There is my record through Saturday's plays. If you feel that it's "important" for it to be updated more than the 2-3 times a week that I update it, feel free to track the plays yourself and keep track of my record (plus it'll give me someone to "audit" it). Thanks.
Hey tommy- Curious on your thoughts about the Lamar/Indiana game you played yesterday? Was that more a play on Lamar or against Indiana? Thanks
Sorry that I didn't respond until now. It was probably a little bit of both, along with the fact that I've been playing a lot of huge dogs early this season as I've thought that many of those favorites were a bit inflated.
Just have a question about your comment on penn st, you really think they have been undervalued ? I know they are 1-7 ats but that's against one of the worst sos in college basketball , lots of close games , they could be easily worse then 9-1.
Just have a question about your comment on penn st, you really think they have been undervalued ? I know they are 1-7 ats but that's against one of the worst sos in college basketball , lots of close games , they could be easily worse then 9-1.
continued good luck
Today will be a good test. This PSU team is deeper than any team in the past 15 years, but they seem to have trouble keeping their focus for 40 minutes (a little surprising with a pretty veteran team). They get ahead, and then let teams right back into it. They get behind, and they flick the switch and catch up. When I look at kempom or sagarin, I see them ranked in the 90's and the 110's. They're better than that on paper, but I guess we'll see today if it translates to the court. I really think that if it all gets put together, it could be a 15 point win over GW. But at the same time, they could easily come out flat, get behind, and spend the rest of the game playing catch-up (as it's happened too many times already this year).
I have Penn St ranked 96th. I'm not sure they are better than that right now. That being said I think they are the right side today vs GW. IMO line should be a PK.
I know that people like to talk about what would happen if the Kentucky Wildcats played the Sixers. I'd like to open up the debate of what would happen if Grambling State played Oak Hill or Findlay Prep.
Curious as to your thoughts about you beating the closing line over your last ~ 200 picks but being down ~ 35 units during that time period. Also hitting around 43% as well. Does that effect your opinion on beating the closing line being corrilated to winning? I couldn't pull up your previous seasons as tre seat h history only went back 500 post and it seems that wasn't enough to find last year's stats.
Curious as to your thoughts about you beating the closing line over your last ~ 200 picks but being down ~ 35 units during that time period. Also hitting around 43% as well. Does that effect your opinion on beating the closing line being corrilated to winning? I couldn't pull up your previous seasons as tre seat h history only went back 500 post and it seems that wasn't enough to find last year's stats.
Not at all. Beating the closing line should pretty much always correlate to winning over a large enough sample. However, beating the close by ~.3 points per pick isn't enough to win over the long haul against -110 lines, need to do better than that. But, if I continue to beat the close by ~.3 points per pick, I also won't expect to keep hitting at 43%.
Thusfar this season, it hasn't matter whether I've beaten or gotten crushed by the close, the results have sucked either way. 12-17-1 in games where I've lost at least a point to the close, 22-35 in games where I've gained at least a point on the close. But the sample size with everything here is obviously small.
I have Penn St ranked 96th. I'm not sure they are better than that right now. That being said I think they are the right side today vs GW. IMO line should be a PK.
Looks like a couple of writers REALLY like Penn State (or to be more accurate, probably took about 2 minutes to look at records and cast their ballots)...
What CLV do you think is necessary to beat -110 odds? Given that you don't think .3 is enough.
Were last year's results different than this year's? Maybe that would provide a large enough sample given your play volume.
When I looked at it last year, based upon the no-vig lines that Pinny puts out with buying/selling half points, it seemed like you'd need to pick up a little more than .5 point/game to break even on -110 lines in general (obviously picking up a half point on a 3 point game is more important than on a 32 point game). That was my own calculation and I haven't really read much (if any) about it elsewhere, so I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.
I know that people like to talk about what would happen if the Kentucky Wildcats played the Sixers. I'd like to open up the debate of what would happen if Grambling State played Oak Hill or Findlay Prep.
I don't really like to get into these hypothetical never happen matchups, but here's my opinion. I'll take Grambling or any D1 or D2 college team over high school kids. More mature mentally and physically.
I don't really like to get into these hypothetical never happen matchups, but here's my opinion. I'll take Grambling or any D1 or D2 college team over high school kids. More mature mentally and physically.
This. It's the same deal as the stupid NBA v College matchups. It doesn't matter how bad the nba team is (or good the college) the players are just older, bigger, stronger, etc. Same step from high school to college. It won't be close.
When I looked at it last year, based upon the no-vig lines that Pinny puts out with buying/selling half points, it seemed like you'd need to pick up a little more than .5 point/game to break even on -110 lines in general (obviously picking up a half point on a 3 point game is more important than on a 32 point game). That was my own calculation and I haven't really read much (if any) about it elsewhere, so I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.
