Betting Talk

SJPicks WNBA Thread

sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
edited July 2015 in Sports Betting
Creating new thread for my WNBA Picks. Two WNBA picks are pending that were posted in my NBA thread yesterday. Lots of good line movement on these thus far.

Atlanta Dream -4.5 (x1)
Washington Mystics -4.5 (x1)

Betting Talk Life Time WNBA Record: 8-4 (67%) +3.6 UNITS
All Sports Betting Talk Weighted Record: 18-9 (67%) +12.5 UNITS
All Sports Betting Talk Unweighted Record: 18-9(67%) +8.1 UNITS
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Comments

  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Indiana Fever 2nd Half +3 (x1)
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Minnesota Lynx -13 (x1)

    1-2 -0.2 units CLV +1.75 so far on season.
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    sweetjones55 wrote: »
    CLV +1.75 so far on season.

    Not including the -1.5 pts of CLV for half of a basketball game, right? When considering a 3 gm sample, it's pretty important to note that move as it was MAJOR market disagreement.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    blackbull wrote: »
    Not including the -1.5 pts of CLV for half of a basketball game, right? When considering a 3 gm sample, it's pretty important to note that move as it was MAJOR market disagreement.

    I follow Right Angle Sports grading philosophy. I have never counted 1Q's, 1H's, 2H's into my official CLV numbers. It would be highly misleading and a misinterpretation of my CLV as a 1Q/Half line can never move 3+ points like a full game/total line can.
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    sweetjones55 wrote: »
    It would be highly misleading and a misinterpretation of my CLV as a 1Q/Half line can never move 3+ points like a full game/total line can.

    Noting that one of the three positions you've been on so far (that is not included in your stated CLV avg.) went MAJORLY against you is misleading? LOL!

    (And you're right about one thing: a halftime line moving 1.5 points is worth A LOT more than the 2.0 pt and 1.5 pt moves that you accrued for full game positions. So stating that your CLV is 1.75 is misleading. It makes it look like you are decisively beating the market early on. You are not and it should be noted for those considering whether they want to follow you.)
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    To lose 1.5 points of value on a 2H side is pretty impressively awful.
  • MikeRASMikeRAS Senior Handicapper
    edited June 2015
    It went through the 0-1 for game so wasnt quite as bad as sounds.
  • blackbullblackbull Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    MikeRAS wrote: »
    It went through the 0-1 for game so wasnt quite as bad as sounds.

    Valid point. Still significant market disagreement that is being hidden and thus misrepresents early ability to beat the market.
  • buckeyesbuckeyes Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Easiest way to solve this would to keep seperate records for whole games and all other plays. Then just track CLV seperately as well.
  • barmoycmbarmoycm Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    look forward to the season SJ
  • winner_13winner_13 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Can we make a separate discussion thread?

    Good luck this season, SJ
  • barmoycmbarmoycm Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    not really a discussion about plays or anything ever... typically everyone picks on this guy about records and shit in primarily most of his threads
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    barmoycm wrote: »
    not really a discussion about plays or anything ever... typically everyone picks on this guy about records and shit in primarily most of his threads

    Just some sharp dudes pointing out facts and I'm sure Sweet Water Jones or whatever his name is can handle getting called out and if not then he's not as sharp as he wants people to believe. It happen to be a vaild discussion and I think that went over your head. Nobody was beating him up just pointing out facts.
  • lilylily Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    No dog in the fight, but Sweet does seem to encounter more criticism than most posters. I am aware he runs a service but he doesn't / or isn't allowed to promote so I look at him as just another poster/contributor.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    blackbull wrote: »
    Noting that one of the three positions you've been on so far (that is not included in your stated CLV avg.) went MAJORLY against you is misleading? LOL!

    (And you're right about one thing: a halftime line moving 1.5 points is worth A LOT more than the 2.0 pt and 1.5 pt moves that you accrued for full game positions. So stating that your CLV is 1.75 is misleading. It makes it look like you are decisively beating the market early on. You are not and it should be noted for those considering whether they want to follow you.)

    I understand your argument but at the same time I have released 1Q/1H plays that have moved a lot in my favor in terms of CLV and I've never factored in. My CLV would be much higher if I included 1Q/1H/2H movements into my official tallies. But I have never incorporated those CLV's into my official numbers so I am just simply keeping it consistent going forward.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    sweetjones55 wrote: »
    Minnesota Lynx -13 (x1)Winner

    1-2 -1.2 units CLV +1.75 so far on season.

    Minnesota by 24. Current record is 2-2 -0.2 Units, CLV +1.17.
  • barmoycmbarmoycm Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    nice win! easy moneys
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    San Antonio Silverstars -2 (x1)
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    L yest on SA. Current Season Record is 2-3 -1.2 +1.40 CLV
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (x1)
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    sweetjones55 wrote: »
    Minnesota Lynx -7.5 (x1) WINNER

    Lynx win by 15. Current Season record is 3-3 -0.2 Units +1.9 CLV
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited June 2015
    sweetjones55 wrote: »
    Current Season record is 3-3 -0.2 Units +1.9 CLV

    Think that should be -0.3u.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Goats wrote: »
    Think that should be -0.3u.

    Thanks, will update.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    2015 WNBA Season Record 3-3 -0.2 Units +1.9 CLV
    All Sports Betting Talk Weighted Record: 21-12 (64%) +12.2 UNITS
    All Sports Betting Talk Unweighted Record: 21-12 (64%) +7.8 UNITS

    All Sports Betting Talk Full Game Closing Line Value Analysis
    Closing Line Value: +1
    Beat Close: 23 Times
    Pushed Close: 5 Times
    Lost Close: 1 Time
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    2015 WNBA Season Record 3-3 -0.3* Units +1.9 CLV
    Lifetime BettingTalk WNBA Record 11-7 (61%) +3.3 UNITS

    * (Typo: This years total is -0.3, not -0.2)
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    I will more than likely have a play on tomorrows games.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    sweetjones55 wrote: »
    I will more than likely have a play on tomorrows games.

    Great post, thanks!
  • bumpobumpo Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    I have no horse in this race but sj takes a pounding here. If he's done something objectionable in the past, it's passed. If he's trying to generate business with a winning record, not unique. We're not being very sociable. Posting free winners.... maybe he deserves a break. Just sayin'.
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    Washington Mystics -3 (x1)
  • sweetjones55sweetjones55 Senior Member
    edited June 2015
    3-4 -1.4 Units on season
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