Betting Talk

TommyL's 2015 Soccer Plays

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  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited February 2015
    The joys of African soccer (and it's not just Africa, really I should say "3rd World soccer")...Goats link pretty much gives the summary. Ghana's 1st goal was from a controversial PK, plus it was a very physical game with a lot of cards and hard tackles from both teams. In about the 82nd minute, the Ghana fans were getting pelted with bottles so badly from the Equatorial Guinea fans that they all came out of the stands and down onto the field to get away from it (not onto the actual "field" itself, but behind a goal where there was room). The 4th official was hit with a bottle. All hell was breaking loose. So rather than "sweating" the actual result on the field, I was instead having to root for the police to gain control so that they could finish out the game as it would've been a "no action" if they didn't complete the game.

    They ended up playing about 8-10 minutes less than they should have, but after about a 30 minute delay, the refs considered it the 90th minute and let both teams kick it around a little bit (3 minutes) so that they could save some face and make it look like the game was actually played to completion. But that's all that I needed! :)

    And Lancer, if you haven't already, I'd contact your book as it definitely should be graded as a win.
  • LancerLancer Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    They changed it to a W after awhile, lol
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Pending review here on Pinny.

    Tommy as always, thanks a lot for the picks
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited February 2015
    Pending review here on Pinny.

    If you don't mind, let me know how they grade it. I had it graded as a win, but I guess there always is the chance of it getting re-graded (very remote I think in this instance). I assume it has to be a win since they did "officially" play the 90 minutes and injury time, however the ref really did cut about 10 minutes of actual play out of the game to get it finished.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited February 2015
    The other thing that I'll be interested to see is what happens with the 3rd place game on Saturday. Based on everything that went down today, I really wouldn't be surprised if CAF and FIFA decide to call it off.
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    TommyL wrote: »
    If you don't mind, let me know how they grade it. I had it graded as a win, but I guess there always is the chance of it getting re-graded (very remote I think in this instance). I assume it has to be a win since they did "officially" play the 90 minutes and injury time, however the ref really did cut about 10 minutes of actual play out of the game to get it finished.

    Will do. They still haven't graded it - says it's under review.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited February 2015
    Saturday, 2/7

    Equatorial Guinea/DR Congo over 2 (-120) 1.2 units to win 1 unit
  • TotallyTiltTotallyTilt Senior Member
    edited February 2015
    Pinny ended up grading it as a win. These were the two messages on it:

    2/6
    5:04 AM [Soccer] [CAF - Africa Cup of Nations ] [Match] [Equatorial Guinea vs. Ghana]. The event has been re-graded to the original result of [Score 0-3]. Your bet on [Spread] with ticket-ID: [437409413] has not been affected.

    2/5
    4:00 PM [Soccer] [CAF - Africa Cup of Nations ] [Match] [Equatorial Guinea vs. Ghana]. The event has been un-graded pending review. Your bet on [Spread] with ticket-ID: [437409413] has been affected.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited February 2015
    Sunday, 2/8

    Ivory Coast E, -.5 Ghana (+109) .5 units to win .545 units
    Ivory Coast to win cup of nations (-140) .7 units to win .5 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited February 2015
    YTD Result: +9.22 units (ROI: +33.5%)
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited February 2015
    One for today, from the CONCACAF Champions League...

    Pachuca -1.5 Montreal Impact (-132) 1.98 units to win 1.5 units

    I probably would have played this for more (and did myself), but limits aren't always that high on these games for some so I'll grade it at 1.5 units. Just think that this is a horrible spot for Montreal, playing their first competitive game in 4 months with a roster that has a lot of new faces against a team that's in the middle of their season and are playing well as of late. Oh, and add to it that the game is about 8,000 feet above sea level. This would be a huge challenge keeping it close for Montreal if it were played in the middle of the summer, but it looks like way too much for them in February.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Goes off in 10 minutes...

    Denmark -.5 USA (-103) 1.03 units to win 1 unit
  • BayOceanBayOcean Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Excellent call!!
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    One for this afternoon...

    Brazil E, +.5 France (-125) 1.25 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Friday, 3/27

    Macedonia E Belarus (+110) 1 unit to win 1.1 units
    Slovenia -4 San Marino (-109) 1.09 units to win 1 unit
    Switzerland -1.5 Estonia (-133) 1.33 units to win 1 unit
    Russia -.5 Montenegro (+1.09) 1.5 units to win 1.635 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Saturday, 3/28

    Kazakhstan -.5 Iceland (+348) 1 unit to win 3.48 units
    Czech Republic -1.5 Latvia (-129) 1.29 units to win 1 unit
    Wales/Israel under 2 (+109) 1 unit to win 1.09 units
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Sunday, 3/29

    Northern Ireland E Finland (-110) 1.1 units to win 1 unit
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Heading into today...