1/2 pts are worth around just under 2% in college basketball. If you assume the closing lines are fair (and I wouldn't necessarily do this), then yes 1/2pt is a little below break even at -110 and 1pt is winning.
This. It's the same deal as the stupid NBA v College matchups. It doesn't matter how bad the nba team is (or good the college) the players are just older, bigger, stronger, etc. Same step from high school to college. It won't be close.
I agree completely that the college vs. pro arguments are crazy as the gap is incredibly wide. But I really don't think the gap is quite as big as you're making it out to be in this instance.
Grambling is pretty much a historically bad division 1 team over the past couple of years. They have actually won 2 games this year, but one was against an average NAIA school and the other against a Christian school that has 600 students. I'm not saying that Oak Hill could compete with a competent Division 1 team, but I really question how they'd do against Grambling.
As far as "bigger", look at Grambling's squad. They've got a starting 5 that goes 6'0", 6'4", 6'6", 6'6", and 6'9". Oak Hill goes 6'4", 6'5", 6'5", 6'6", and 6'10". In Oak Hill's 10 man rotation, they also have guys 6'7", 6'9", and 7'0" coming off the bench. Weight of Grambling's starting 5 is 175, 180, 205, 215, 235. Oak Hill is 185, 185, 198, 209, 224. Basically, the Division 1 team doesn't have a "size" edge, though you'd expect better conditioning and more muscle mass with the advantage in age.
Oak Hill has 4 seniors committed to Ohio State, Florida State, Iowa, and Penn State. A 5th senior is uncommitted and the 30th ranked PG in the country. They've also got a junior verbaled to Penn State, and another junior that's the 14th ranked center in his class (he's the 7 footer). And then a soph that's getting recruited by the big boys (Duke, NC, etc) and will be one of the top players in his class. Grambling is a mix of walk-ons and guys that picked Grambling over Division 2/3 schools or other MEAC/SWAC type schools. But, of course those guys are between 1 and 4 years older/more experienced.
When you say that it "wouldn't be close", do you think that this Grambling team beats Oak Hill by 20+ if they played a 40 minute game tonight?
I was thinking more about the NBA/College matchup, but perhaps Grambling really is that bad and Oak Hill that much better than a typical high school team. Along more normal circumstances 20-22yr olds should be way more advanced than 17-18yr olds.
I was thinking more about the NBA/College matchup, but perhaps Grambling really is that bad and Oak Hill that much better than a typical high school team. Along more normal circumstances 20-22yr olds should be way more advanced than 17-18yr olds.
Of course, but that's not fun to debate.
Oak Hill is pretty much a "professional" high school team these days. They play a 50 game schedule this season that takes them to Virginia (home state), Washington DC (close enough to home), but then West Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, Massachusetts, California, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Hawaii. And that's just what these kids are doing during the season, doesn't even get into everywhere that they're playing with their AAU teams during the summer. It's crazy.
Just have a question about your comment on penn st, you really think they have been undervalued ? I know they are 1-7 ats but that's against one of the worst sos in college basketball , lots of close games , they could be easily worse then 9-1.
So your really taking wash for 2 units, for a team thats in such a funk .
I really think wash a little over valued coming off non conf , even though i have this game lined wash -8.5 am still taking org st.
I dont know about a letdown here , they are just kids...we shall see .
FWIW, I laid six with Washington last night, I'm someone who subscribes to the letdown theory, we'll see if it works tonight. Also, with the Huskies struggling of late, I think they play with a bit of desperation
I'm basically in the same boat. I've got it lined at 8, but think it's a really good spot for Washington and really bad spot for Oregon State. Plus, I think one of Washington's biggest weaknesses right now is their depth, but it won't be tested by an Oregon State team that is also thin and likes to slow it down.
correct org st played at snails pace vs arz and arz st ...wash is going to be a test BUT my other metrics leads me to org st ...whatever outcome good luck to both of you.
Just because I was curious...Had this game been played about 3 weeks ago (before Washington started leaking oil), I would have had it lined at 14.5. Then again, if things keep trending as they have over the past few weeks, I'll be able to get a bunch of points in the return visit to Corvallis next month.
Comments
http://www.bettingtalk.com/forum/showthread.php/177728-TommyL-s-2014-2015-NCAA-Basketball-Picks?p=861173&viewfull=1#post861173
There is my record through Saturday's plays. If you feel that it's "important" for it to be updated more than the 2-3 times a week that I update it, feel free to track the plays yourself and keep track of my record (plus it'll give me someone to "audit" it). Thanks.
Sorry that I didn't respond until now. It was probably a little bit of both, along with the fact that I've been playing a lot of huge dogs early this season as I've thought that many of those favorites were a bit inflated.
