107 Panthers +2
I have no idea what's going on with the line here. Even with Romo back, it's not clear that Dallas has much to play for. I've watched several Panther games, and they seem more solid than anyone is giving them credit for. Solid defense, no turnovers, and 35 running plays in a game will win almost every single time.
Carolina seems like a very square dog here with the disparity in record, but that lack of respect should make them even more motivated. It almost seems like the market keeps expecting them to lose. The bottom line is that the line is rating the Panthers as 1 point better than the Cowboys on a neutral field, and that just isn't accurate.
260 Redskins +2 1/2
Washington has been a schizophrenic team this year as far as home/road dichotomy. It's a one game season for them, and have to like their chances against a Giant team that is nothing special. The Redskin team that destroyed New Orleans on this field two weeks ago should show up here.
270 49ers 10 1/2
More of a system play than anything else. No team should ever be a double digit home dog. San Fran has just enough offensive firepower to come in under the wire.
372 Chargers +4
More of a bet against the Broncos than a bet on the Chargers. It's just too big of a flat spot for Denver, off a dramatic overtime win that they didn't deserve. Now they have to go on the road to play a division rival on a huge losing streak. It's hard to imagine they'll have the same motivation, and they're laying too many points with a quarterback playing his third game.
374 Oakland +3 (-120)
K.C. has run the gauntlet and won five impressive games in a row. Oakland has been schizophrenic, but they should be up for this.
354 Browns +10
In six days, the Browns go from being a 4 1/2 point favorite at home to a 10 point underdog at home. The fans and cities hate each other, and have to think that Cincy will be a little too overconfident here.
304 Dallas +3 1/2
Just don't trust the Jets to lay more than a field goal on the road. It's a huge look-ahead game for them with the home game against the Patriots next week. This week they get to play a game they don't care about against a team with a back-up quarterback. Dallas has been bad, but they run the ball well and play good defense. They should have enough pride to cover here.
314 Redskins +1 1/2
Buffalo was eliminated from the playoffs last week (for all intents and purposes), and now they get to play a second straight game. Hard to imagine they'll be motivated enough to beat a team with everything to play for. The Redskins have been schizophrenic this year, and have to think they'll continue playing well at home. Should be about 70 running plays in this one.
318 Cardinals/Eagles under 51
It's an outdoor night game in Philadelphia. Just too hard to imagine the quarterbacks coming up with enough big plays to get this over a very high total.
328 Broncos/Steelers under 45
Broncos have been playing a leather helmet game plan with Osweiler. Lots of running plays, good defense, not taking any chances. Even if they fall behind early, they'll continue to run first and pass second. Pittsburgh has scored more than 30 points five games in a row, so have to think that some regression to the mean will occur against a great defense.
330 49ers +6
It's hard for me not to go against a quarterback laying points in his first ever road start. Yes, Mccarron had good numbers last week, but it was against a defense that was playing not to lose. San Fran has been playing much better at home than on the road.
302 Buffalo +3
Jets couldn't cover the spread in their last road trip against a dead Cowboys team playing with their 4th string quarterback. Bills haven't been anything special down the stretch, but they should have enough pride to finish the year strong against a division rival.
309 Saints +5 1/2
Rivalry game between two teams that hate each other. Saints offense always seems to have enough firepower to hold everyone to at least a one possession game. Atlanta had looked dead but suddenly played their way back into it. It's still a big letdown spot for them after the win over Carolina.
314 Cleveland +11
No team should ever be a double-digit home underdog in the NFL. Yes, the Browns are the Browns, but their defense should be aided by the weather, and Pittsburgh was underwhelming last week.
330 49ers +3 1/2
Rams somehow won last week when no one gave them a chance. Now they get to make a second straight trip to the west coast to play a game no one cares about. 49ers have been competent in their home games this year, and that should continue here. Rams are 2-5 on the road this year, so it's impossible to bet them laying more than a field goal.
