Betting Talk

Buffettgambler 2015 MLB Discussion Thread

GoatsGoats Head Moderator
edited April 2016 in Sports Betting
Please use this thread for any comments/questions pertaining to BG's 2015 MLB plays and kindly refrain from posting in his picks thread. Thanks.
«13456710

Comments

  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    Great Day Yesterday and keep it going. Best of luck. The style appears to be a little diffrent with some adjustments made and hopefully the results will be positive.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    Funny you should say that OT. I was thinking that there was a change in the sense of playing many small faves rather than big faves. Hope you are well.
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    His style has changed IMO but then again I only know him from last year so I could be off base, Been there before. I'm not saying he's re-inventing himself he's been winning to long to do that or for anyone to even think that but this business is constantly evolving and now you have rule changes that personally I think are working out fine. Looking forward to his plays Win,Lose or Draw he's giving you hard work and his best. Have to pull for a man like that.

    Munson, Man I can't tell you how good it is to see you. Hope all is well. Be talking to you.:clap:
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2015
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    His style has changed IMO but then again I only know him from last year so I could be off base, Been there before. I'm not saying he's re-inventing himself he's been winning to long to do that or for anyone to even think that but this business is constantly evolving and now you have rule changes that personally I think are working out fine. Looking forward to his plays Win,Lose or Draw he's giving you hard work and his best. Have to pull for a man like that.
    Modeling is always a dynamic process. But true, no reinventing going on here. I wouldn't put any effort into looking for structural changes in style. What is being posted is only a subset of my plays. So there can be an appearance of biases or stylistic changes that aren't there when evaluating an overall portfolio of plays. I would assume that should hold true for anyone posting plays on forums.

    Thanks for the well wishes. Wish you the same and congrats on last seasons success
  • Old-TimerOld-Timer Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    Modeling is always a dynamic process. But true, no reinventing going on here. I wouldn't put any effort into looking for structural changes in style. What is being posted is only a subset of my plays. So there can be an appearance of biases or stylistic changes that aren't there when evaluating an overall portfolio of plays. I would assume that should hold true for anyone posting plays on forums.

    Thanks for the well wishes. Wish you the same and congrats on last seasons success

    Thanks for the kind words. Not to bad this season so far just not posting this year. 21-18 +3.13 W/1.54CLV
    Not looking to break rules just thought I would mention it. Have a lot going on right nowto think about not forgeting to post. I don't forget to bet though:laugh:Thinking of starting May 1st at 0-0 of course. Good luck to all this coming baseball season.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    Munson, Man I can't tell you how good it is to see you. Hope all is well. Be talking to you.

    Thank you very much, OT...always a class act, 2 of the best guys on the net right in the beginning of this thread, BG and OT...here's to a successful year for us all.:thumbup1:
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    Old-Timer wrote: »
    Thanks for the kind words. Not to bad this season so far just not posting this year. 21-18 +3.13 W/1.54CLV
    Not looking to break rules just thought I would mention it. Have a lot going on right nowto think about not forgeting to post. I don't forget to bet though:laugh:Thinking of starting May 1st at 0-0 of course. Good luck to all this coming baseball season.

    I was wondering where you were at.Good luck this season.
  • bluejakebluejake Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    BG, check your overall total, I think you should be 32-27 not 31-27. Do both listed pitchers have to go or just the one you have in ( Simon) ? Thank You for sharing.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    Jake I think he uses listed pitchers on all plays...if not, shame on me for not re-betting at the new price.
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2015
    bluejake wrote: »
    BG, check your overall total, I think you should be 32-27 not 31-27. Do both listed pitchers have to go or just the one you have in ( Simon) ? Thank You for sharing.
    Right, both listed have to go.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    How would your model adjust Camden Yard's HFA sans crowd?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited April 2015
    bump for reply
  • buffettgamblerbuffettgambler Senior Handicapper
    edited April 2015
    Ronbets wrote: »
    How would your model adjust Camden Yard's HFA sans crowd?
    I marginally downgraded their HFA and increased my margin of safety for today's unique situation. Crowd noise is not a main driving force for HFA in baseball.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    Great day today. I appreciate all of your hard work. I love the market response this year.

    Good luck.
    Eddie
  • buythehookbuythehook Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    Adding
    5/6*
    932 Rockies -123 (Matzek)
    ***************

    It says this game is rotation # 904 early game?

    I just want to make sure we have the right game
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    Matzek game 1
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    hope we're not playing Sale today, SY just put out Detroit.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited May 2015
    munson15 wrote: »
    hope we're not playing Sale today, SY just put out Detroit.

    Shouldn't matter, my games that make it thru the overnight haven't exactly set the world on fire yet. Good news is with Sale pitching, we won't blow a 5 run lead.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    because we won't HAVE a 5-run lead?
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited May 2015
    munson15 wrote: »
    because we won't HAVE a 5-run lead?

    yeah, win or lose, not many people light up Chris Sale.
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    really what I meant was since I follow BG and yourself, and I already played Detroit, I wouldn't want to have to go over the top with Chicago.:toast:
  • munson15munson15 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    StevieY wrote: »
    yeah, win or lose, not many people light up Chris Sale.
    thanks, and p.s. love the avatar...perfect for a hockey fan:laugh:
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    I guess going to the well for the 3rd time with Matzek was one too many.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    Time to move along from the Indians and Boston for awhile.
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    I know a lot of people don't like to hear this. Sports wagering is about closing line value. Long-term you will do very well if you get the best of it consistently.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    cpech56 wrote: »
    Time to move along from the Indians and Boston for awhile.

    Market clearly agrees.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    jakenhl wrote: »
    I know a lot of people don't like to hear this. Sports wagering is about closing line value. Long-term you will do very well if you get the best of it consistently.

    I'm not disagreeing with this at all but I've had success essentially factoring in how teams are playing at the current time in addition to beating the close. His plays on Boston and Cleveland all week long surely havent factored in how poorly the two teams are playing right now, injuries and suspensions. And if they have factored any of those call me crazy. The's two teams have been wrongfully favored in a number of games the last 10 days And if doesn't appear to me that the market I'd adjusting much so far.

    That being said, I'm on Cleveland today for the first time this week.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    Raid on Lobstein Detroit. :laugh:
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    Anyone tracking BG's clv this year ?
  • jakenhljakenhl Senior Member
    edited May 2015
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    Anyone tracking BG's clv this year ?
    I don't have it in front of me. But his CLV is definitely on the plus side. His baseball looks like it did two years ago. The market is ever-changing what was a play an hour ago may not be now. He post at various times throughout the day. Which shows he is putting in the effort that it takes to win at this. I believe running a service is always a disadvantage in today's market. I wish he could use more than just pincle and cris more plays would open up.
Sign In or Register to comment.