Betting Talk

Random thoughts and stuff

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  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    I guess I just don't get this "new wave" managing.
    Situation: Bottom 5 cubs 1-0. 8th hitter leadoff double. Roberts yanks Hill(79pc,8ks) for NY reject Granderson(lefty vs Lester). Regardless of outcome, is this a sane move?

    Conventional thinking now is 'you have a deep bullpen and enough off days that you won't tax it, use it, it's better than letting almost any starter go through the order for the third time'.Factor in that Hill is usually done after 6 anyway and yeah, it's sane.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I guess Dave Roberts has taken over where Capt. Hook(SA) left off. He's led the league in pitchers used. Some might consider that over managing. Rich Hill had every right last night to vent in the dugout after being yanked. He was also pulled after pitching 7 perfect innings this season. A chance for baseball history. How about the kid Stripling that was also pulled after 7 no hit innings this season. This crap will fly as long as the Dodgers continue to win. Down deep there will always be resentment.
  • zibdibblezibdibble Junior Member
    edited October 2017
    You don't find a correlation between properly resting pitchers and consistently winning? Stripling was last year but I get your point. Just seems like you are saying pulling guys early is excused because they are winning and throwing out the idea that the winning can be a product (albeit it small one) of keeping guys healthy.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I think many modern day athletes are egotistical, self centered guys that are driven more by personal goals than ever before. Resting players is essential for obvious reasons. Over managing might have some power moves behind it?

    I believe in keeping players healthy, both physically and motivated mentally. 100 pitch count is not a red line for all pitchers. + or -.
  • zibdibblezibdibble Junior Member
    edited October 2017
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    I don't know, I know the game has changed dramatically over the years but as a manager I could never take out a pitcher who has a NoNo going. I would ask him and of course 99.9% would say I'm okay but would ask.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    zibdibble wrote: »

    But this wasn't their decision to make. It was Stripling's.

    Only Stripling could say what was right for him -- to safeguard his financial future or to pursue a childhood dream.

    It's his career. It's his life.

    "Now, I hate to break the news to you, but most players would choose money over on-field glory. Baseball isn't a game for them. It's a profession. Considering what Stripling had to endure over the last two years to come back from elbow surgery, I would be surprised if he had a problem with being taken out. And if he didn't have a problem, this is a non-issue."....source Dylan Hernandez from the link provided.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    To put things in modern athlete perspective:

    If Rich Hill's Dodgers win the World Series his monetary share would be apprx 350K.

    If Rich Hill gets the opportunity and throws a perfecto, what does that do for his lifetime earnings?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Lets see how longa leash Roberts gives to his 'doho' Darvish.
  • zibdibblezibdibble Junior Member
    edited October 2017
    While we are on the topic, Hinch definitely pulled McCullers too quickly.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Agree Zib.

    Roberts allows Darvish to bat w/based loaded. He's a fkg crapshooter. Sparky just wiggled in the coffin.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Phil Mickelson is stepping up to the plate big time. Charity auction with the highest bidder getting to play 18 holes with Lefty and have lunch with him @ his home course in Rancho Santa Fe. The first bid was 100k and the next in 5k increments. No the proceeds DO NOT got to the Clinton Foundation:laugh:, but to Operation Healing Forces. For young military guys with various injuries from the terror wars.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited October 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Phil Mickelson is stepping up to the plate big time. Charity auction with the highest bidder getting to play 18 holes with Lefty and have lunch with him @ his home course in Rancho Santa Fe. The first bid was 100k and the next in 5k increments. No the proceeds DO NOT got to the Clinton Foundation:laugh:, but to Operation Healing Forces. For young military guys with various injuries from the terror wars.

    Could be +EV if you can work in some talk about the stock market.

    Sorry, too soon?

    (Sounds like a post my dad would have made, I've always liked Phil but he can't stand him)
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Tommy,
    I didn't like him either for stiffing the sportsbook clerks after winning a BIG future on Baltimore to win the SBowl in 2000. But apparently over the years someone musta buzzed his ears and he's been more than generous to all in the service industry. If the highest bidder is a scratch golfer or close to, you can count on Lefty to make some kinda gambling overture to him.

