Las Vegas Sharps Report NFL Week 12
underwraps
Senior Member
Las Vegas Sharps Report NFL Week 12
Almost a full schedule this weekend in pro football, as only Carolina and Pittsburgh are sitting out with byes. Those are the last two byes of the season. So, well have complete 16-game NFL cards from Thanksgiving Weekend forward.
Heres how Sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting Sunday and Monday action thus far this week.
CLEVELAND AT ATLANTA:
Very little interest in this game thus far. Atlanta opened at -3, the standard value of home field advantage. Both teams need the win in their respective playoff races, but neither team is seen as playoff caliber by oddsmakers or the smartest bettors. Most everyone agrees that three is the right starting point. Sharps would fade any public move in this game. We can assume there isnt Atlanta interest or Falcons money would have come in early on the key number. Theres some Cleveland money thats waiting around to see if squares (the public) come in on the favorite before kickoff. Slight move up on the total from an opener of 46.5 to 47.
TENNESSEE AT PHILADELPHIA: Another very quiet game here. Philadelphia opened at -11. Sharps sure dont trust Mark Sanchez at a price that high. And, Tennessee is tough to take in a short week off a Monday Night heartbreaker against Pittsburgh. Its interesting that old school Sharps who like taking every double digit underdog havent made their presence felt yet. Perhaps they're waiting to see a game day rise generated by the public. This will not be a heavily bet game unless game day weather creates action.
DETROIT AT NEW ENGLAND:
The Patriots opened at -6, and have been bet up to -7. Sharps have been rather slow to get on the New England bandwagon. Results-wise, the Pats are playing as well now as they have in recent memory. Oddsmakers and Sharps werent giving them that credit, and have missed the mark badly in recent matchups with Denver and Indianapolis (and Chicago, and Buffalo, and Cincinnati as the current run is 5-1 ATS the last six!). Not surprisingly the opener was driven to the key number of seven by position-takers and those supporting New England. The public could push this game higher by kickoff. If that happens, New England will be a popular two-team teaser choice at -1.5, -2, or -2.5. Sharps generally use a basic strategy for teasers that involves any side that can cross both the 3 and the 7 with the six-point move allowed in two-team teasers.
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA:
The first games have been so quiet, that a budding tug-of-war here between Green Bay -9.5 and Minnesota +10 seems like a major development. The Vikings are getting interest at the key number of +10 as a home underdog. But, Packers money shows up at anything below that and likely would on Sunday as well given how great Green Bay looked last Sunday in a nationally televised blowout of Philadelphia. Id expect that tug-of-war to continue around the key number. The Over/Under is up at many stores from 48 to 49. Possibly the forecast for a relatively mild weather day outdoors in Minneapolis is a factor.
JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS:
The first number up of Indianapolis -13.5 was pushed up to -14. The Colts have done a good job of blowing out bad teams this season, so any Sharp betting that tendency wanted to get in right below the key number. Old school money that bets every big dog is likely waiting to see if the public pushes the game up above +14. This probably wont be a heavily bet game. But, the early card does have some blowout scenarios that appeal to bored squares. Jacksonville money from Sharps would come in hard at +14.5 if its ever available, if not they will likely take the big dog Jaguars anyway.
CINCINNATI AT HOUSTON:
Houston is up from an opener of -1 to -2. Sharps were impressed with Ryan Mallett but not impressed enough to drive the game all the way to three. This is our first game currently in the teaser window this week. Moving Cincinnati from +2 to +8 in two-team teasers will be a common strategy this week for Sharps if the line doesnt move from where it is now.
NY JETS VS. BUFFALO (game now to be played Monday Night in Detroit): Youve probably heard that this game has been moved to Monday Night because of the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo this week. It will be played in Detroit, making it a neutral site game. The offshore opener for the new scenario was Buffalo -2. Early money came in on the Bills, forcing other spots to open at Buffalo -2.5 or -3. Odd game for betting because theres no home field, and neither side is an indoor team. Some of the early betting comes from Sharps who believe Buffalos talent is better suited to the site. It will be interesting to watch game-day betting on Monday because squares could normally have a larger impact in the meeting than would normally be the case. The Jets at +8 or +8.5 would be a popular neutral field underdog in teaser plays.
TAMPA BAY AT CHICAGO:
A strong likelihood of rainy conditions has caused the total to drop from 48 to 46. Thats one of the biggest moves of the week so far! Looks like a tug-of-war brewing between Tampa Bay +6 and Chicago -5.5 on the team side. The Bears finally had a good game last week against Minnesota, which should help inspire squares to lay the points. Sharps will take the Bucs at +6 or better.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:
Its also supposed to be rainy in Seattle, and thats also caused a small but significant dip in the total. An opener of 42 is down to 41. 42 is a key number for totals, 6 touchdowns. An early tug-of-war is shaping up a point higher than in the game we just discussed. Seattle -6.5 is getting support, but so is Arizona +7. The public has backed off auto-betting Seattle at home because this just isnt the same team this year. Sharps have been fairly aggressive with Arizona when the situations were right. Hard to say where this will settle, but Arizona money(a LOT of money) is hoping the public gives them +7 or better on game day.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN DIEGO:
Word of Philip Rivers playing with an injury thats worse than had been reported has helped drop this number from San Diego -6 to San Diego -5. The offense hasnt shown much of anything in recent weeks only 13 total points in the month of November! Thats a 0 in Miami, a bye week, and then 13 last week vs. Oakland. Sharps were very happy to get the Rams early at +6, and would fade any game-day rise from squares betting the Chargers. The Over/Under has dropped from 44.5 to 43.5 .
