Betting Talk

2016 Presidential Election & Primaries

TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
edited June 2017 in Sports Betting
Wanted to start up some discussion on the election. However, this isn't a thread to give your political views, argue about the performance of current or past presidents, etc. Let's keep this to things related to polls, gambling, projections, etc. If we get into personal attacks (for whatever reason, some have trouble talking politics without getting personal), this thread will be locked.

Here are a few good links to start...

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-demographics-will-shape-the-2016-election/

(and my personal favorite that I've read recently)...

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-future-of-polling-may-depend-on-donald-trumps-fate/
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Comments

  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited December 2015
    I really started this because I wanted to get a feel for is the price on Trump to win the Republican nomination is correct today. I've been thinking of fading him for months, and of course the price keeps getting better as his campaign continues to gain traction. Today, 5Dimes has him at +290 to win the nomination, and -410 to not win it (just a $100 limit, but there are other places to play it as well, just using 5D in this instance). Here are a couple links about Trump that I read today...

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/big-phony-and-loser-nate-silver-cant-even-see-donald-trump-is-a-winner-what-a-joke/

    http://www.cnn.com/2015/12/04/politics/donald-trump-poll-cnn-orc-national/index.html

    What are the thoughts here? Those new numbers are tough to ignore, and are keeping me away from fading him at this time. Does he really have a chance here, or will those poll numbers inevitably drop?
  • BetThemDogsBetThemDogs Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    1) front runner at this stage usually does not get the nomination

    2) the closer to the election the more the old guard GOP will try their damnedest to shoot down The Donald, as they believe he can't possibly win the general election. And, they are most likely right, as can't see him stealing many black or hispanic votes. And, most independents will view him as too radical.

    I would think in a few months you'd get better odds on the NO.
  • kanekane Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    1) front runner at this stage usually does not get the nomination

    2) the closer to the election the more the old guard GOP will try their damnedest to shoot down The Donald, as they believe he can't possibly win [/B]the general election. And, they are most likely right, as can't see him stealing many black or hispanic votes. And, most independents will view him as too radical.

    I would think in a few months you'd get better odds on the NO.

    I agree 100%, the GOP knows Trump can't win a general election. Just my opinion, but I think Rubio is the only one among the front runners who has a chance against Hillary. If I was betting this stuff, I would find the best number I could on Rubio to win the primary, and I would have no qualms about fading Trump
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    538 nate is the best fade I have ever seen, he says something the opposite happens.
  • Casper WareCasper Ware Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    nobody likes Hillary, ask people if there going to vote for Hillary, very few will admit it.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited December 2015
    538 nate is the best fade I have ever seen, he says something the opposite happens.

    Did you follow the 2012 election, or the 2008 election for that matter? (I can only assume it's a "no", based on your response)

    He made me some $ in 2016 with his projections.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited December 2015
    nobody likes Hillary, ask people if there going to vote for Hillary, very few will admit it.

    Is there any basis of fact, any links, or anything to support this other than your opinion?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION - PRESIDENT ELECTED
    HILLARY CLINTON Odds
    -163

    5k USD NO BUY
    JEB BUSH
    +1725

    DONALD TRUMP
    +977

    MARCO RUBIO
    +370

    BERNIE SANDERS
    +2935

    CARLY FIORINA
    +15000

    BEN CARSON
    +4500

    JOHN KASICH
    +6000

    CHRIS CHRISTIE
    +1944

    RAND PAUL
    +10000

    TED CRUZ
    +954

    Bookmaker 5k market
    2016 US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION-WINNING PARTY
    REPUBLICANS Odds
    +120

    5k USD NO BUY
    DEMOCRATS
    -160

    ANY OTHER PARTY
    +9000
    4:00 PM
    WILL DONALD TRUMP BE THE NEXT US PRESIDENT ?
    YES Odds
    +900

    1k USD No Buy
    NO
    -2200

    4:00 PM
    WILL DONALD TRUMP BE THE REPUBLICAN NOMINEE ?
    YES Odds
    +354

    1k USD No Buy
    NO
    -522
  • lumpy19lumpy19 Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    538 nate is the best fade I have ever seen, he says something the opposite happens.

    So you're saying you lost money in 2008 and 2012? He was ahead of everyone in both elections
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Really? He picked every state correctly during the last election
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    except every democratic and if the RED TEAM doesn't turn things around, Independents will as well.
    The Terrorist activity is helping Hilary
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    TommyL wrote: »
    I really started this because I wanted to get a feel for is the price on Trump to win the Republican nomination is correct today. I've been thinking of fading him for months, and of course the price keeps getting better as his campaign continues to gain traction.

    I really don't like to bet against speed horses(DT). Mainly now because the overall conditions are murky. Wait'in and see'in in regards to homeland security and any surprise vetting info.