    YTD Result: +9.24 units (ROI: +22.5%)
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    TommyL wrote: »
    Russia -.5 Montenegro (+1.09) 1.5 units to win 1.635 units

    Nothing like 3rd World soccer (maybe Montenegro isn't 3rd world, but not exactly first world with crap like this)...Russian GK gets hit with a flare and burned in the opening moments of the game, had to be taken off on a stretcher. Game is suspended, and I won't be surprised if it's called off and Russia gets 3 points.

    [video]
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Tommy why is it being interrupted again? Are the Ruskis pissed at their many failed chances?
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Called off. Sick fkn fans.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    I guess it's a "good beat" in the end, to get no action on a team giving .5 goals that is 0-0 in the 69th minute (live price on Russia -.5 would have certainly been > +109). But just such a weird game with Russia having to use up one of their 3 subs and their starting GK in the 1st minute due to actions from the opposing fans. I would have been really pissed had Russia actually converted the PK and was leading when it was abandoned.
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited March 2015
    Some books are leaving the play open in case of resumption. Some 24hrs others 48hrs must be finished by. I think the Russian frustration started the brawl after the missed PK. I think they finish the game if the PK was good.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited March 2015
    Ronbets wrote: »
    Some books are leaving the play open in case of resumption. Some 24hrs others 48hrs must be finished by. I think the Russian frustration started the brawl after the missed PK. I think they finish the game if the PK was good.

    I read that the Russian squad is headed back home already and there is no chance of the game being completed (Russia has a friendly on Tuesday). I don't see how this ends without Russia being awarded the 3-0 win, unless they do try and find another window to play it in an empty stadium. Also don't think that Montenegro's fans will see their team play in person for a while.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2015
    Current Record...

    YTD Result: +7.95 units (ROI: +19.4%)
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2015
    Wednesday, 4/15

    USA -.5 Mexico (+136) 1 unit to win 1.36 units

    Not a bad price for our B team against their C team.
  • GoatsGoats Head Moderator
    edited April 2015
    TommyL wrote: »
    Not a bad price for our B team against their C team.

    As usual, I'll defer to you on the opponent. As for the U.S. roster, I think we can put out a respectable back line and midfield in the starting XI, it's our forwards that worry me. Bad luck not having either Jozy or Clint available on top of our Europe-based forwards. All that said, I'd assume that's partly what's given you that price and from the "C team" comment, sounds like you're playing against Mexico as much as on the U.S.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2015
    Goats wrote: »
    As usual, I'll defer to you on the opponent. As for the U.S. roster, I think we can put out a respectable back line and midfield in the starting XI, it's our forwards that worry me. Bad luck not having either Jozy or Clint available on top of our Europe-based forwards. All that said, I'd assume that's partly what's given you that price and from the "C team" comment, sounds like you're playing against Mexico as much as on the U.S.

    Believe it or not, Wondo has more international goals than this entire Mexican roster (9 vs. 7). Only one guy on their squad (Francisco Rodriguez) made it to Brazil last summer. Mexico's 8 forwards/midfielders have a combined 24 caps (to put that in perspective, Mix Diskerud, who isn't exactly a "veteran", has 27).

    Here is an article from Andrea Canales about the squad...

    http://www.espnfc.com/team/mexico/203/blog/post/2397136/miguel-herreras-mexico-squad-full-of-fringe-players-deserving-of-a-second-chance

    Make no mistake, the roster that Mexico coach Miguel Herrera has called upon to face the U.S. on Wednesday is not the best the country can offer. None of El Tri's foreign contingent was called in and even top veterans in Liga MX, such as Marco Fabian, were passed over in favor of giving an opportunity to new, emerging talents.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2015
    One more for tonight...

    USA to win 2-0 (+1100) .2 units to win 2.2 units

    Just for old time's sake (plus I actually it's +EV).
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited April 2015
    My joy at that result was only surpassed by the awfulness of that field. Hopefully I'll be in attendance the next time we play Mexico (well, I'll be in attendance at the Gold Cup final, just hoping it's not to watch Costa Rica-Mexico).
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