Baseball discussion
Old-Timer
Senior Member
I don't expect to many replys because people feel they're giving away winners that will cost them lines.
Lets face there's a lot of sharp guys that hang around here. But there not professionals that are making a living paying bills and living a better life through sports betting. There are some I understand that so what I'm getting to is looking for how the other 98% bet baseball because handicapping a full baseball card is insane. Not only do you have to handicap the starting pitcher but even more important you have to know who's available in the bullpen. how many days did they throw how many pitches did they throw. the lineup the month of the year as some pitchers don't like cold weather and continually have bad April's and some t doesn't them at all. there's so much you can spend an hour on one game.
There are people that use modeling and do a good job some years and some years get killed. I have about 7 angles that I use and it takes me about an hour to do a full baseball card. then another half to go back to double check that what I saw was correct and I want to play that game. I've had decent success over the years in baseball and the NBA. Just trying to win a few more games then I lose.
One angle I use to use until about 3 years ago because of having to many angles (or trends call it want you will) sometimes they bump into each other and causes confusion.
But I still track this one every year but don't blindly play it. That angle is only in April and April only I take the opening Pinny line and play the Home Dog blindly
So far this year it's 22-18 +7.01 units. Funny close to my record this year only the units are almost the same but I have 11 more plays. That's without the Milwaukee win today Philly was the other one and lose but you picked up 0.08 Units.
Just so some know that I've decided not to post any picks (Really no big deal) Gambling and more so sports is a game of numbers and I really don't like to be told what books I have to use even if I can get a nickle more at a reputable book. It's really not a big deal I just don't being like told what numbers I'm allowed and what I'm not. I'm not cheating everything is time stamped.
So my question to people tthat don't use a model how do you bet your games. Also if you make your own line from the power rankings what adjustments do you make. I don't expect the pro's to answer this but I do expect some of the guys who place picks everyday how they arrive at a play. They don't have to give away secerts just some kind of idea. EX: Do you always play a team that does well against lefties when facing them. I think K.C is 6-1 already this year. Don't quote me doing this from memory. This is up for disscussions.
Also since tomorrow's lines are up anybody see anything.
Lets face there's a lot of sharp guys that hang around here. But there not professionals that are making a living paying bills and living a better life through sports betting. There are some I understand that so what I'm getting to is looking for how the other 98% bet baseball because handicapping a full baseball card is insane. Not only do you have to handicap the starting pitcher but even more important you have to know who's available in the bullpen. how many days did they throw how many pitches did they throw. the lineup the month of the year as some pitchers don't like cold weather and continually have bad April's and some t doesn't them at all. there's so much you can spend an hour on one game.
There are people that use modeling and do a good job some years and some years get killed. I have about 7 angles that I use and it takes me about an hour to do a full baseball card. then another half to go back to double check that what I saw was correct and I want to play that game. I've had decent success over the years in baseball and the NBA. Just trying to win a few more games then I lose.
One angle I use to use until about 3 years ago because of having to many angles (or trends call it want you will) sometimes they bump into each other and causes confusion.
But I still track this one every year but don't blindly play it. That angle is only in April and April only I take the opening Pinny line and play the Home Dog blindly
So far this year it's 22-18 +7.01 units. Funny close to my record this year only the units are almost the same but I have 11 more plays. That's without the Milwaukee win today Philly was the other one and lose but you picked up 0.08 Units.
Just so some know that I've decided not to post any picks (Really no big deal) Gambling and more so sports is a game of numbers and I really don't like to be told what books I have to use even if I can get a nickle more at a reputable book. It's really not a big deal I just don't being like told what numbers I'm allowed and what I'm not. I'm not cheating everything is time stamped.
So my question to people tthat don't use a model how do you bet your games. Also if you make your own line from the power rankings what adjustments do you make. I don't expect the pro's to answer this but I do expect some of the guys who place picks everyday how they arrive at a play. They don't have to give away secerts just some kind of idea. EX: Do you always play a team that does well against lefties when facing them. I think K.C is 6-1 already this year. Don't quote me doing this from memory. This is up for disscussions.
