Wind (also air density) fully factored into prices?

Comments

• underwraps Senior Member

  June 2015 edited June 2015

  http://www.baseball-weather.com/baseball_ballpark_analyzer_flash.html
  
  let the stadiums load and use flash mode and look at the wind how its coming in. I think if this # reaches 10.5 -110 I will go under
• Octan21 Member

  June 2015 edited June 2015

  All of these obvious weather variables are factored in. It's my understanding that the wind velocity and direction numbers from the weather sites are not accurate for inside the actual ballparks. I could be wrong about that though.
  
  A friend used a highly sophisticated totals betting model that was almost entirely predicated on weather info. He broke even after 3-years of betting.
• underwraps Senior Member

  June 2015 edited June 2015

  A friend used a highly sophisticated totals betting model that was almost entirely predicated on weather info. He broke even after 3-years of betting.

  I also think it just creates a lot of noise and its over hyped and often creates value on the opposite side
• spiderman77 Senior Member

  June 2015 edited June 2015

  Octan21 wrote: »

  All of these obvious weather variables are factored in.

  
  Agreed, at least for the closing numbers. But not so much for the overnights in cases where the weather patterns change on the day of the game. If you look at the hour by hour forecasts and isolate games where the winds and/or temperatures are predicted to change before the start of the game you will find some real nice betting opportunities. It's a good bit of work and it doesn't result in a lot of plays, but when it sets up well it can be very profitable. It works best in parks that are set up in a way that normal weather pattern changes result in temperature trends and wind trends that both have the same impact on scoring.
• kdog Senior Member

  June 2015 edited June 2015

  underwraps wrote: »

  http://www.baseball-weather.com/baseball_ballpark_analyzer_flash.html
  
  let the stadiums load and use flash mode and look at the wind how its coming in. I think if this # reaches 10.5 -110 I will go under

  
  I've found that there are a lot of discrepancies between this app and Daily Baseball Data's weather dashboard. http://dailybaseballdata.com/cgi-bin/weather.pl Large discrepancies, like sometimes totally opposite. I have no way of checking each and every stadium to see which is better obviously but from following line movements when they differ I'd place more confidence in Daily Baseball Data.