- NFL 2015 -
Obi One
Senior Member
Futures to win AFC:
Cincinatti Bengals +1500
San Diego Chargers +1500
Houston Texans +2000
Futures to win NFC:
Philadelphia Eagles +1100
Carolina Panthers +1800
Regular Season Wins:
ARI O8.5 -105
CAR O8.5 +115
HOU O8.5 -125
NOR U8.5 +105
CIN O8.5 -130
SD O8 -130
Cincinatti Bengals +1500
San Diego Chargers +1500
Houston Texans +2000
Futures to win NFC:
Philadelphia Eagles +1100
Carolina Panthers +1800
Regular Season Wins:
ARI O8.5 -105
CAR O8.5 +115
HOU O8.5 -125
NOR U8.5 +105
CIN O8.5 -130
SD O8 -130
Comments
241 PIT +3.5 vs MIN
- News is that Pittsburgh will sit their most important guys. But that shouldn't matter much, because the Minny starters are not going to play a lot either. It will be scrubs against scrubs for most of the game. Anytime you spot me a +3.5 head start in a 50/50 proposition, I'll take it.
242 PIT/MIN 1H U17.5
NE -3 +100
WSH +2
Friday:
PIT PK
ytd-u: 1-1 for -0.1 units
ytd-w: 1-1 for -0.1 units
263 TEN +2
268 CIN 1H -0.5
- The Eagles depth should get this one in the pocket. Arguably 3.5 starting QB's on their roster. Some of these guys will be facing 3rd and 4th tier players in coverage.
420 DEN/HOU U41
423 SD +3 vs ARI
415 NE/NO O43
430 TEN -2 vs STL
Adding
1413 DAL +3 -120 1H
1414 DAL/SF U21 1H
- DAL -5.5 vs NYG
One thing is for certain, barring an injury to Tony Romo, this line is definitely not going to move the Giants' way. The Giants have a huge problem on defense. Their D-line lost JPP and is currently one of the worst in the league. They are going up against the best O-line. Advantage Dallas. I simply do not see them getting any pressure on Tony Romo, nor do I see them stop the running game. Over the last few weeks the Giants have also lost a lot of players in their secondary to injury. By the time you have to patch things up with the hire of Brandon Meriweather, things are really looking bad for you. I'm certain I revealed no new information in the post above, so I'm basically surprised this line isn't -8 yet. Yes, that's how big of a favourite Dallas should be. 8 is the new 7 this year folks. Ooooh, ....and did I mention the vastly improved Dallas D? I mean, just the return of Sean Lee, a very smart player and their defensive leader when he's on the field, is an upgrade. I'm sure Marinelli will find a way to blanket the Manning-to-Beckham-Jr-connection. Dallas will control the clock, control the trenches and the Gianst will lose this game. By a lot.
- BAL/ DEN U51
Denver has a very good defense. It's a very talented bunch with a solid coordinator. Baltimore should be above average too, but lost their best run-stopper, Haloti Ngata, to the Vikings this past offseason. It's a weak point that I can see the Broncos attacking early. It's also general (speculative) knowledge that the Broncos will want to rush more as to spare Manning's arm for later in the season. Baltimore over the recent years has had a very big gap between their home/road performances. I don't see that changing this year. Concluding: There will be 2 very good defenses on the field and 2 offenses that have lost quitte a bit of talent in the offseason.
unweighted: 11-6 for +4.40 units
CIN +2.5
- Bad news for the rookie crab-stealing-QB, behind a weak O-line: The Cincy D is here. Also watch for AJ McCarron in the 2H.
Preseason WK3:
253 TEN +4.5
253 TEN/ KC O43 (2x)
261 ATL/ MIA O44 (2x)
271 PHI +3 -120
273 IND +2
274 IND/ STL U42.5
276 SD +1
278 SF/ DEN U43 (5D)
If you have any questions, feel free to ask, I'd gladly explain my picks.
TB -3 vs CLE
CLE/ TB U41.5
Jimmy Garropolo time!
unweighted: 17-12-1 for +3.80 units
weighted: 18-13-1 for +3.70 units
continuing with the picks for week 1 of the regular season as I most probably won't have any picks up for WK4 of the preseason, until the QB's are confirmed.
