2015-2016 NFL thread
sosoangry
Senior Member
Wow, coming off my worst single day in football in memory.... :sad:
Saints +2
Chargers -3.5
Saints +2
Chargers -3.5
Comments
Chiefs -3
If you're keeping a record, you need to include units.
Also, please include juice around key numbers. KC should be graded at -3 -120.
Thanks.
When using Pinny, you should normalize to a 20c line by adding about 5c to their lines. So when they have -102, it's really -107 (so grading at -110 isn't really more than a few cents off). In most cases, unless the line is really shaded, just use the # from Pinny and don't worry about the juice.
Basically, just try to be conservative. When in doubt, use the worse line. It is understood that everyone should be doing better in their own betting via line shopping, reduced vig, etc.
Hope that helps clarify things.
(of course for baseball much different)
You need to show units because of the non -110 plays (i.e. KC -3 -120).
265 SF +5.5
270 Buff -1
275 SD +3.5
287 Sea +3.5 -123
Redskins +3
478 Tenn +3
480 Dallas -1
483 Bears +14.5
488 Lions +3
SF +7.5
Unlike my baseball season, which has been quite successful, it's been a horrible start to the football season. No excuses. Same goes for college football. I've made adjustments, hopefully I can climb out of this hole and turn profitable by season end.
Texans -5
Eagles -6.5
Titans Pk
Redskins +7
Rams +9
Raiders +4
Giants -7.5
Lions -3.5
Jets -7.5
Giants +3.5
I don't often write commentary on my picks, but must say Seattle is overrated. The line continues to be inflated thanks to history. Don't get me wrong, 49ers are not good, but frankly they're not as bad they played in September. I have this game at more/less pickem, or maybe Seattle -1 or perhaps -2, but NOT -6.5. The books are keeping the line tuned to the public and I'll take advantage.
Rams -6.5
Chiefs -3
Lions +1.5
Falcons -6
C'mon, +10? I had the game at Az -6 and was going to pass. But where will this line close, -11? -13? The once very good Ravens have quit?? I'm willing to chance it at no. I can't see this team on prime time & the only game on TV, laying an egg.
Meanwhile, I think Ariz has become a bit overrated, but look at their last 3 games. They lose SU and ATS to a not-great Rams team, despite benefiting from a +3 net turnover margin (!), and they lose SU and ATS to a not-great Steelers team despite benefiting from a +3 net turnover margin (!!). They do beat a not-great Lions team, but benefiting from a +6 (!!) net turnover margin.
If Arizona benefits from a +5 or greater turnover margin (which is huge!), I will lose. But incredibly they've lost SU and ATS two recent games despite benefiting from a +3 net turnover in each, which is hard to do. I don't see Flacco and Co. turning the ball over left and right. +10 is just too high.
Titans +7.5 -115
Both of these teams are awful, take the generous 3 and hook in a game that should be pick'em on any field.
Cowboys -1
Dolphins +6
Raiders -3
Giants +7 -115
Colts +4.5
Broncos -1