Betting Talk

- Soccer 2015/2016 -

Obi OneObi One Senior Member
edited July 2016 in Sports Betting
This thread will have all my soccer plays for the upcoming season. From national club leagues to international friendlies, it will all be in here.

Champions League prelims are underway. Here's where I see value:

Shakhtar Donetsk PK +105
FC Basel +167
Rapid Wien +167

Shakhtar goes off in 15 minutes, the other 2 are for tomorrow. If there are any questions, feel free to ask.
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Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2015
    Rapid Wien going for +112 currently......55 cts line value

    Contrary to baseball and ice-hockey, line-moves can be pretty substantial in soccer. However as there are much fewer goals being scored, variance in result is also higher.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2015
    Thursday 30/7,

    European Cup qualifiers:

    - Sturm Graz +170
    - Dynamo Minsk +470
    - Dynamo Minsk +1 -157

    Parlay:
    - Southampton, Borussia Dortmund, West Ham United +157

    ytd:
    1-1-1 for +0.67units
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2015
    Red card against, Own Goal against, Penalty Kick against and a couple of huge blunders by the Sturm Graz defense.......and still it was a profitable day :) Won't have anything this weekend. The Champions League and Euro Qualifiers returns resume on tuesday.

    ytd-u: 2-3-1 for +3.37 units
    ytd-w: 3-3-1 for +4.37 units
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Champions League Qualifiers (returns):

    Ajax -117
    Ajax/ Rapid Wien O2.5 -122
    - Gotta love these return games in elimination contests. Ajax is sporting a very young team this season, even though most of them have 2 or 3 seasons of European and local soccer experience already. They played very well in the attack last week in Rapid Wien's stadium. Too bad their defense made a couple of mistakes which allowed the Vienna players to equalise the game at 2-2. But given the coring chances, the game could have also ended 4-2 or 5-2 in Ajax' advantage.
    For the return, Vienna needs to win this match or play to a 2-2 draw to be able to get to penalties, otherwise they're eliminated. This wil open up the field for Ajax. This is not good for Vienna's weak defense. With Ajax playing at home, I'm pretty sure they'll win this game. With Vienna needing goals to advance, this will probably be an exciting match, with lots of attacks and shots on goal. It's just not Ajax' style to bunker down and play defensively. They'll try to maintain the 4-3-3 as much as possible.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    In France, Ligue 1, Friday:

    PSG -125 over Lille
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Two adds for this afternoon, Champions League prelims:

    - Dynamo Zagreb/Molde 1H U0.5/1 +122
    - Young Boys/ AS Monaco U2.5 +126
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    ytd-u: 3-6-1 for +1.20 units
    ytd-w: 4-6-1 for +2.20 units

    Champions League prelims:

    - Basel -1 +112
    - Basel/ Lech Poznan O2.5 -130
    - Shakhtar Donetsk -120
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Europa League prelims,

    Dynamo Minsk/ FC Zurich draw +229
    Inter Baku +1 -102
    AZ Alkmaar +0.5/ +1 -111
    Astra Giurgiu +168
    Southampton +140
    Sturm Graz +0.5/ +1 -108

    parlay:
    Southampton/ St Etienne +232
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    ytd-u: 9-8-2 for +5.98 units (last 6-2-1 for +4.78)
    ytd-w: 10-9-1 for +5.98 units (last 6-3-1 for +3.78)

    Friday, Ligue 1 pending:
    - PSG -125 vs Lille
    Current line is -140/-150 still good to go imo. Should be more around -200, Paris St Germain playing really good football early this season.

    Saturday, Premier League:
    Manchester United -152 and -1 +110
    Aston Villa +306 and +0.5 -114

    Netherlands, Eredivisie:
    Utrecht +1 +122 and +603
    Feyenoord a sieve in the back, few spurts of good defense in preseason friendlies, while Utrecht has the firepower to compete. Line totally out of whack.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Sunday,
    Premier League

    Arsenal -1.5 -112
    Arsenal -145 1H
    Arsenal HT/FT -113 (5D props)
    -Arsenal is a title contender that has started the season strong. They have only lost 2 home matches over their previous 37 games at The Emirates stadium. They beat Chelsea 2-0 last weekend for the Community Shield. West Ham United just lost to Astra Giurgiu (who?) and got eliminated from European Soccer. I'm simply not expecting them to score here. High chance of Arsenal doing their part and scoring 2. I'm also banking on them scoring at least 1 before halftime