MIAMI AT DENVER:
Denvers had several home games this season vs. decent teams where the line has stuck around -7.5. Here, were seeing a solid Denver -7. That suggests that the smartest influences in the market like Miami at anything higher than the touchdown. Sportsbooks wont give it to them unless the public comes in hard on Denver on game day. Complicating matters, any move to Denver -7.5 would invite teaser play on the Broncos at -1.5. Note that the current forecast is for very windy conditions which might actually favor the stronger arm of Ryan Tannehill over the fading velocity of Peyton Manning. Sharps have really been in love with Miami for weeks. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS their last seven games and are just a couple plays away from a 7-0 ATS sweep.
WASHINGTON AT SAN FRANCISCO: Not much early interest in this one. Its been a pretty quiet week because there just arent many games that need to be bet early in advance of public influence. San Francisco looks to be a solid -9. Sharps dont have much respect for RGIII as a positive influence on the field. But, they arent lining up to lay a big number with inconsistent San Francisco either.
DALLAS AT NY GIANTS (Sunday Night): Strong early support for Dallas at the opening line of -3. Were now seeing -3.5. It takes a LOT of money to move off 3 in the NFL.Its telling that early money bet the favorite off the key number, and there wasnt any buyback on a nationally televised home underdog. Dallas also had a bye last week to help them get healthy. New York lost a turnover-filled home game to San Francisco. It will take more than a half point hook to get dog money interested here. The public may push the game to four and beyond in the extra betting hours leading up to the prime time kickoff.
BALTIMORE AT NEW ORLEANS (Monday Night): Another game pushed off the key number, with New Orleans opening at -3 but now sitting at -3.5 in most spots. But, in this matchup, there has been some interest on the Ravens with the hook. If it were Sharps only betting this game, I think there would be a tug-of-war between Saints -3 and Ravens +3.5. But, the public historically loves betting the Saints at home when theyre cheap (even if thats not working out so well this year). So, theres a chance that dog bettors might get as much as +4 before kickoff. Depends on how much squares have to invest Monday after Saturday and Sunday are in the books
Almost a full schedule this weekend in pro football, as only Carolina and Pittsburgh are sitting out with byes. Those are the last two byes of the season. So, well have complete 16-game NFL cards from Thanksgiving Weekend forward.
Heres how Sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting Sunday and Monday action thus far this week.
CLEVELAND AT ATLANTA:
Very little interest in this game thus far. Atlanta opened at -3, the standard value of home field advantage. Both teams need the win in their respective playoff races, but neither team is seen as playoff caliber by oddsmakers or the smartest bettors. Most everyone agrees that three is the right starting point. Sharps would fade any public move in this game. We can assume there isnt Atlanta interest or Falcons money would have come in early on the key number. Theres some Cleveland money thats waiting around to see if squares (the public) come in on the favorite before kickoff. Slight move up on the total from an opener of 46.5 to 47.
TENNESSEE AT PHILADELPHIA: Another very quiet game here. Philadelphia opened at -11. Sharps sure dont trust Mark Sanchez at a price that high. And, Tennessee is tough to take in a short week off a Monday Night heartbreaker against Pittsburgh. Its interesting that old school Sharps who like taking every double digit underdog havent made their presence felt yet. Perhaps they're waiting to see a game day rise generated by the public. This will not be a heavily bet game unless game day weather creates action.
DETROIT AT NEW ENGLAND:
The Patriots opened at -6, and have been bet up to -7. Sharps have been rather slow to get on the New England bandwagon. Results-wise, the Pats are playing as well now as they have in recent memory. Oddsmakers and Sharps werent giving them that credit, and have missed the mark badly in recent matchups with Denver and Indianapolis (and Chicago, and Buffalo, and Cincinnati as the current run is 5-1 ATS the last six!). Not surprisingly the opener was driven to the key number of seven by position-takers and those supporting New England. The public could push this game higher by kickoff. If that happens, New England will be a popular two-team teaser choice at -1.5, -2, or -2.5. Sharps generally use a basic strategy for teasers that involves any side that can cross both the 3 and the 7 with the six-point move allowed in two-team teasers.
GREEN BAY AT MINNESOTA:
The first games have been so quiet, that a budding tug-of-war here between Green Bay -9.5 and Minnesota +10 seems like a major development. The Vikings are getting interest at the key number of +10 as a home underdog. But, Packers money shows up at anything below that and likely would on Sunday as well given how great Green Bay looked last Sunday in a nationally televised blowout of Philadelphia. Id expect that tug-of-war to continue around the key number. The Over/Under is up at many stores from 48 to 49. Possibly the forecast for a relatively mild weather day outdoors in Minneapolis is a factor.
