Betting Talk

a prop I saw at an online site

acetotenacetoten Senior Member
edited February 2015 in Sports Betting
Kentucky Wildcats - Will they Finish the 2014-15 NCAA Basketball Season Undefeated (no losses in regular or post season)


Yes --+225
No ---350

I'm thinking yes at +225
sucker bet?
what do you guys think?

ace

Comments

  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Have you seen there remaining schedule? I'd be all over yes
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    acetoten wrote: »
    Kentucky Wildcats - Will they Finish the 2014-15 NCAA Basketball Season Undefeated (no losses in regular or post season)


    Yes --+225
    No ---350

    I'm thinking yes at +225
    sucker bet?
    what do you guys think?

    ace

    I disagree cpech. Here's my reasoning. They have atleast 7 realist shots at being upset the remainder of the basketball season. Here's where I think they are.

    Regular season(2) at Florida and at LSU.
    SEC Tourney @Nashville(2) either the semi-final or final.
    Big Tourney(3)Elite 8, Final 4, or Final

    Plus maybe Coach Cal rests some regs along the way
    I'd lay the NO for the limit.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2015
    I wouldn't touch the +225. If you look at Pomeroy, they've got a 44.4% chance of running the table in the regular season. Then, they'd still need to get through the SEC tournament and the NCAAs. If you were to give me a Kentucky vs. the Field bet in the NCAAs, I'd certainly take the other 67 teams, so even if Pomeroy's 44% is a little low and it's more like 50%, you're still looking at <25% of running it all I'd think. If anything, there might be some value in the -350, though not too much.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Parlay the money lines for the forthcoming 5/6 games and you have the same +225
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    Parlay the money lines for the forthcoming 5/6 games and you have the same +225

    Obi how do you come up with only 5/6 games? This prop is for the regular and post season.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Obi how do you come up with only 5/6 games? This prop is for the regular and post season.

    What I mean is:
    Instead of betting 1u on the prop, take that unit and bet it on Kentucky's ML for the next game. If it wins roll it over for the 2nd game on the ML. After about 5 or 6 games (might be more, might be less) you will have your +225 payout if Kentucky wins all of the games outright. In this case you won't need to sweat the tournaments. And you can stop at anytime.
  • mjc257mjc257 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Lots of value in No at -350 imo. I played it at the spots I had available to me.
  • cpech56cpech56 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    I apologize I read it as regular season only. Certainly would agree with you others on the no.
  • nyjets1532nyjets1532 Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    "No" is -295 at 5dimes right now.
  • StricknineStricknine Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    They are too offensively challenged to run the table. Unlikely they win the tourney let alone go undefeated.
  • mik5058mik5058 Junior Member
    edited January 2015
    nyjets1532 wrote: »
    "No" is -295 at 5dimes right now.

    $100 max
  • billymacbillymac Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Stricknine wrote: »
    They are too offensively challenged to run the table. Unlikely they win the tourney let alone go undefeated.
    Strongly disagree. Best defensive team in ages. Will be a legit odds on fav. come tourney time
  • billymacbillymac Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    What I mean is:
    Instead of betting 1u on the prop, take that unit and bet it on Kentucky's ML for the next game. If it wins roll it over for the 2nd game on the ML. After about 5 or 6 games (might be more, might be less) you will have your +225 payout if Kentucky wins all of the games outright. In this case you won't need to sweat the tournaments. And you can stop at anytime.
    Agree with this as well
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    What I mean is:
    Instead of betting 1u on the prop, take that unit and bet it on Kentucky's ML for the next game. If it wins roll it over for the 2nd game on the ML. After about 5 or 6 games (might be more, might be less) you will have your +225 payout if Kentucky wins all of the games outright.

    I disagree with this part pretty strongly. It's gonna take way more than 5-6 games to get +225 on your $. Just running some numbers, I think it'll take you at least into the middle of the NCAA tournament to get better than 2-1 on your money, unless of course we see some injuries/suspensions.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    TommyL wrote: »
    I disagree with this part pretty strongly. It's gonna take way more than 5-6 games to get +225 on your $. Just running some numbers, I think it'll take you at least into the middle of the NCAA tournament to get better than 2-1 on your money, unless of course we see some injuries/suspensions.

    10 games at -800 yields +225
    Yes that's more games, but my main point was that if you do it this way you can stop at any point AND if you do it this way till the championship game (provided they get there and win) your yield is going to be a lot more than +225

    So answering cpech's original question: Yes this is a sucker bet.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    First game
    $100 to win $2.35 at 5D -4250
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    First game
    $100 to win $2.35 at 5D -4250

    I'm in a jam Obi with this Ky/Ala game. Trying to lay the -4000 to win a gallon of gas(2.55) @5Dimes. Problem is I don't have an account there.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    day 2:

    $102.35 at -4000 to win $2.56

    Simply putting my money where my mouth is Ron, let's see where this stands in about 5 weeks
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    No prob Obi. Just injecting some sarcastic humor.

    btw, isn't there a minimun 'to win' bet at that joint?
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited January 2015
    Ronbets wrote: »
    btw, isn't there a minimun 'to win' bet at that joint?

    Yes, but it's fifty cents.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited January 2015
    Ronbets wrote: »
    btw, isn't there a minimun 'to win' bet at that joint?

    Gotta believe Tommy, I don't know,
    Betting at a 5D clone so I can settle with a local every monday instead of WU hassle and betting it a bit bigger. Using the $100 for the example.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    game 3:

    Kentucky -3750
    $104.91 to win $2.8

    I remember when my grandfather asked me: 'How do you eat an Elephant?'
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Obi One wrote: »
    game 3:

    Kentucky -3750
    $104.91 to win $2.8

    I remember when my grandfather asked me: 'How do you eat an Elephant?'

    LOL he's got a point. However, my dad always told me, "time is money".
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Not to beat a dead elephant, but let's move forward. You're 3 games into your parlay. After 10 games I project your profit to be even money. $101.20 to be exact. Here's how I derived at this:

    Starting with leg #4
    Feb 7@FL -450

    Feb10@ LSU -700

    Feb14 SCAR -4500

    FEB17@TENN -1200

    FEB21AUB-5500

    1stSEC T gm-1800

    2ndSEC T gm-600

    Where R U stopping? U can't the show must go on to reach the +225 target. You gotta buck some more gms.
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    game 4:

    Kentucky -360
    $107.71 to win $29.92

    3 straight non-covers helps the line, but is it a sign of weakness for this team? Is their first loss imminent? Florida 1-5 ATS over their last 6.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Revised goal projection. I omitted 4 regularly scheduled SEC games. If UK remains winning they will reach the +230 mark after the 1st SEC tourney game.
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