Long over due update to NFL record. After starting season at horrid 12-20 for -10.25 units, I finished rest of season at 30-26 and +1.35 units, for combined regular season record of 42-46 for -8.9 units. Needless to say, a very disappointing regular season, here's hoping post-season fares better.
Passing on Pitt/Denv game due to Big Ben ??? Bad enough Antonio out, but it could take just one good hit putting Ben on sidelines and that changes everything....
I thought it was worth mentioning what I think is a key angle for the Cards/Panthers game. Cards are 0-6 ATS this season if held under 100 yards rushing, and are 9-2 ATS if rush for 100+ yards, and in their last 10 games the Panthers have allowed only one opponent to rush for more than 80 yards (!), that being the NYG of all teams (rushed for 160 in game they lost 38-35). But again, Panthers have kept 9 out of last 10 opponents under 80 yards rushing, wow. Spells trouble for Cards.
Some may say that ANY team held to under 100 yards rushing is not going to do well, I understand that. But consider the following:
Road teams held to under 100 yards rushing this season went 40-91 SU and 54-74 ATS.
Road teams that rushed for 100+ yards this season went 81-50 SU and 80-47 ATS.
Home teams that rushed for 100+ yards this season went 103-40 SU and 87-52 ATS.
A few points re the above: 1) the stats show it's already hard enough playing on the road, but to also rush for less than 100 yards makes it that much more difficult to win much less cover, 2) away teams rushing for less than 100 yards were 30% SU and 42% ATS, and yet the Cards went 0-6 ATS when rushing for less than 100 yards, home or away... Yes, small sample size, but 0-6 ATS vs. 9-2 ATS for the Cards this season is quite a contrast and likely says much about their passing game needing the run game to work otherwise their entire offense is compromised, and 3) it's difficult to look past the fact that the Panthers have held 9 of their last 10 opponents to not just under 100 yards rushing but under 80 yards rushing -- a fact that aims right smack at the Cards achilles heal.
I'm hearing lots of people on radio saying this SB is looking very similar to two years ago with Denver in SB, fearing Denver heading for another blowout -- but it's not the same. People forget, that SB two years ago, the Broncos were favored to win it, Seattle was the underdog. Yet 2 years later and given Seahawks blew them out, people seem to think Seattle was the juggernaut and Broncos the weak dog in that SB -- again not true, Denver was expected to win. And note Manning averaged 340 yards passing per game then and 68% completions -- he's a shadow of that now.... Denver's D is better with this team than the last SB team, but not by huge margin, and meanwhile the offense is much worse than last SB Denver team. Then you have Carolina who has a D as good as Denver's and perhaps better, and a Carolina offense WAY better than current Denver offense. -4 is a gift, it should be -7. Note that NE defense is very good and they actually shut down Denver in 2nd half (which is why many say belichek should've kicked FG on that 4th down, because his D was dominating Denver/Manning in 2nd half), but Carolina D as good as NE D, even better, so I just don't see Denver scoring much (and let's be real, many of Manning's passes vs. NE were ugly moon shots -- and yet they were caught!!! not intercepted. I don't think Peyton gets away with that vs. Carolina). Is Denver's sack-happy D going to be able to get to Cam like they did Brady?? highly doubtful. Cam is WAY more mobile than led-foot Brady, and have to think Panthers have two weeks to draw up plan to answer blitz.
Comments
Falcons -2.5
Rams +9
Bucs +3
Giants -2
Bills +5.5
Jags -5 -115
Steelers +3.5
Seahawks -1
Rams +5
Falcons -1
Broncos -4
Eagles +8
Jets -8
Hou +1
Balt +6.5
SD -2.5
Cin -6.5
Buff -2
Phil +4
Car -5
Pitt -6.5
Vikings -6.5 -115
NYG -5.5
Bengals -10
Lions -1
49ers +3
Cards -6.5
Cin +2 -115
Long over due update to NFL record. After starting season at horrid 12-20 for -10.25 units, I finished rest of season at 30-26 and +1.35 units, for combined regular season record of 42-46 for -8.9 units. Needless to say, a very disappointing regular season, here's hoping post-season fares better.
Vikings +4
I have nothing re GB / Wash game, could go either way.
KC +4.5
GB +7
Car -1 -115
Passing on Pitt/Denv game due to Big Ben ??? Bad enough Antonio out, but it could take just one good hit putting Ben on sidelines and that changes everything....
Carolina -3
NE -3
Some may say that ANY team held to under 100 yards rushing is not going to do well, I understand that. But consider the following:
Road teams held to under 100 yards rushing this season went 40-91 SU and 54-74 ATS.
Road teams that rushed for 100+ yards this season went 81-50 SU and 80-47 ATS.
Home teams that rushed for 100+ yards this season went 103-40 SU and 87-52 ATS.
A few points re the above: 1) the stats show it's already hard enough playing on the road, but to also rush for less than 100 yards makes it that much more difficult to win much less cover, 2) away teams rushing for less than 100 yards were 30% SU and 42% ATS, and yet the Cards went 0-6 ATS when rushing for less than 100 yards, home or away... Yes, small sample size, but 0-6 ATS vs. 9-2 ATS for the Cards this season is quite a contrast and likely says much about their passing game needing the run game to work otherwise their entire offense is compromised, and 3) it's difficult to look past the fact that the Panthers have held 9 of their last 10 opponents to not just under 100 yards rushing but under 80 yards rushing -- a fact that aims right smack at the Cards achilles heal.
SB pick: Panthers -4
Reasons to come....
I'll call it 28-20 Panthers