Betting Talk

2015-2016 NFL thread

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  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    Lions -2
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    Cowboys Pk
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited November 2015
    Texans -3
    Falcons -2.5
    Rams +9
    Bucs +3
    Giants -2
    Bills +5.5
    Jags -5 -115
    Steelers +3.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Bills -3
    Seahawks -1
    Rams +5
    Falcons -1
    Broncos -4
    Eagles +8
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Cowboys +2
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Bucs -5
    Jets -8
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Atl +2.5
    Hou +1
    Balt +6.5
    SD -2.5
    Cin -6.5
    Buff -2
    Phil +4
    Car -5
    Pitt -6.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Raiders -6
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Cards -5.5
    Vikings -6.5 -115
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited December 2015
    Denver -4
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Vikings +3
    NYG -5.5
    Bengals -10
    Lions -1
    49ers +3
    Cards -6.5
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    KC -3
    Cin +2 -115

    Long over due update to NFL record. After starting season at horrid 12-20 for -10.25 units, I finished rest of season at 30-26 and +1.35 units, for combined regular season record of 42-46 for -8.9 units. Needless to say, a very disappointing regular season, here's hoping post-season fares better.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    For tomorrow:

    Vikings +4

    I have nothing re GB / Wash game, could go either way.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    2-0-1, +2 units in playoffs

    KC +4.5
    GB +7
    Car -1 -115

    Passing on Pitt/Denv game due to Big Ben ??? Bad enough Antonio out, but it could take just one good hit putting Ben on sidelines and that changes everything....
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Post-season record: 4-1-1, +2.9 units

    Carolina -3
    NE -3
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    I thought it was worth mentioning what I think is a key angle for the Cards/Panthers game. Cards are 0-6 ATS this season if held under 100 yards rushing, and are 9-2 ATS if rush for 100+ yards, and in their last 10 games the Panthers have allowed only one opponent to rush for more than 80 yards (!), that being the NYG of all teams (rushed for 160 in game they lost 38-35). But again, Panthers have kept 9 out of last 10 opponents under 80 yards rushing, wow. Spells trouble for Cards.

    Some may say that ANY team held to under 100 yards rushing is not going to do well, I understand that. But consider the following:

    Road teams held to under 100 yards rushing this season went 40-91 SU and 54-74 ATS.
    Road teams that rushed for 100+ yards this season went 81-50 SU and 80-47 ATS.
    Home teams that rushed for 100+ yards this season went 103-40 SU and 87-52 ATS.

    A few points re the above: 1) the stats show it's already hard enough playing on the road, but to also rush for less than 100 yards makes it that much more difficult to win much less cover, 2) away teams rushing for less than 100 yards were 30% SU and 42% ATS, and yet the Cards went 0-6 ATS when rushing for less than 100 yards, home or away... Yes, small sample size, but 0-6 ATS vs. 9-2 ATS for the Cards this season is quite a contrast and likely says much about their passing game needing the run game to work otherwise their entire offense is compromised, and 3) it's difficult to look past the fact that the Panthers have held 9 of their last 10 opponents to not just under 100 yards rushing but under 80 yards rushing -- a fact that aims right smack at the Cards achilles heal.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    Post-season record: 5-2-1, +2.8 units

    SB pick: Panthers -4

    Reasons to come....
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited January 2016
    I'm hearing lots of people on radio saying this SB is looking very similar to two years ago with Denver in SB, fearing Denver heading for another blowout -- but it's not the same. People forget, that SB two years ago, the Broncos were favored to win it, Seattle was the underdog. Yet 2 years later and given Seahawks blew them out, people seem to think Seattle was the juggernaut and Broncos the weak dog in that SB -- again not true, Denver was expected to win. And note Manning averaged 340 yards passing per game then and 68% completions -- he's a shadow of that now.... Denver's D is better with this team than the last SB team, but not by huge margin, and meanwhile the offense is much worse than last SB Denver team. Then you have Carolina who has a D as good as Denver's and perhaps better, and a Carolina offense WAY better than current Denver offense. -4 is a gift, it should be -7. Note that NE defense is very good and they actually shut down Denver in 2nd half (which is why many say belichek should've kicked FG on that 4th down, because his D was dominating Denver/Manning in 2nd half), but Carolina D as good as NE D, even better, so I just don't see Denver scoring much (and let's be real, many of Manning's passes vs. NE were ugly moon shots -- and yet they were caught!!! not intercepted. I don't think Peyton gets away with that vs. Carolina). Is Denver's sack-happy D going to be able to get to Cam like they did Brady?? highly doubtful. Cam is WAY more mobile than led-foot Brady, and have to think Panthers have two weeks to draw up plan to answer blitz.
  • sosoangrysosoangry Senior Member
    edited February 2016
    I don't have much to add to my prior comments, glad I'm on Panthers -4 as I knew that line would head higher, currently -5.5

    I'll call it 28-20 Panthers
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