    As far a Railbird's Hillary slam...........he's gotta point. According to the latest Gallup Poll that I looked at her favorabilty rating is atta all time low for her @41%.

    http://www.gallup.com/poll/185324/hillary-clinton-favorable-rating-one-worst.aspx
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    No chance. Bet as much as you can
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Trump has 0 chance.

    It's going to be Hillary vs Rubio

    Hillary wins...
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Coops wrote: »
    Trump has 0 chance.

    It's going to be Hillary vs Rubio

    Hillary wins...

    Think your correct. I bet Hillary some time ago at -110 for Pres. & -150 to get nomination.
    Never know
  • CoopsCoops Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Dave Mason wrote: »
    Think your correct. I bet Hillary some time ago at -110 for Pres. & -150 to get nomination.
    Never know

    I like a prop that Hillary doesn't win second term in 2020, but doubt it exists... Republican will win election in 2020.
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    You're probably correct but the way shit is going down, who knows
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Not sure why Jeb is roughly the same as Trump, I think you need at least another cycle before a Bush could be elected realistically.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2016
    Anyone have thoughts after another 6 weeks?

    The 5Dimes line on Hillary to win Iowa (-210) seems a little short based on Silver's current numbers (83% using his full forecast, or 70% using only polls), especially since it beats BM's no-vig line of -213 (currently -260/+195 with vig). Still only a $100 limit though (at least for me).

    Trump obviously continues to gain steam, down to +163 at BM to get the Republican nod (and -180 on the "no" at 5D). Some interesting stuff from Silver this afternoon (link below) on the fact that the establishment of the Republican party seems to be even more anti-Cruz than anti-Trump. If you had told me 4-6 months ago that I'd be able to get Trump at -180 at some point to not get the nod, I would have been giddy. But with the way things keep trending, I'm passing as it's becoming a real possibility that Trump will be on the ballot in November.

    http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/one-big-reason-to-be-less-skeptical-of-trump/
  • CoolsCools Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    I've only watched one debate and am about as apolitical as they come, but can you guys tell me what the problem with Christie is? And no, I'm don't only like him because of his stance on legalized gambling.

    He seems have both democratic and republican views on how to handle things, which from my bipartisan vantage point, seems to be what this country desperately needs. I liked his demeanor and assertiveness. He's a guy I could flip on the radio, listen to a speech and really believe it doesn't feel forced or scripted.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Cools wrote: »
    I've only watched one debate and am about as apolitical as they come, but can you guys tell me what the problem with Christie is? And no, I'm don't only like him because of his stance on legalized gambling.

    He seems have both democratic and republican views on how to handle things, which from my bipartisan vantage point, seems to be what this country desperately needs. I liked his demeanor and assertiveness. He's a guy I could flip on the radio, listen to a speech and really believe it doesn't feel forced or scripted.

    Cools, he hadda evolve and survive that way being a Red Guy in a Blue state. I have no problem with him either. The party has a problem with his occasional fabrication of the truth. Fact-checkers have verified this.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Bernie and Donald are killing it here right now. Couple polls this week showing Sanders well ahead of Hillary.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2016
    cpech56 wrote: »
    Bernie and Donald are killing it here right now. Couple polls this week showing Sanders well ahead of Hillary.

    From what I see here, it really depends on how you interpret the data. If you're looking at all eligible voters, then you're correct. If you're looking at those that actually voted in the last caucus, then Hillary is still up and Trump/Cruz are neck and neck...

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html
  • dirty49dirty49 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    TommyL wrote: »
    From what I see here, it really depends on how you interpret the data. If you're looking at all eligible voters, then you're correct. If you're looking at those that actually voted in the last caucus, then Hillary is still up and Trump/Cruz are neck and neck...

    http://www.cnn.com/2016/01/21/politics/iowa-poll-hillary-clinton-bernie-sanders-donald-trump-ted-cruz/index.html

    This is what i have seen. Southeast Iowa has a boatload of Cruz support. Most think Trump is an idiot. Fairly conservative state. Take Cruz. Hillary seems to be popular in the iowa city area. Those would be my best guess on who takes Iowa.
  • TortugaTortuga Moderator
    edited January 2016
    It still seems to me like Trump doesn't actually have an chance, but yet here he is still in the lead.
  • kcburghkcburgh Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    If Sanders wins Iowa can we expect to see Hillary to win the nomination down to -350..best I see now is -550.
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    THE DONALD now -200 to win the nomination
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2016
    Dave Mason wrote: »
    THE DONALD now -200 to win the nomination

    You sure you're not looking at the Iowa Cascus odds? He's -125 to win the nomination at 5D and +118 at BM.
  • Dave MasonDave Mason Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    I just doubled checked at BOVADA . -200
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Ted Cruz is toast here in Iowa and Sanders still holding strong as well as Donald. Hillary putting in lots of time here last 3 days and will continue to be here daily until next Monday.
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