    Southampton +166 vs Newcastle

    Holland Eredivisie:
    AZ Alkmaar PK +121 and +199 (3-way ML)
    Ajax/ AZ O2.5 -140 (2x)


    ytd-u: 12-9-3 for +8.98 units (last 3-0-1 for +3.00)
    ytd-w: 14-10-4 for +11.04 units (last 4-1-2 for +5.06)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Couple of games for today, monday:

    Premier League, UK:
    West Bromwich Albion/ Manchester City BTTS -125
    Manchester City -153

    Premier League, Belarus:
    Dynamo Minsk +0.5 -103
    Dynamo Minsk/ BATE Boris draw +225

    Premier League, Russia:
    Kuban +0.5 +108
    Kuban/ Krasnodar draw +252

    Both the Russian and Belarus games have totals shaded heavily towards the under 2.5 goals. Bookies were not expecting goals and the market still liked the numbers as such that they bet them down. Nobody is expecting a whole lot of goals in these games. BATE and Minsk have played 28 games combined this season. 21 of those stayed under 2.5 goals. And in Russia the last 6 games between Kuban and Krasnodar have stayed under. Therefore I'm not betting into the heavily shaded under, but found value in the handicap at +0.5 for both teams and the draw.

    Big loss yesterday on the Arsenal game. They were clearly the better side overall, but made 2 mistakes and those were the 2 chances West Ham needed. Just variance at work, Arsenal is not going to lose many more of these types of games at home this season.

    ytd-u: 13-12-3 for +6.53 units (last 1-3-0 for -2.45)
    ytd-w: 16-16-4 for +6.34 units (last 2-6-0 for -4.70)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Tuesday,

    Supercup:
    Sevilla ML +822 (half unit)
    Sevilla +1 +176
    - Please note that I don't have any indication or info which suggests Sevilla is going to dominate Barcelona. Barcelona in optima forma should normally beat Sevilla 2-0 or 3-1. The one thing that makes me place this bet is that Messi just had a busy summer, Neymar is sick and won't be playing and the team might not give a damn about this cup, after winning the treble last year. The price favours a drop on Sevilla. Especially because they're not playing in Spain.

    Holland, Eredivisie:
    As sure a thing as there is for today,
    PSV -186 (2x)
    PSV +108 1H


    ytd-u: 17-14-3 for +9.88 units (last 4-2-0 for +3.35)
    ytd-w: 20-18-4 for +9.69 units (last 4-2-0 for +3.35)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    1 add, also a pretty sure thing:

    Holland, Eredivisie:
    Heerenveen -183 (2x)
    Heerenveen +114 1H
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    Holland, Eredivisie:
    As sure a thing as there is for today,
    PSV -186 (2x)
    PSV +108 1H

    Holy shit,
    With PSV leading 2-1, ADO get a free kick about 35 yards out. They're already in the 90'+4 minute. It's desperation time for them and their goaltender who is pretty tall leaves his goal and moves forward to maybe head the ball in. Free kick goes to him and he frigging back-heels the ball in. One of the goals of the year. Painful.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    Holy shit,
    With PSV leading 2-1, ADO get a free kick about 35 yards out. They're already in the 90'+4 minute. It's desperation time for them and their goaltender who is pretty tall leaves his goal and moves forward to maybe head the ball in. Free kick goes to him and he frigging back-heels the ball in. One of the goals of the year. Painful.

    Here it is:
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Friday 14th,

    Premier League, UK:
    Aston Villa +1 -133
    ManUnited/ Aston Villa U2.5 -126

    Ligue 1, France:
    Lille/ Monaco U2
    Lille/ Monaco draw +266

    Nothing on the Bayern Munchen or Barcelona matches.

    ytd-u: 19-15-3 for +10.78 units (last 2-1-0 for +0.90)
    ytd-w: 24-22-4 for +9.37 units (last 4-4-0 for -0.32)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Saturday morning,

    Premier League, UK:
    Stoke City +0.5 +126
    Newcastle United +0.5 -105
    Leicester +236

    Ligue1, France:
    Guingamp +0.5 -130 (2x) (Olympique Lyon have not scored in 4 matches, trouble's brewing over there.)