No, had some family stuff that pulled me away for a few days. I need to do some catching up today, and will probably have some stuff again tomorrow.
continued good luck
Today will be a good test. This PSU team is deeper than any team in the past 15 years, but they seem to have trouble keeping their focus for 40 minutes (a little surprising with a pretty veteran team). They get ahead, and then let teams right back into it. They get behind, and they flick the switch and catch up. When I look at kempom or sagarin, I see them ranked in the 90's and the 110's. They're better than that on paper, but I guess we'll see today if it translates to the court. I really think that if it all gets put together, it could be a 15 point win over GW. But at the same time, they could easily come out flat, get behind, and spend the rest of the game playing catch-up (as it's happened too many times already this year).
Curious as to your thoughts about you beating the closing line over your last ~ 200 picks but being down ~ 35 units during that time period. Also hitting around 43% as well. Does that effect your opinion on beating the closing line being corrilated to winning? I couldn't pull up your previous seasons as tre seat h history only went back 500 post and it seems that wasn't enough to find last year's stats.
Not at all. Beating the closing line should pretty much always correlate to winning over a large enough sample. However, beating the close by ~.3 points per pick isn't enough to win over the long haul against -110 lines, need to do better than that. But, if I continue to beat the close by ~.3 points per pick, I also won't expect to keep hitting at 43%.
Thusfar this season, it hasn't matter whether I've beaten or gotten crushed by the close, the results have sucked either way. 12-17-1 in games where I've lost at least a point to the close, 22-35 in games where I've gained at least a point on the close. But the sample size with everything here is obviously small.
Were last year's results different than this year's? Maybe that would provide a large enough sample given your play volume.
Looks like a couple of writers REALLY like Penn State (or to be more accurate, probably took about 2 minutes to look at records and cast their ballots)...
http://www.pennlive.com/sports/index.ssf/2014/12/penn_state_gets_votes_in_ap_to.html
When I looked at it last year, based upon the no-vig lines that Pinny puts out with buying/selling half points, it seemed like you'd need to pick up a little more than .5 point/game to break even on -110 lines in general (obviously picking up a half point on a 3 point game is more important than on a 32 point game). That was my own calculation and I haven't really read much (if any) about it elsewhere, so I'd be interested in hearing other opinions.
I don't really like to get into these hypothetical never happen matchups, but here's my opinion. I'll take Grambling or any D1 or D2 college team over high school kids. More mature mentally and physically.
This. It's the same deal as the stupid NBA v College matchups. It doesn't matter how bad the nba team is (or good the college) the players are just older, bigger, stronger, etc. Same step from high school to college. It won't be close.
1/2 pts are worth around just under 2% in college basketball. If you assume the closing lines are fair (and I wouldn't necessarily do this), then yes 1/2pt is a little below break even at -110 and 1pt is winning.
I agree completely that the college vs. pro arguments are crazy as the gap is incredibly wide. But I really don't think the gap is quite as big as you're making it out to be in this instance.
Grambling is pretty much a historically bad division 1 team over the past couple of years. They have actually won 2 games this year, but one was against an average NAIA school and the other against a Christian school that has 600 students. I'm not saying that Oak Hill could compete with a competent Division 1 team, but I really question how they'd do against Grambling.
As far as "bigger", look at Grambling's squad. They've got a starting 5 that goes 6'0", 6'4", 6'6", 6'6", and 6'9". Oak Hill goes 6'4", 6'5", 6'5", 6'6", and 6'10". In Oak Hill's 10 man rotation, they also have guys 6'7", 6'9", and 7'0" coming off the bench. Weight of Grambling's starting 5 is 175, 180, 205, 215, 235. Oak Hill is 185, 185, 198, 209, 224. Basically, the Division 1 team doesn't have a "size" edge, though you'd expect better conditioning and more muscle mass with the advantage in age.
Oak Hill has 4 seniors committed to Ohio State, Florida State, Iowa, and Penn State. A 5th senior is uncommitted and the 30th ranked PG in the country. They've also got a junior verbaled to Penn State, and another junior that's the 14th ranked center in his class (he's the 7 footer). And then a soph that's getting recruited by the big boys (Duke, NC, etc) and will be one of the top players in his class. Grambling is a mix of walk-ons and guys that picked Grambling over Division 2/3 schools or other MEAC/SWAC type schools. But, of course those guys are between 1 and 4 years older/more experienced.
When you say that it "wouldn't be close", do you think that this Grambling team beats Oak Hill by 20+ if they played a 40 minute game tonight?
Of course, but that's not fun to debate.
Oak Hill is pretty much a "professional" high school team these days. They play a 50 game schedule this season that takes them to Virginia (home state), Washington DC (close enough to home), but then West Virginia, Missouri, Kentucky, Massachusetts, California, Nebraska, North Carolina, and Hawaii. And that's just what these kids are doing during the season, doesn't even get into everywhere that they're playing with their AAU teams during the summer. It's crazy.
Up 20 with 7 minutes left, win by 5. lol
I really think wash a little over valued coming off non conf , even though i have this game lined wash -8.5 am still taking org st.
I dont know about a letdown here , they are just kids...we shall see .
good luck