Betting Talk

NHL puckline parlays correlation

D-ICEMAN1288D-ICEMAN1288 Junior Member
edited December 2014 in Sports Betting
My local allows me to parlay -1 1/2 +1 1/2 pucklines to totals.The numbers are from Pinnacles.Todays game #51 Washington Capitol vs Carolina Hurrricane game.$100 parlay of Washington Capitols -1 1/2 +260 parlay to over 5 1/2 +123 would get back $696.#55 NJ Devils +1 1/2 -193 parlay to under 5 1/2 -123 gets back $171.I understand 5 1/2 is a key total for these correlations.Any members crush these years ago with information to fully exploit these +ev plays will be fully appreciated.Most +ev situations to look for?

Comments

  • Sam BSam B Member
    edited December 2014
    I would like some advice on the best way to play these without drawing too much attention.
  • D-ICEMAN1288D-ICEMAN1288 Junior Member
    edited December 2014
    The local just doesnt know.Anyone? StevieY
  • D-ICEMAN1288D-ICEMAN1288 Junior Member
    edited December 2014
    The local just doesnt know.Anyone?Im parlaying with one basketball or football play. StevieY
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    so your making 3 team parlays with either a basket or foots?
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    They arent nearly as good as they appear. Get some data and figure it out.
  • D-ICEMAN1288D-ICEMAN1288 Junior Member
    edited December 2014
    I would mix it to a line thats shaded or off 1/2 PT. They clone the lines from Pinnacle.Tommorrows NHL #1.I could parlay $100 Ana Ducks -1 1/2 +227 to over 5-125 to win $483.If I add NFL #168 Minn Vickings -6 -101 same $100 parlay iwould win$1048.So I believe Im getting true odds.
  • D-ICEMAN1288D-ICEMAN1288 Junior Member
    edited December 2014
    Thanks Durito as you are truly respected by many.Thats the same advice you gave about the soccer tie parlay to under last year.My local also allows these.I hope I figure out which ones have + EV on those as not all parlays are +EV bets.I have Sunderland vs Liverpool .A $100 parlay of draw +355 to under +122 gets back$902.Another Arsenal vs Stoke city$100 parlay of+365 draw to under +123 gets back $923.Honest question for Durito .Am I in right direction and are these +ev bets? Give some hints how to go forward with NHL puckline parlays.Thanks
  • srn828srn828 Member
    edited December 2014
    In soccer, draw and under 2.5 is strongly correlated
  • D-ICEMAN1288D-ICEMAN1288 Junior Member
    edited December 2014
    If these soccer parlays are +ev bets .Do the higher +300s draw parlay to under have a higher +ev than the +200s draw to under.I see the correct score of 1-1 at lots of places are in itself a 6/1 payout.I also have the 0-0 tie which happens X amount of times.
  • srn828srn828 Member
    edited December 2014
    there is significant +ev regardless of the odds on the draw (assuming you are getting close to market value); this is simply because if you know the result to be a draw, there is a very high likelihood the score was 0-0 or 1-1 and, therefore, under the total as well. The correct score odds will indicate as much. You can blindly parlay the draw and under 2.5 at any out that will allow it. Whether the out will pay or how long you get away with it is another matter...
  • D-ICEMAN1288D-ICEMAN1288 Junior Member
    edited December 2014
    These are actual pinnacle lines so I believe its market value lines.Are the hockey puckline -1 1/2 parlay to over and +1 1/2 to under blind bets also if payouts are true odds?
  • srn828srn828 Member
    edited December 2014
    The hockey puck line is not nearly as correlated as the soccer draw and under 2.5. There are subsets where correlation does exist. Given that you are working with very low vig odds at pinnacle, it does not take much correlation to overcome the juice. You are on the right track as far as the total in the hockey game being key. I suggest you simply take a look at some closing lines for the past month or two (should provide a decent enough sample size) and look for the +ev subsets.
  • StevieYStevieY Senior Handicapper
    edited December 2014
    The puckline parlay isn't what it used to be. Shot data has leveled off the last 4 years so going back further than that would not be representative of the game now. Road Dogs/under 5.5's are ok.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Correlation found on Detroit Pistons's game.

    Philadelphia 76ers/Detroit Pistons Total Points 12/6/2014 4:41:01PM
    OVER 99 for 2nd Half -110
    Detroit Pistons 12/6/2014 4:41:01PM
    Spread -7 for 2nd Half -110
    : Please click on the continue button, then make a different selection.
    Correlation found on Philadelphia 76ers's game.

    Philadelphia 76ers/Detroit Pistons Total Points 12/6/2014 4:41:01PM
    UNDER 99 for 2nd Half -110
    Philadelphia 76ers 12/6/2014 4:41:01PM
    Spread +7 for 2nd Half -110
    : Please click on the continue button, then make a different selection.

    So do any of You know how and why this is correlated on a 2nd half NBA parlay ?? Because heritage seems to think it is and blocks the wagers
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Obviously there is a slight correlation, the question is it enough to give you an edge.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Funny thing is, this is the only book I'm aware of at the moment that blocks these 2nd Half NBA parlays. If there was a an edge I would assume more than 1 book would block it.
  • srn828srn828 Member
    edited December 2014
    Something to backtest? I suspect the correlation might be enough to provide a slight edge against lower big true parlay odds when two teams of contrasting pace are playing against one another.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    Away Team Controls Pace 197.4 Philly
    Home Team Controls Pace 190.1 Detroit

    do you think that's enough to justify a contrasting pace for those 2 teams?
  • srn828srn828 Member
    edited December 2014
    I don't know one way or the other; I haven't backtested against the data.
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    if you get a chance can you test it?
  • underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
    edited December 2014
    here is their response:

    A customer support staff member has replied to your support request, #54665 with the following response:

    This is the rule in regards to correlated plays in Basketball:
    The generally applied parameters for a significantly correlated parlay in Basketball are as follows:

    A) Full game total is less than twelve (12) times the full game spread.
    B) First or Second Half total is less than fifteen (15) times the First or Second Half spread.
    C) Quarter total is less than eighteen (18) times the Quarter spread.

    In your case it is consider correlated since the spread is 8 x 15 makes it 120 which is a lot more than the total for the second half.
    This was based on tonight's 2nd half NO vs Utah NO -8 u 101.5
  • richhhhrichhhh Junior Member
    edited December 2014
    I have a bookie that will allow correlated soccer ties with unders but has to much juice :(

    Example

    Cagliari vs Juventus

    Win Probability 69.6% 20.2% 10.2%
    Odds 1.25 4.50 8.00
    Correct Odds 1.44 4.95 9.81
    Edge -13.0% -9.1% -18.4%

    TOTALS (2.5) Over Under
    Win Probability 55.3% 44.7%
    Odds 1.55 1.90
    Correct Odds 1.81 2.24
    Edge -14.3% -15.0%
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