314 Cleveland +11
No team should ever be a double-digit home underdog in the NFL. Yes, the Browns are the Browns, but their defense should be aided by the weather, and Pittsburgh was underwhelming last week.
There will be more Pittsburgh fans than Browns fans at this game, so it's not much of a home game. That said, the current line of +13 looks a bit attractive.
102 Houston +3 1/2
I have to think it's historic to see four home underdogs in a playoff round, and it starts with two teams who six weeks ago were very longshots to make the playoffs.
Give Kansas City credit for winning 10 in a row, but none of their wins was really astounding. They won all their close games and had a few wins that were deceptive box scores. Early reports are that all the public money is coming in on them, and I have no problem fading that.
Love the way Houston is playing defense, and that hook at the end of the three is just too difficult to resist. Just for fun, I'll call for a 20-17 final score, with no clue which team wins.
104 Minnesota +5
Sometimes, the best opportunities for line value come after an unusual result. This line is too much of an overreaction to The Seahawks win in Minnesota last month. Yes, it was a resounding win, but it practically guarantees that the Vikings will be the more focused team this time around. The public won't be able to forget that Seattle won 38-7, and that's the only fact they'll consider. Just as in the above, getting more than 3 in a low totaled game is just too much value to pass up. Should be another 20-17 game.
108 Redskins +1
It's hard to understand why Green Bay limped home the way they did, and had they not won the Thanksgiving game against Detroit, they wouldn't even have made the playoffs. Redskins always play much better at home, and have to think they're looking at this as a game they should win.
312 Denver +3
Doubt the 3 1/2 will come back, but don't think it'll come into play. The perception of how good the Patriots are is nowhere near what the reality is. Forget Peyton Manning for a second and focus on Denver's defense and running game: those two parts of the team are better anyone else's, and that's what it takes to win in January. They'll get it done in a big way against a finesse team that the public loves to bet.
Comments
I have no idea what's going on with the line here. Even with Romo back, it's not clear that Dallas has much to play for. I've watched several Panther games, and they seem more solid than anyone is giving them credit for. Solid defense, no turnovers, and 35 running plays in a game will win almost every single time.
Carolina seems like a very square dog here with the disparity in record, but that lack of respect should make them even more motivated. It almost seems like the market keeps expecting them to lose. The bottom line is that the line is rating the Panthers as 1 point better than the Cowboys on a neutral field, and that just isn't accurate.
Washington has been a schizophrenic team this year as far as home/road dichotomy. It's a one game season for them, and have to like their chances against a Giant team that is nothing special. The Redskin team that destroyed New Orleans on this field two weeks ago should show up here.
270 49ers 10 1/2
More of a system play than anything else. No team should ever be a double digit home dog. San Fran has just enough offensive firepower to come in under the wire.
The line hasn't caught up to the weather report yet. Word is that it's going to rain much harder than expected.
More of a bet against the Broncos than a bet on the Chargers. It's just too big of a flat spot for Denver, off a dramatic overtime win that they didn't deserve. Now they have to go on the road to play a division rival on a huge losing streak. It's hard to imagine they'll have the same motivation, and they're laying too many points with a quarterback playing his third game.
374 Oakland +3 (-120)
K.C. has run the gauntlet and won five impressive games in a row. Oakland has been schizophrenic, but they should be up for this.
354 Browns +10
In six days, the Browns go from being a 4 1/2 point favorite at home to a 10 point underdog at home. The fans and cities hate each other, and have to think that Cincy will be a little too overconfident here.
376 Patriots/Eagles under 49 1/2
YTD 22-18
Late on this one, but Atlanta losing clinches the division for the Panthers.
Standard eight of clubs play. First one of the year.
116 St.Louis +3
120 New Orleans/Tampa under 50 1/2
126 Houston +3 1/2
128 Oakland/Denver under 43 1/2
Just don't trust the Jets to lay more than a field goal on the road. It's a huge look-ahead game for them with the home game against the Patriots next week. This week they get to play a game they don't care about against a team with a back-up quarterback. Dallas has been bad, but they run the ball well and play good defense. They should have enough pride to cover here.