JACKSONVILLE AT INDIANAPOLIS:
The first number up of Indianapolis -13.5 was pushed up to -14. The Colts have done a good job of blowing out bad teams this season, so any Sharp betting that tendency wanted to get in right below the key number. Old school money that bets every big dog is likely waiting to see if the public pushes the game up above +14. This probably wont be a heavily bet game. But, the early card does have some blowout scenarios that appeal to bored squares. Jacksonville money from Sharps would come in hard at +14.5 if its ever available, if not they will likely take the big dog Jaguars anyway.
CINCINNATI AT HOUSTON:
Houston is up from an opener of -1 to -2. Sharps were impressed with Ryan Mallett but not impressed enough to drive the game all the way to three. This is our first game currently in the teaser window this week. Moving Cincinnati from +2 to +8 in two-team teasers will be a common strategy this week for Sharps if the line doesnt move from where it is now.
NY JETS VS. BUFFALO (game now to be played Monday Night in Detroit): Youve probably heard that this game has been moved to Monday Night because of the massive snowstorm that hit Buffalo this week. It will be played in Detroit, making it a neutral site game. The offshore opener for the new scenario was Buffalo -2. Early money came in on the Bills, forcing other spots to open at Buffalo -2.5 or -3. Odd game for betting because theres no home field, and neither side is an indoor team. Some of the early betting comes from Sharps who believe Buffalos talent is better suited to the site. It will be interesting to watch game-day betting on Monday because squares could normally have a larger impact in the meeting than would normally be the case. The Jets at +8 or +8.5 would be a popular neutral field underdog in teaser plays.
TAMPA BAY AT CHICAGO:
A strong likelihood of rainy conditions has caused the total to drop from 48 to 46. Thats one of the biggest moves of the week so far! Looks like a tug-of-war brewing between Tampa Bay +6 and Chicago -5.5 on the team side. The Bears finally had a good game last week against Minnesota, which should help inspire squares to lay the points. Sharps will take the Bucs at +6 or better.
ARIZONA AT SEATTLE:
Its also supposed to be rainy in Seattle, and thats also caused a small but significant dip in the total. An opener of 42 is down to 41. 42 is a key number for totals, 6 touchdowns. An early tug-of-war is shaping up a point higher than in the game we just discussed. Seattle -6.5 is getting support, but so is Arizona +7. The public has backed off auto-betting Seattle at home because this just isnt the same team this year. Sharps have been fairly aggressive with Arizona when the situations were right. Hard to say where this will settle, but Arizona money(a LOT of money) is hoping the public gives them +7 or better on game day.
ST. LOUIS AT SAN DIEGO:
Word of Philip Rivers playing with an injury thats worse than had been reported has helped drop this number from San Diego -6 to San Diego -5. The offense hasnt shown much of anything in recent weeks only 13 total points in the month of November! Thats a 0 in Miami, a bye week, and then 13 last week vs. Oakland. Sharps were very happy to get the Rams early at +6, and would fade any game-day rise from squares betting the Chargers. The Over/Under has dropped from 44.5 to 43.5 .
MIAMI AT DENVER:
Denvers had several home games this season vs. decent teams where the line has stuck around -7.5. Here, were seeing a solid Denver -7. That suggests that the smartest influences in the market like Miami at anything higher than the touchdown. Sportsbooks wont give it to them unless the public comes in hard on Denver on game day. Complicating matters, any move to Denver -7.5 would invite teaser play on the Broncos at -1.5. Note that the current forecast is for very windy conditions which might actually favor the stronger arm of Ryan Tannehill over the fading velocity of Peyton Manning. Sharps have really been in love with Miami for weeks. The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS their last seven games and are just a couple plays away from a 7-0 ATS sweep.
WASHINGTON AT SAN FRANCISCO: Not much early interest in this one. Its been a pretty quiet week because there just arent many games that need to be bet early in advance of public influence. San Francisco looks to be a solid -9. Sharps dont have much respect for RGIII as a positive influence on the field. But, they arent lining up to lay a big number with inconsistent San Francisco either.
DALLAS AT NY GIANTS (Sunday Night): Strong early support for Dallas at the opening line of -3. Were now seeing -3.5. It takes a LOT of money to move off 3 in the NFL.Its telling that early money bet the favorite off the key number, and there wasnt any buyback on a nationally televised home underdog. Dallas also had a bye last week to help them get healthy. New York lost a turnover-filled home game to San Francisco. It will take more than a half point hook to get dog money interested here. The public may push the game to four and beyond in the extra betting hours leading up to the prime time kickoff.
BALTIMORE AT NEW ORLEANS (Monday Night): Another game pushed off the key number, with New Orleans opening at -3 but now sitting at -3.5 in most spots. But, in this matchup, there has been some interest on the Ravens with the hook. If it were Sharps only betting this game, I think there would be a tug-of-war between Saints -3 and Ravens +3.5. But, the public historically loves betting the Saints at home when theyre cheap (even if thats not working out so well this year). So, theres a chance that dog bettors might get as much as +4 before kickoff. Depends on how much squares have to invest Monday after Saturday and Sunday are in the books