    Bundesliga, Germany:
    Hoffenheim +1 +104
    Werder Bremen +206
    Borussia Monchengladbach +438 also +0.5/+1 -105

    Holland, Eredivisie:
    AZ Alkmaar +149
    Den Haag +399
    Ajax -1.5 +104

    ytd-u: 19-15-3 for +15.44 units (last 3-0-1 for +4.66)
    ytd-w: 24-22-4 for +14.03 units (last 3-0-1 for +4.66)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Huge day prevented by red card against and own goal against. No time to cap the sunday games, quick glance didn't reveal any opportunities.

    ytd-u: 26-20-5 for +18.69 units (last 4-5-1 for +3.25)
    ytd-w: 31-28-6for +14.68 units (last 4-6-1 for +0.65)
    *edit to record: units from yesterday were correct, but forgot to adjust the win-loss-push record. All is up to date now.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Champions League qualifiers:

    Bayer Leverkusen +170
    Sporting Lisboa +100

    Parlay:
    Bayer Leverkusen +0.5 -205 with Manchester United -286 pays +101
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    For saturday in the Premier League, UK:

    Manchester United/ Newcastle United U2.5 +118
    Newcastle United +1 +131
    - ManU currently with a solid defense and dominating midfield, it's just in the attack that nothing is working, they're not even very dangerous up front. Going to ride these unders for a while until I see something else from them.

    Aston Villa +0.5 -102
    West Ham United +138
    Tottenham Hotspur +178

    Sunday
    Everton +1 -138
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Champions League qualifiers wednesday:

    Monaco +0.5 +103 and also +403
    Valencia/ Monaco draw 1H +105
    Basel -1 -129
    Basel 1H +104
    Shakhtar PK -149

    multi-day parlays:
    Basel/ Southampton +97
    Basel/ Southampton/ Ajax +214

    ytd-u: 27-21-5 for +18.69 units (last 1-1-0 for +0.00)
    ytd-w: 32-29-6 for +13.68 units (last 1-2-0 for -1.00)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Europ League qualifiers:

    starts at noon (in 20 minutes):
    Minsk +256
    Astra Giurgiu +117

    later:
    Ajax -1 -115
    Midtjylland +1.5 -138

    parlay
    Ajax/ Athletic Bilbao +142 (2x)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Friday games, start in 1 hr,

    PSG -1 -120 (2x)
    - PSG really should win this. They have a monster team this year. I like this price even with Ibrahimovic and Di Maria out, that's how good they are. I'm not going to bet the ML at -200 for 2 units. Been a victim of soccer's variance already a couple of times, most notably with Basel last wednesday and Arsenal a couple of weeks ago. 2 teams that totally dominated the game, but lost the bets anyway. That's why I decided to take the -1 handicap at -120. PSG should win, will most probably win and hopefully wins by 2 goals. If your bookie has PSG to keep a clean sheet at better than -140 is a good bet also.

    Spain, La Liga:
    Sevilla/ Malaga BTTS -140

    wednesday results: 1-7 for -6.29
    thursday results: 3-1-1 for +2.73

    ytd-u: 31-23-6 for +22.42 units (last 3-0-1 for +4.73)
    ytd-w: 36-37-7 for +10.12 units (last 3-1-1 for +2.73)
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    For Sunday,

    Everton +1 -138 pending,

    Ajax -127
    Barcelona -184
    Real Madrid -1.5 -129
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Sorry for late post,

    AS Monaco/ Valencia Ovr 2.5 goals +113
    BTTS -117

    starts in 5 minutes
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Wednesday, Champions League qualifiers,

    Manchester United/ Club Brugge O2.5 -115
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Friday,

    Bundesliga, Germany:

    Shalke 04 +280 vs VFL Wolfsburg
    Peresic and De Bruyne are out for Wolfsburg. Especially De Bruyne was their creative motor on midfield. He will be sorely missed.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    In 15 minutes,

    Manchester United +115

    later:
    PSG -103 and also -1 +187
    Juventus +177
  • warrior2790warrior2790 Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    Now my book has PSG -115 for the match and -.5 at -115 as well which makes no sense to me...is there something Im missing?
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited August 2015
    You track your line value, Obi?

    Nice results so far!
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