That's a pretty scary method. If you truly like Baltimore but feel the price is too good, then you don't trust your numbers. If you don't trust your numbers, why play them?
I don't believe in trap games based on lines. Teams can be in bad situations for games, in which case it could be a "trap" game for them, but the line doesn't make it so. If you do the research and find out what does and doesn't matter, the lines stop looking like traps. I'm not saying use the raw numbers, "teams are X-Y in this spot". Put it in your model and see if it matters line wise. The samples can be so small and whoever came up with it probably stopped at a year where it started working or had limited data. You may find out that despite the overall record of the angle, the angle had nothing or a very small factor in the record. When I put some angles I thought mattered into my model a couple years ago, some mattered, some didn't. The ones that mattered, some were pretty eye opening. When you do it that way, you can see what the books/public know about now/still don't know. Texas yesterday was a perfect example. Two monster bad spots for Seattle and the line gets bet down 20 cents from the open. Now I can't say in this spot it is worth a certain %, because other people may find in their model it is worth something else, but I can say that as big as they are in mine, it is almost a certainty that it is worth something in any model. I almost played it overnight at close to open but about 80% of the games where one of these two spots have come up, the lines have moved the other way so I waited. Would you have backed off because the line moved the wrong way? It could have lost, wouldn't mean anything more than not every game wins, it wasn't a trap line on Texas, it was just off.
It appears the season is done for you as you said as mine is as well except the occasional spot play here and there. Thank you for your time and work and truly loved the overnights. Good luck with your Football and Hockey season.
OT
Nice season in MLB. Thanks for posting. Toga very good again this year for me to. I haven't played much Delmar this year.
So no CFB or NFL this year? Do you feel you have a better edge in Hockey?
Nice season in MLB. Thanks for posting. Toga very good again this year for me to. I haven't played much Delmar this year.
So no CFB or NFL this year? Do you feel you have a better edge in Hockey?
Del Mar has been ok, not typical, better lately now that I have enough dirt data to use. Toga has been very good, been the most frustrating great season. Hit some good pick 4's, but it's been the year of 5 out of 6. 4 times I have hit 5 out of 6 in the pick 6, including 3 times in the last week. Yesterday was the only day I wasn't alive into the 6th race and the other 3 my horses were 2nd /3rd, or 2nd/3rd/4th. A couple have paid well so it wasn't awful but 200K is better than 30K. Most of the losing pick 4's have been the same, alive to the last, have the race covered all the way, lose by a nose. Start going crazy and just all the last race in them.
I've always felt I had a bigger edge in hockey than football and if I see what I think I will see in the next couple weeks, my hockey model will be the best model I have done. I plan on just doing hockey and college basketball this winter, and I haven't officially decided everything yet but my service will be different. I did some preliminary work on last season football and despite the improving CLV, I don't think those models will win going forward. I was going to work on another model during the summer but as we got into late June/July, I had little interest in doing so. This past summer was my last season of playing baseball and I wanted to enjoy it. Even now, I have had little interest in anything to do with football. When Del Mar/Toga ends, and hockey is ready to go mid-September, maybe things will change and I will start missing football. If that happens, I will probably start working on a model and see what I discover.
POS # Horse WinPlace Show
1
4
Arietta $47.80 $18.40 $13.20
2
5
Wantagh Queen - $11.60 $7.90
3
3
Glare Ice - - $7.10
4
1
Scout It Out - - -
$1.00 Exacta 4-5 $190.75
$1.00 Trifecta 4-5-3 $1157.00
$0.10 Superfecta 4-5-3-1 $489.10
$2.00 Daily Double 2/4 $132.00
$1.00 Pick 3 3 of 3 2/2/4 $708.50
I Just buried them in toga I'm alive with 7 8 10 11 in pick 3s in race 6
I've been in that spot many times, and that is exactly what has happened to me. One bomb too many. Was alive Monday to 5 horses in the last leg of the late pick 4, with will pays between 2500-5500, and not a single one even hit the board(3 of the top 4 favs, a middle horse, and a bomb), 45-1 winner that caused the pick 6 carryover. Think the 9 just caused a double carryover. I can't be disappointed because it has been a great Toga meeting for me, but it could have been my best ever. Never been alive to more big pick 4's/6's with horses who were either among the favorites or had legit shots and lost by less than a half length.
Yeah real sick because I was wheeled to the 2 6 9 10 in the 7th and the 2 won pick 3 payed 42K..I'm throwing up now. Should be a pick 6 carryover for sure
Yeah real sick because I was wheeled to the 2 6 9 10 in the 7th and the 2 won pick 3 payed 42K..I'm throwing up now. Should be a pick 6 carryover for sure
Had the 2 in the 7th to start my pick 4. I was hoping for something good there because the next two races look a little thin, 7,8 in the 8th, 3,6,8,9 in the 9th but i think the 3 may romp at low odds, 2,4,10,11 in the 10th.
Two races at Del Mar my software considers longshot races. 48 of them so far at Del Mar, 42% of them won by horses at 6-1+, compared with 36% won by the top 2 ML favs.
Race 3 I like the #2 Real Heat ML 12-1
Race 9 I like the #6 Lirica Heat ML 6-1, with possibly a smaller play on the #8 Three Blondes if she is 9-1 or higher.
looks Liz Voss got us in the 8th.. step up in class move, which I usually look for and only reason I didn't like the horse was because of the trainer change coming from Grahm Motion
Pick 6 carry over for Toga tomm is $201,242 :thumbup:
My son wanted me to throw him some BP and I forgot to get my pick 6 in Toga today. Saw Arrieta won the 1st race of the pick 6 and was dreading my ticket hitting for a bomb with nothing on it. The 9 in the next race made me feel better. Probably the last big pick 6 of the Toga year so I will spread at will(but save some for the Del Mar carryover).