314 Redskins +1 1/2
Buffalo was eliminated from the playoffs last week (for all intents and purposes), and now they get to play a second straight game. Hard to imagine they'll be motivated enough to beat a team with everything to play for. The Redskins have been schizophrenic this year, and have to think they'll continue playing well at home. Should be about 70 running plays in this one.
318 Cardinals/Eagles under 51
It's an outdoor night game in Philadelphia. Just too hard to imagine the quarterbacks coming up with enough big plays to get this over a very high total.
328 Broncos/Steelers under 45
Broncos have been playing a leather helmet game plan with Osweiler. Lots of running plays, good defense, not taking any chances. Even if they fall behind early, they'll continue to run first and pass second. Pittsburgh has scored more than 30 points five games in a row, so have to think that some regression to the mean will occur against a great defense.
330 49ers +6
It's hard for me not to go against a quarterback laying points in his first ever road start. Yes, Mccarron had good numbers last week, but it was against a defense that was playing not to lose. San Fran has been playing much better at home than on the road.
124 Titans +4
130 under 47 1/2
Jets couldn't cover the spread in their last road trip against a dead Cowboys team playing with their 4th string quarterback. Bills haven't been anything special down the stretch, but they should have enough pride to finish the year strong against a division rival.
309 Saints +5 1/2
Rivalry game between two teams that hate each other. Saints offense always seems to have enough firepower to hold everyone to at least a one possession game. Atlanta had looked dead but suddenly played their way back into it. It's still a big letdown spot for them after the win over Carolina.
314 Cleveland +11
No team should ever be a double-digit home underdog in the NFL. Yes, the Browns are the Browns, but their defense should be aided by the weather, and Pittsburgh was underwhelming last week.
330 49ers +3 1/2
Rams somehow won last week when no one gave them a chance. Now they get to make a second straight trip to the west coast to play a game no one cares about. 49ers have been competent in their home games this year, and that should continue here. Rams are 2-5 on the road this year, so it's impossible to bet them laying more than a field goal.
Detroit is a road favorite. End of write-up.
There will be more Pittsburgh fans than Browns fans at this game, so it's not much of a home game. That said, the current line of +13 looks a bit attractive.
I have to think it's historic to see four home underdogs in a playoff round, and it starts with two teams who six weeks ago were very longshots to make the playoffs.
Give Kansas City credit for winning 10 in a row, but none of their wins was really astounding. They won all their close games and had a few wins that were deceptive box scores. Early reports are that all the public money is coming in on them, and I have no problem fading that.
Love the way Houston is playing defense, and that hook at the end of the three is just too difficult to resist. Just for fun, I'll call for a 20-17 final score, with no clue which team wins.
104 Minnesota +5
Sometimes, the best opportunities for line value come after an unusual result. This line is too much of an overreaction to The Seahawks win in Minnesota last month. Yes, it was a resounding win, but it practically guarantees that the Vikings will be the more focused team this time around. The public won't be able to forget that Seattle won 38-7, and that's the only fact they'll consider. Just as in the above, getting more than 3 in a low totaled game is just too much value to pass up. Should be another 20-17 game.
108 Redskins +1
It's hard to understand why Green Bay limped home the way they did, and had they not won the Thanksgiving game against Detroit, they wouldn't even have made the playoffs. Redskins always play much better at home, and have to think they're looking at this as a game they should win.
Doubt the 3 1/2 will come back, but don't think it'll come into play. The perception of how good the Patriots are is nowhere near what the reality is. Forget Peyton Manning for a second and focus on Denver's defense and running game: those two parts of the team are better anyone else's, and that's what it takes to win in January. They'll get it done in a big way against a finesse team that the public loves to bet.
YTD 34-34
Substance always beats flash.