Clippers/SAS Series Opinions if you have
Old-Timer
Senior Member
I agree with both sides of looking at Thrends but I do look and don't like to go back more then 2/3 years at the most. The reason Players and Coaches just play to much musical chairs.
Here's something that's worth noting the Clippers are 35-16 -1 to the Under when playing with One days rest. The rest of the series they're playing the spurs every other day. Yes I know the nooks know also but then again if your only going to bet what the books don't know give up betting on sports. I believe this year it really plays because of there bench. Besides Crawford they have nothing and on less they show up the starters are going to play mega minutes and look to slow it down somewhat because the Spurs throw everyone at you. What do you think the reason is.
Here's something that's worth noting the Clippers are 35-16 -1 to the Under when playing with One days rest. The rest of the series they're playing the spurs every other day. Yes I know the nooks know also but then again if your only going to bet what the books don't know give up betting on sports. I believe this year it really plays because of there bench. Besides Crawford they have nothing and on less they show up the starters are going to play mega minutes and look to slow it down somewhat because the Spurs throw everyone at you. What do you think the reason is.
Comments
One important question is: What lines were those unders?
Don't forget that the Clips missed Griffin, Crawford for about 20 games each. Their bench is weak, so very little scoring to make up for those 2. Everybody's healthy now. They have the highest Offensive Rating for the season AND moreso over the last 15 games of the regular season. So they're humming. From what I saw in those 2 games, you can't really stop them, not with the (hobbled) players Pops has available right now. Only way to beat them is by scoring and scoring a lot. Remember, last night the game stayed 'under' for regulation time, but the Clips missed a shitload of FT's and Spurs scored only 2 points over a 5 minute stretch in the 4th.
1) Who will control the pace? If you feel the Clips, you should favor the Under, regardless. If Spurs, then on to point 2...
2) Can the Clips bench score enough to keep them in the game? With such a short bench, there's also the potential to see Griffin or Jordan in foul trouble (again, resulting in that awful bench getting involved). If I lean under in the remaining games it's because I think that the combination of potential foul trouble, Spurs controlling tempo, Clips bench simply being inefficient on offense outweighs the potential for another OT game OR a high-scoring game in which the Clips bench either plays sparingly (as in games 1 & 2) or plays effectively. The Clips obviously have the younger legs so this may not come to the surface until game 4, but I think it's a factor at some point.
Unrelated, but somewhat on point, I can't stop thinking about game 1 of the Finals last year (Aka "The Broken Air Conditioner Game"). It wouldn't shock me if the AT&T Center is just a bit warmer tomorrow night than usual. ; )
In my opinion this is wrong. Yes They're younger legs but by game 5/6 with no bench they won't be young anymore.
The classic line in "Raging Bull" He's not pretty anymore" I knew Jake for a little while did a little work for him.and if there was a tougher guy on this earth let me know.
Sorry for the double post trying to pump up the nimnbers
I was actually agreeing with your take but saying that we may still see the relatively "Younger" legs of the Clips in Game 3. That said, I think it's unrealistic to expect them to look fresh as the series progresses unless they get blown out in Game 3 or 4 and sit Griffin, Paul, Jordan, Redick, etc.
I liked the Spurs in 6 before this series began because of the lack of Clips bench depth and I still do. And if it goes 7, I think the Clips will be walking on jello. That will be 6 games and 4 fairly long flights in 11 days.
Sorry if I misunderstood your post I actually scan it instead of reading it my bad. Also SAS was -170 to win the series that was another red flag. Tomorrow lets talk about GS because I don't think they win it all. I like Memphis they just need to start scoring like they did before the all star break.
What I noted last night is that Pops started Hack-a-Jordan not when they had the lead per se (they had it for quite a while in the game) but right after the Clippers made a small run to cut their deficit. Both in the 3rd and in the 4th quarters. I think one of the reasons Pops uses it is to get the crowd out of the game. Another reason might be to get his players a bit of rest (goes for the other team too off course). In practice the net result of the strategy has been around zero so far. Maybe even a bit negative. Here's why: What you could witness last night was that as a result of the stoppage of the game for the FT's, the Clippers were always set on defense when the Spurs got the ball back. As a result the Clippers defensive efficiency went up drastically. The Spurs need the transition game to beat the Clips. That's where a possible 'over' correlation could come from, they need an uptempo, fast transition game to be able to beat the Clips. The Spurs in my opinion are not correlated to the over when it comes to the Hacking strategy.
In my mind he feels with there 3point shooters he would rather have Jordan on the free throw line even with the clock stop. Yes the clippers can set there defence and in IMO pop then slows the game down. I don't think he want's to run with these young studs. The only problem is trying not to foul everyone out. Two key players on the bench Duncun with 5 fouls. He also must not not the Clippers get the offence board off the free throw. He's also forcing Doc to get the big off the floor. If I was Doc I would have taken him out when the game got close.
Should be interesting for here on out.