Also since tomorrow's lines are up anybody see anything.
Comments
I've upped the Toronto(Roger's Center) HFA 2-4cents until the rest of MLB adjusts to the new "mickey mouse" turf installed this year. If I'm playing infield there.........I'd wear a cup.
OT you pointed out all the normal stuff to look at (which yes is incredibly time consuming). Especially in April May I really do look at the winds and the parks and how that effects things. Nothing ground breaking there. But putting this together with bullpen usage and SP matchups, I think early in the season TTs are something that you can grind out a profit on.
One other thing that I think is useful long term is a real good knowledge of the schedule. Which can be extremely time consuming if you really want to get ahead of the curve and look into the future (10 day-ish) of teams travel and building a database on how teams are off say a divisional series then long travel with no off day (hint hint....ONE of the reasons Im on the DBacks tonight). Baseball is a grind obviously and there are a million different things to look at. I love the game so I actually watch as much as I can, which of course is the best way to get feels for teams, but I know most people arent sitting around watching MLB extra innings 6 days a week like me.....
Im no pro, just some thoughts.
Betting Sanchez every home game. Ground ball pitcher and throws a heavy ball I'll pay the price for that. I may have just taught the books something.
I agree with every thing you said. I started in Feb charting every teams schedule Home and Away. This year I'm trying something that I've tried before and it didn't do anything but that was long ago. I'm charting the first game back from a no less (It's never more) three city road trip on how they preform. Getting home seeing the kids convining the wife you didn't bang every women with a pluse. Just being home with the daily stress of home life or non stress which ever and then even having a day off which they usually do how does the team preform.
It may be nothing and I'm not betting this year but I'd like to see how it works out. There's four teams playing there first game back tonight two from each league. Houston and the Yanks and in the national Miami and Cincinnati. One think it has to be three cities. Believe it or not I think there's two teams that play two 4 game sets back to back on the road but I'm not counting that. While looking I look at distance also. Once all the charting which tooks weeks it's about 1.5 hours a day to fill the blanks which I try to do at night and then in the morning look at the days schedule.
it is now 24-18 +9.13 units. Remember it's Pinny's opening line that I use. I counted yesterday Milwaukee which opened +110 but closed -104
I'm using the books opening line IMO it's the best way it's consistent.
Sorry it's a mistake it's 23-19 +7.09
Not trying to be smart just a question. These days it's just so hard to keep up with all the movement.
Interesting, I just like betting what the book puts out and in the case so far getting the best of the numbers. Good Luck Munson always good to hear from you. Not getting the openers but getting the +'s but again just tracking. Who know's maybe next year I'll put the blind fold on and them in April.
Adjustments are always a tricky subject. In sports like football and basketball, when a starter is not starting, you pretty much know they aren't going to play. They usually aren't dressed and you have more of an idea how much, if any, they are worth. Many are still over adjusted for. Hockey has the worst public adjustments(I'd love any team I was on to have their best forward announced as out before I bet). Baseball is completely different. Unless the guy is on the DL, I rarely adjust for a "big guy" out of the lineup. There are a couple reasons.
First, if you break down even the best players, their value in winning any game is not as constant as football/basketball. They may have a huge part in one game, no part in two others. That may or may not be any fault of their own. If you have 4 at bats with 2 out and no one on, you really can't be faulted much if you don't contribute. If you adjusted based on his avg for those three games, you would be way off all three games. Even the best players have more games they don't contribute more than their sub would. The lines move so much when they are out, better off not adjusting. Yesterday when it would announced McCutcheon was out, line went from -119 to +100. Why?
Second, using the Cutch example above, there is nothing that will keep Pit from using him in a high leverage spot as a PH. As luck would have it, his normal spot in the order yesterday had two RBI opportunites and Polanco singled both times, but often times you get 0 or 1 chance to hit with RISP. He can pinch hit in a similar spot and still bring the expected value his bat would bring if he was in the lineup(he did PH to lead off the 7th inning) and if you do it right, you can use him in spot where he won't be pitched around.