I did real well with Arrieta, but missed every pick 3 in front of him. I'm going to spread deep to, hopefully we get a piece of this pie before the meet ends.
I did real well with Arrieta, but missed every pick 3 in front of him. I'm going to spread deep to, hopefully we get a piece of this pie before the meet ends.
Damage won't be too bad. My pick 6 is heavy in the front, lighter as we go, no singles. $2160 total. Haven't gone thru Del Mar yet but the race totals my software has given those races, may be a deep one as well. I may decide to hope for a two day carryover there depending on what I can put together. Won't make a 2K ticket for a 50K carryover.
Comments
Ha yes exactly
Great question. I'm excited to hear the answer.
I don't believe in trap games based on lines. Teams can be in bad situations for games, in which case it could be a "trap" game for them, but the line doesn't make it so. If you do the research and find out what does and doesn't matter, the lines stop looking like traps. I'm not saying use the raw numbers, "teams are X-Y in this spot". Put it in your model and see if it matters line wise. The samples can be so small and whoever came up with it probably stopped at a year where it started working or had limited data. You may find out that despite the overall record of the angle, the angle had nothing or a very small factor in the record. When I put some angles I thought mattered into my model a couple years ago, some mattered, some didn't. The ones that mattered, some were pretty eye opening. When you do it that way, you can see what the books/public know about now/still don't know. Texas yesterday was a perfect example. Two monster bad spots for Seattle and the line gets bet down 20 cents from the open. Now I can't say in this spot it is worth a certain %, because other people may find in their model it is worth something else, but I can say that as big as they are in mine, it is almost a certainty that it is worth something in any model. I almost played it overnight at close to open but about 80% of the games where one of these two spots have come up, the lines have moved the other way so I waited. Would you have backed off because the line moved the wrong way? It could have lost, wouldn't mean anything more than not every game wins, it wasn't a trap line on Texas, it was just off.
I jumped the gun early on this one last night. Glad to see you on the same side. i added a bit more since your post.
OT
Dr H: Nice season yourself.
OT: No football for me this year. One more week of Del Mar/Toga and on to hockey.
Always the best to you. Been playing a little De-Mar/Toga myself make it a good week.
Nice season in MLB. Thanks for posting. Toga very good again this year for me to. I haven't played much Delmar this year.
So no CFB or NFL this year? Do you feel you have a better edge in Hockey?
Del Mar has been ok, not typical, better lately now that I have enough dirt data to use. Toga has been very good, been the most frustrating great season. Hit some good pick 4's, but it's been the year of 5 out of 6. 4 times I have hit 5 out of 6 in the pick 6, including 3 times in the last week. Yesterday was the only day I wasn't alive into the 6th race and the other 3 my horses were 2nd /3rd, or 2nd/3rd/4th. A couple have paid well so it wasn't awful but 200K is better than 30K.
I've always felt I had a bigger edge in hockey than football and if I see what I think I will see in the next couple weeks, my hockey model will be the best model I have done. I plan on just doing hockey and college basketball this winter, and I haven't officially decided everything yet but my service will be different. I did some preliminary work on last season football and despite the improving CLV, I don't think those models will win going forward. I was going to work on another model during the summer but as we got into late June/July, I had little interest in doing so. This past summer was my last season of playing baseball and I wanted to enjoy it. Even now, I have had little interest in anything to do with football. When Del Mar/Toga ends, and hockey is ready to go mid-September, maybe things will change and I will start missing football. If that happens, I will probably start working on a model and see what I discover.
1
4
Arietta $47.80 $18.40 $13.20
2
5
Wantagh Queen - $11.60 $7.90
3
3
Glare Ice - - $7.10
4
1
Scout It Out - - -
$1.00 Exacta 4-5 $190.75
$1.00 Trifecta 4-5-3 $1157.00
$0.10 Superfecta 4-5-3-1 $489.10
$2.00 Daily Double 2/4 $132.00
$1.00 Pick 3 3 of 3 2/2/4 $708.50
I Just buried them in toga
I've been in that spot many times, and that is exactly what has happened to me.
Had the 2 in the 7th to start my pick 4. I was hoping for something good there because the next two races look a little thin, 7,8 in the 8th, 3,6,8,9 in the 9th but i think the 3 may romp at low odds, 2,4,10,11 in the 10th.
Two races at Del Mar my software considers longshot races. 48 of them so far at Del Mar, 42% of them won by horses at 6-1+, compared with 36% won by the top 2 ML favs.
Race 3 I like the #2 Real Heat ML 12-1
Race 9 I like the #6 Lirica Heat ML 6-1, with possibly a smaller play on the #8 Three Blondes if she is 9-1 or higher.
whats up with you and Kruljac ? you connected with this barn
No, just a coincidence. He's had a good meet though.
My son wanted me to throw him some BP and I forgot to get my pick 6 in Toga today. Saw Arrieta won the 1st race of the pick 6 and was dreading my ticket hitting for a bomb with nothing on it. The 9 in the next race made me feel better.
Damage won't be too bad. My pick 6 is heavy in the front, lighter as we go, no singles. $2160 total. Haven't gone thru Del Mar yet but the race totals my software has given those races, may be a deep one as well. I may decide to hope for a two day carryover there depending on what I can put together. Won't make a 2K ticket for a 50K carryover.