476 SEA/ STL U42.5
- Both teams have weak offensive lines going up against very strong defensive fronts. It's not something I can see them fixing in the next 2 weeks. They're deprived of talent on that front. Only thing that can screw this one up are a bunch of return TD's or pick-6's in my opinion.
PHI -2 vs ATL
This offense looks unstoppable. Bradford is the perfect fit for Kelly's offense: quick decisions, short throwing motion and accurate throws. I don't see Atlanta stopping them. Too many holes on defense, even though they have improved compared to last year. I think the Philly defense is going to be solid too. Line will probably close at -3.
471 MIA -3.5 vs WSH
- I don't believe for a second that Cousins is the solution for WSH in the long term. This bet is made with Tannenhil's accuracy and Bill Lazor's uptempo style offense in mind. They're much better than Washington's offense. Most importantly is what I've seen so far from the Suh-led defensive line. Havoc is the first word that comes to mind. Re-watch their 3rd preseason game. They have 4 monsters on that line in Suh, Wake, Vernon and Mitchell. Not even a quick-release QB like Matt Ryan couldn't escape the rush. Washington will have to work wonders to keep Cousins upright and mistake free. Line is more probable to move to the 4 instead of back to the 3.
470 BUF +2.5 vs IND
While Luck as a plethora of weapons to throw to, Buffalo is actually one of the teams who has the CB's to go toe to toe with them. I definitely don't like Indy's offensive line, which is a major disadvantage with the stout Buffalo front they have to face on the road. Line won't get to +3 so grabbing the +2.5 here. I hope Tyrod Taylor has exactly zero turnovers.
4 moved my way, 2 holding steady
Lines at release vs current lines,
DAL -5.5 is now -6
BAL/DEN U51 is now U49
SEA/STL U42.5 is now U40.5
PHI -2 is now -3
MIA -3.5 is still -3.5
BUF +2.5 is still +2.5
Let's wait and see what happens to the lines on sunday.
Been preparing for week 2 already:
- With KC and DEN playing each other on the Thursday Night tilt, I'm expecting that game's total to open at 40.5, maybe the 41. It's going to get pounded down quickly. Grab the early number if you like the under. I know I like it very much at 41. KC should be -3 favourite over Denver. Anything less is value on KC.
- Cowboys and Eagles both figure to score a lot this week. This will have the books open a higher number, as they expect the money to come in on the over. The value with these 2 good defenses lies with the under in my opinion. Unless Bradford absolutely shreds the Falcons this week to the tune of 45+ points, which will make me reconsider my stance. Expecting this game to open around the 54 range.
Regarding KC/Den in week 2, I think we could be coming off a KC loss to Houston and a Denver cover over Balt... And I expect more of a KC -2.5, 44 total. Denver is a slightly better team I think and home field calculated at 3 even in KC. If KC looks good in a win, this becomes -3. On total, I think depends on game plan Denver shows us in week 1 and how much they have Peyton on a pitch count. KC top CB Sean Smith still will be out for this one though. I agree with you Denver D appears to be dominant and the Kubiak system will run the ball more... I guess I just see Denver scoring a bit more in Week 1 than you do.
Was going a bit too quick there. Looked up their last few games. Total has been at 49 over the last 4. We might both be too low. The results have been 45/ 41/ 63/ and 44. With the short week of preparation and most important the recovery for the players, I'll be pounding the under. My observations/ opinion has Manning (and the Denver offense) a worse player/unit than last year and Alex Smith (and the KC offense) a bit better. Enjoy your trip to Vegas. Hope it's a profitable one.
If New England wins the coin toss, they'll defer so they can start the 2nd Half
If Pittsburgh wins the coin toss, they'll want to start the game with the ball.
PIT 1Q +0.5 -105
PIT scores first +135
NE 3Q -0.5 -120
Marcus Wheaton pass receptions over 4.5 +110
YTD-u: 1-1-0 for -0.20 units
YTD-w: 1-3-0 for -2.20 units
102 KC -3 -105
102 DEN/KC U43.5
270 BUF +1 -105
273 TEN +2.5
YTD-u: 4-3-0 for +0.60 units
YTD-w: 4-5-0 for -1.40 units
PHI -3 pending WK1.
Watch it close at 39