If we are talking about a prolonged absence vs a day of rest situation, I would take what I feel the player is worth to his team over a season if he played every game, divide it by 162, and cut it in half. If after a few weeks it appears he is worth more, I use the original number(rarely ever).
As far as numbers vs righties/lefties, I don't pay attention to righties much because show me a player who can't hit righties and I will show you who is the ass side of a platoon. Show me a team who can't hit righties and I will show you a horrible team that will show in the rest of the numbers. As far as lefties, I split them up, thumbers/power pitchers. There is a much bigger difference in lefty thumber/power pitchers than righties so separating the results can show things. As far as teams records, I don't use them as far as success/failure, I use the expected runs scored compared to how they do vs righties. But, I like to pay attention to their records because you can find spots where a team is 23-10 against lefties, 34-31 vs righties, but their exp runs are much worse against lefties. Their record isn't because they have hit lefties well, but you will usually get good lines playing against them because people just see the record and play them. Can't remember who it was last year, but someone fit that situation. You look back and see a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 wins. They weren't hitting lefties, they just happened to be getting great pitching when they faced lefties. Their record will regress.
I only have the last 2 years handy. 2013 they were -20.21 units tracked off Pinny close. 2014 an eye popping - 47.73 units. So far this season after a bad start they have come on in the last week to +3.86 units.
The way I account for April HD may not be the right way but when the line opens at +10 and groups or sharps turn it into a Favorite. I want the + not because I like the play as I said before it just gives me some consistency and of course a lot easier. Question, your betting theses lets say now a team opens +10 and all day it's -02 -04 and then the last flash it's +05 what number did you bet it at. Did you have time to play at close. I'm just saying if you were playing them blind. Another example your not by the computer when the game goes off. my point is that is just easier to grab the opening line and play it.
it's no fun going against the Market if that team should become a favorite and it's no fun if that team closes +122. But it's for tracking purpose's and it gives me something to track. I love tracking baseball. Sometimes you find a gem. Back a while ago I was tracking the first game of a series and betting the teams that had winning records starting a series. That was the year the Mets were like 26-2 in the first game of a series. Things like that don't last we know that but we should also know if you recognize a gem bang it and then recognize it when it's over give a little back and get off.
In the casino business yes I know it's different but everyone has a system and at one time or another they killed with that system then they went broke because the thought they found the Holy Grail. Every trend and system will work for a period of time if your lucky to recognize it get on it and then when you see it go bad get off. I have to get back to telling a few Casino stories like I use to and this post will make more sense. There's a lot of new guys who haven't heard some of my stories I'll tell a few after the weekend. That's the key recognize the run and know when it's over.
I've become a recreational player over the past years. The many years before that it was like stealing. Now the new thing in town is a 15c line. The South Point, the Rampart William Hill are still 10c but for how long. Not sure about the M but what's happening to our town
It's almost impossible to make a living playing in NV only now. OT, you talk about stealing? Remember quite a few years back when Caesar's was dealing a 5cent line? Scalping became a new occupation for many. They told me they made money booking it for the year. I don't believe much though. It was discontinued the following.
He beat cancer. He'll figure it out.
thanks for the info
Yeah, defense has to be considered as well but just like offense, there are more games where everything they handle is easy mixing in the occasional play where their exceptional defense is the reason they made the play. Even the best have little to no impact on most of the games compared to the avg sub. They just have more games where they do impact it. You are better off underestimating the impact or not adjusting than to use an average.
There are many myths still talked about today that maybe they were true 30 years ago, maybe even 10 years ago, but are no longer applicable. That may be a good thread starter because there are a lot of them, especially in horse racing like a certain track known as the graveyard of favorites is actually the #1 fav ROI track in the country the last 5 years of tracks having more than 1500 races(and #3 out of 86 with no race restrictions), and why you actually get better pitches to hit and more knowledge with Jose Altuve on 1st than Miguel Carbera hitting behind you.