Betting Talk

NFL Week 1- Projecting Line Moves

DeadMoneyDeadMoney Senior Member
edited July 2015 in Sports Betting
I took:

Green Bay -5 -115 over Chicago

Minn. +3 -125 Over San Fran.

Indy -2.5 -110 Over Buff.

I'm hoping I can get some CLV by playing them so early.

I'd like to get a thread started on how people see the lines moving for these and all games by the time week one starts.

GL.

Comments

  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited July 2015
    The way the major media outlets have been writing, you'll most probably get positive CLV on all 3 of them in the short term. By that I mean the period, before the preseason starts. However, As I noted in another thread on early NFL numbers, a lot can (and most probably will) change by the time the real games start in September. I personally learned from last year, where a lot of the notions I had before the preseason games started turned out to be wrong.
    Most of the current analysis and movement of the Vegas numbers is based on players drafted, players traded, players bought, new coaches, new staffs, regression theories, suspensions etc etc. However none of them are based on what the new players, coaches and staffs ACTUALLY will do. You don't know right now whether teams will run more, or throw more, blitz more, play-action more. Almost nobody has any clue about the new strategies of most teams. Anybody predicted last year that the Cowboys would run it almost 60% of the time? Or that Cutler would regress in his 2nd year under Trestman the offensive Guru? I can go on and on with examples. Fact is, you simply don't know, unless you're there at the coaches meetings day in and day out.
    Heck a staff can even go into the preseason trying to run a certain scheme, notice that it's not working and totally change things for the final 2 weeks of the preseason and hope they made the right decision as to optimise the strengths of their personnel group.

    Coming back to your topic,
    Based on the current reporting, these are some other plays you can get CLV on, but again, I'd wait till a couple of preseason games to jump in:

    Miami -2.5 @ Washington
    Seattle -3 @ St Louis
    Cincinatti -3 @ Oakland
    Baltimore/ Denver Under 52
    NY Jets -3 vs Cleveland
  • mgmhatesmemgmhatesme Member
    edited July 2015
    sides where the should be some pressure for the line to move (not suggesting I like these... only placed a wager on NYJ so far)

    GB -5.5, -110 at Chi
    NYJ -3, -107 vs CLE
    KC +1.5, -110 at Hou
    Indy -2.5, -110 at Buff
    Mia -2.5, -115 at Wash
    Car -4, -110 at Jax
    Sea -3, -125 at STL
    Cin -3, -125 at OAK
    Dal -5.5, -115 vs NYG
    Phi -1, -110 at ATL
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