Canada over 2, 2.5 (-114) 1.14 units to win 1 unit
    China +1 Brazil (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
    China -.5 Brazil (+777) .5 units to win 3.885 units
    France -1.5, -2 Colombia (-161) 2.415 units to win 1.5 units

    USA wins Gold Medal (+167) 2 units to win 3.34 units
    Brazil doesn't win Group E (-105) 2.1 units to win 2 units
    Germany doesn't win Group F (+162) 1 unit to win 1.62 units
    Australia wins Group F (+775) .3 units to win 2.325 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    One more women's...

    Germany -5.5 Zimbabwe (-144) 1.44 units to win 1 unit

    Really was looking to fade Germany in general in this tourney, however Zimbabwe is really, really bad.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Olympic Men's Plays

    Iraq +.5 Denmark (-132) 1.32 units to win 1 unit
    Honduras -.5 Algeria (+223) 1 unit to win 2.23 units
    Mexico -.5 Germany (+240) 1 unit to win 2.4 units
    Argentina/Portugal over 2 (-124) 1.24 units to win 1 unit
    Argentina/Portugal over 2.5 (+150) .5 units to win .75 units
    Colombia -.5 Sweden (-137) 1.37 units to win 1 unit
    Japan E Nigeria (-111) 2.775 units to win 2.5 units

    Nigeria doesn't win Group B (-285) 2.85 units to win 1 unit
    Germany doesn't win Group C (+168) 1 unit to win 1.68 units
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited August 2016
    TommyL wrote: »
    Olympic Women's Soccer Plays

    Sweden -2 South Africa (+101) 1.5 units to win 1.515 units
    Australia E Canada (-138) 1.38 units to win 1 unit
    Australia/Canada over 2, 2.5 (-114) 1.14 units to win 1 unit
    China +1 Brazil (+130) 1 unit to win 1.3 units
    China -.5 Brazil (+777) .5 units to win 3.885 units
    France -1.5, -2 Colombia (-161) 2.415 units to win 1.5 units

    USA wins Gold Medal (+167) 2 units to win 3.34 units
    Brazil doesn't win Group E (-105) 2.1 units to win 2 units
    Germany doesn't win Group F (+162) 1 unit to win 1.62 units
    Australia wins Group F (+775) .3 units to win 2.325 units

    Don't know enough about every team to comment on each bet but definitely agree with several of your general thoughts on whom to look to fade and back. Australia should be solid (been watching the two defenders that play for Orlando in NWSL and was impressed). You know I was all about fading Brazil in the WC and China seems to be returning to respectability. You also know I'm pro-France. Sucks for both teams that they got drawn into the US group.

    I don't have much of an opinion on them so just curious, why are you down on Germany?

    Not really paying attention to the men. GL.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Goats wrote: »
    I don't have much of an opinion on them so just curious, why are you down on Germany?

    Some key turnover in the past year (missing Angerer and Sasic, who were both huge last summer), and everyone seems to be a little too excited about them running it up on some questionable competition (Turkey, Croatia, and Ghana) in the run-up to this tourney. It's not that I don't think they're good or anything, but I can't believe that they're as clearly the 2nd choice as they are (ie they're at +350 to win it and the 3rd choice is back at +675). Instead, I'd put them right there alongside Brazil and France.

    As for the men, you're not missing too much. Due to the expanded Euro and the Copa America this summer, clubs were able to negotiate making the release of players this summer for the Olympics voluntary (even for the U23 guys). So all kinds of guys are missing that should be there, and it's a very watered down field.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited August 2016
    TommyL wrote: »

    Now expected to arrive in Manaus around 2pm et, 7 hours before kick-off.

    Some interesting info here... https://twitter.com/nnekaikem1
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Another for today...

    Brazil under 3 (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Women's plays for Saturday...

    Canada -3, -3.5 Zimbabwe (-178) 1.78 units to win 1 unit
    USA E, -.5 France (+109) 1.635 units to win 1.5 units
    China -1 South Africa (+103) 2 units to win 2.06 units
    New Zealand -.5 Columbia (+112) 1 unit to win 1.12 units
    Sweden +.5 Brazil (+122) 1 unit to win 1.22 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Going against the steam, starts in 5 minutes...

    South Africa +2.5, 3 Brazil (-115) 1.15 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Men's soccer for today...

    Mexico/Fiji under 7 (+142) 1.5 units to win 2.13 units
    Portugal under 2 (-108) 1.08 units to win 1 unit
    Algeria +1.5 Argentina (-128) 1.28 units to win 1 unit
    Algeria -.5 Argentina (+874) .5 units to win 4.37 units
    Sweden E Nigeria (+114) 1.5 units to win 1.71 units
    Colombia/Japan under 3 (-123) 1.23 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Women's for tomorrow...

    Zimbabwe/Australia over 4.5 (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
    Canada/Germany under 2.5, 3 (-102) 1.02 units to win 1 unit
    Sweden/China under 2, 2.5 (+100) 2 units to win 2 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited August 2016
    Men's for Wednesday...

    Honduras/Argentina over 2.5 (-120) 1.8 units to win 1.5 units
    Mexico -.5 South Korea (+136) 1 unit to win 1.36 units
    Colombia -.5 Nigeria (-167) 2.505 units to win 1.5 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited September 2016
    Updated Result: -15.975 units (ROI: -8.8%)
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