    I'm a fan of his but would also take off the rubber to bet against him at the right price.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Smoltz continues to be the best baseball color man around. Plenty of insight, especially pitching.

    No further comments on the Dodger managerial moves. It's obvious to the most casual observer.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Bunting with ur cleanup hitter. Brilliant strategy.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Roberts is terrible. There's regular season managers and big game managers and he's not one of them. I said when it happen and I'll say it again taking out Hill after the 4th inning after giving up 3 hits 1 run and had 7 k's leaving your bullpen with 15 outs to get was going to cost him win or lose that game. The guy is in so far over his head.
  • kdogkdog Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Smoltz continues to be the best baseball color man around. Plenty of insight, especially pitching.

    No further comments on the Dodger managerial moves. It's obvious to the most casual observer.

    I follow Mitchel Lichtman, a guy who knows a lot about baseball analytics on Twitter. He thinks Smoltz has no idea what he's talking about which seems strange to me considering the career he had. Lichtman does seem to have data to back up his claims though. I can't link to him but he's an interesting follow as long as you don't mind Trump hatred mixed in with baseball.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Sure Kdog, I'll google him up. Smoltz might be an a-hole to his neighbors but I can't think of a more informed color analyst. Let me check this Lichtman out. thanks
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Sure Kdog, I'll google him up. Smoltz might be an a-hole to his neighbors but I can't think of a more informed color analyst. Let me check this Lichtman out. thanks

    I know one thing for certain I've dealt with Smoltz on many occasions and watch him deal with the public and he's a class act as far as I'm concerned. Scratch Golfer and loves to shoot craps. As for the other stuff IDK.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Among other petty complaints,

    "In a gated community in suburban Atlanta, baseball pitcher John Smoltz is battling over a neighbor's towering new garage that Mr. Smoltz and his wife claim casts shadows on his pool." source WSJ.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    So that makes him an A-Hole because some guy wants to build a tall garage and he needs a tall garage for what? My neighbor had a tree hanging over my yard and when the leaves would fall I had a helluva job getting them out of my pool. They would clog my navigator and made a mess. (I have no trees in my yard) So I asked her to please cut in down or at least cut it to where the leaves fall in your yard. After a while nothing happen so I told her anymore leaves in my pool I'll cut the tree from the top of my wall in half. So I'm A-Hold
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Anything that hangs on your property you have a right to cut it. So cut the fukg thing if she doesnt respond. Not an a-hole but use some common sense!
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Anything that hangs on your property you have a right to cut it. So cut the fukg thing if she doesnt respond. Not an a-hole but use some common sense!

    She fixed it and now gives me the stink eye lol
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Atleast you communicated with her. This area along with SoCal is nothing like the east coast. Back there you knew your neighbor and looked out for each other. Yeah, you have petty squabbles but basically its friendly. Here? I have a neighboring family that act like recluses. They avoid the entire complex. No hi, no wave, stuck up folks with kids. I've had mail lost that I presume was given to them by a rookie mailman(he claimed delivery). I'm sure they shitcanned it. They might need us some day and they will get my best Sgt Schultz, "I saw nothing".
  • paddyboy111paddyboy111 Senior Member
    edited October 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Anything that hangs on your property you have a right to cut it. So cut the fukg thing if she doesnt respond. Not an a-hole but use some common sense!

    FYI If a neighbor's tree falls onto your yard you are responsible for damages, removal costs, etc., unless they were negligient, which they probably weren't.

    Also you can cut the tree that overhangs but sometimes this is very difficult to do without trespassing if they are uncooperative.

    We had a problem recently when our city neighbor cut down his tree exposing us and our neighbors to the ugly building and barbed wire behind our homes. Although most of the tree was in our yards, he had sole jurisdiction.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Troubling signs for Aaron Judge. Have the opposing pitchers caught up to him? He's looking more and more likea Dave Kingman or a BB Balboni.

    So I guess now Bellinger is the next left handed Dave Kingman because of a bad series.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    So I guess now Bellinger is the next left handed Dave Kingman because of a bad series.

    Now you're instigating. Wtf did that come from? To Finch and Strom's credit they found a way to get him out. Hooks and more hooks low and in.

    Aaron Judge? I'm still not sold on him yet as a superstar. Sliders and cutters turn many can't miss guys into mediocre players.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited November 2017
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Now you're instigating. Wtf did that come from? To Finch and Strom's credit they found a way to get him out. Hooks and more hooks low and in.

    Aaron Judge? I'm still not sold on him yet as a superstar. Sliders and cutters turn many can't miss guys into mediocre players.

    lol lighten up, have a good day
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited November 2017
    95% of rookies have a 3 year pattern to start their career, or some variation to it. Some may start with a quick cup of coffee where they struggle(Trout) but starting from their first full time job in the majors, most follow the same pattern. The media blows them up before the league has gotten a book on them. It usually goes like this. Rookie plays well in year 1, comes back year 2 and struggles, year 3 you find out if he is the year 1 player or the year 2 player. Can he make the adjustments to counteract what the league did against him? Sometimes year 1 and year 2 above happen in the same year. Perfect example of this is Brennan Bosch. When he came up in Detroit, he was on fire. Something wasn't right though. He was hitting over .400 vs lefties and .270 vs righties. For a lefty, that is just not sustainable. I watched him play a game in NY and he lit Sabathia up. CC started him with a first pitch fastball every at bat. A week later they played in Detroit. CC threw breaking balls to start off every at bat. 0-4. People were figuring out he was sitting first pitch fastball on lefties. He struggled the rest of the year, never again coming close to the numbers he put up. Same thing happened with Austin Jackson. Great first year, struggled the 2nd, the few years after that were a little better than year 2 but nothing close to year 1. That is usually the norm. Albert Pujols is the exception to the rule. Even Trout had issues to deal with. 2014, 2nd half of the season, teams found his hole and threw him a lot of high fastballs. He couldn't lay off, struggled the entire 2nd half of the season, K's were thru the roof. He doesn't hit them any better now, that's his hole, but he has learned to lay off them, not always, but much better now.

    Bellinger had a good year but outside his HR's, it hid a lot of issues with his approach. Similar to Trout's overall 2014 numbers hid his issues from most, it didn't hide them from Trout because he obviously made an effort to work on them. What was good for Bellinger was he had a playoff run to see his issue exposed. He didn't have to waste a year watching everyone pitch him the way Houston did. Houston's advanced scout did a great job finding his holes. That being said, he is only 21, wasn't expected to do what he did this year, it only sped up his timetable, but he still needs to figure out a way shrink his holes.

    Aaron Judge is a different case. I saw a breakdown of his numbers based on pitch speed. Over 93 he struggled all year, 85-93, he destroyed them, under 85, he struggled all year. You will see many guys struggle on one end or the other, either can't catch up to a good fastball or they cheat to catch up and give up hitting a changeup. I don't recall seeing many guys struggle on both ends. Because of his size, he needs to probably ignore the hard stuff, see the ball longer to hit the soft stuff, and use the short porch in right at Yankee stadium(not like he needs a short porch). How many great tall hitters have you ever seen? 6'5 is about the limit. Their arms are too long to bring them in on hard stuff inside. When you see a guy 6'7- 6'8, how many of those guys make it to the bigs much less hit for average and power. You get guys like Richie Sexson, who wasn't a bad player at all, but he was a .260 hitter who struck out a lot(and hit a lot of HR's). That's near the upside you will get with tall hitters like that once pitchers decide to throw them hard and in. If you are expecting Judge to hit for average and power, the odds are stacked against him. .329 pre-all star, .229 post all star, he may be sitting in the richie sexson .260 range going forward. He may also be an example of a guy who had year 1 and year 2 put into 1 year.
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