Regular Season NBA 2014/2015
Obi One
Senior Member
Kicking off the season tomorrow night. Love it!
After last year I finally thought I had figured out what to look for in the NBA to be able to originate +EV bets. While I don't doubt the theory behind the model I wanted to build, I also knew that it would yield only about 80 to 100 picks based on this method. This is very low for a season which has so many games like the NBA does.
So upon talking to a couple of the smarter guys in the industry, especially those involved in advanced NBA stats. The so-called RAPMetricians among the analysts, I decided that that's a much better way to go than my earlier intended model. Once I have that project finished I hope to be able to originate +EV bets on my own, just like in the NFL.
For the time being you'll have to make due with my dart-throws. For tuesday:
1u 501 DAL +4.5 @ SAS
1u 505 HOU -6 @ LAL
After last year I finally thought I had figured out what to look for in the NBA to be able to originate +EV bets. While I don't doubt the theory behind the model I wanted to build, I also knew that it would yield only about 80 to 100 picks based on this method. This is very low for a season which has so many games like the NBA does.
So upon talking to a couple of the smarter guys in the industry, especially those involved in advanced NBA stats. The so-called RAPMetricians among the analysts, I decided that that's a much better way to go than my earlier intended model. Once I have that project finished I hope to be able to originate +EV bets on my own, just like in the NFL.
For the time being you'll have to make due with my dart-throws. For tuesday:
1u 501 DAL +4.5 @ SAS
1u 505 HOU -6 @ LAL
Comments
good luck this season, its a very long grind to say the least
Hey Jets,
The NBA is my favourite sport. I consider myself well versed in the ins 'n outs of the game. The simple fact is that there are a couple of guys and groups out there that are way ahead of the curve. Just look at the line-movement on the totals for tonights games. The DAL/SA game has moved 4 points and ORL/NO even 5. I'm fairly certain that's the work of 1 group. While I have to grind to get to +10 units on the season, they'll do +10 units per month. Year in and year out. Compared to their picks, my picks are 'dart-throws'.
Wishing you the best for this season. make it a profitable one!
1u CHI -4 @ NYK
Maybe some 1H bets when the lines open
1u 504 CLE -10.5 vs NYK
1u DET +3.5 @ MIN
1u DAL -9.5 vs UTA
1u 701 MEM -5.5 @ IND
2u 711 LAC -11.5 @ LAL
I like Detroit and just played it again +6. I can't understand this move to +6 must be those guys believing in teams departing from high altitudes and playing the following day. Goodluck this year Obi
I can't imagine syndicates being high on Minnesota (even tough I might be wrong there). I believe the line movement is more a testament of them being low on Detroit (Josh Smith specifically haha). If Minny wins and covers at -6, it will take a while for me to back Detroit again.
Good luck to you to Wraps. Great job in the one-a-day-thread last year. I hope you'll have a repeat performance
Not much to go on this early but Detroit looked terrible in Denver. Wiggins making his home debut. He was a non factor last night after getting the starting nod after K.Martin DNP and is ? for tonight. Also Minn has beaten this team 8 straight by an avg of low DD's Line movement IMO is justified. Personally I thought the total was to high and went that way. Good Luck you got a nice number.
I didn't watch the game but saw a shortened 11-minute version and Det hung with Denver pretty much the entire way (as a 7-pt dog i think?). I thought the game was more competitive than the 10-pt margin may indicate.
No Monroe again so Detriot's bench is thin but Minn gives up a lot of 2nd chance and points in paint, two places where Det thrives. I took Det +6, I think the line should be 4.5ish
turiaf would be a help if he comes back ...liked minn bench last night...
my line is minn -7 and its getting closer.
good luck fellas
It was 79-77 with 2:48 and I had the 2nd half under 101.5 so I was thinking OT to start the year. Your right in your comments and I don't really like a side and think Detroit is going to go through a little adjustment period and so will Minn but I do understand the line movement towards the Minn side and also think 4/4.5 is a fair number +6 is nice. Good Luck you,Wraps and Obi just try to stay Under please.
- at this point I believe Chicago to be a couple of steps ahead of Cleveland, when it comes to team chemistry on the court. I might be overreaching to last night's game, where Cleveland was discombobulated by the Knicks. Things were not clicking, their game was not flowing and I believe Chicago to be one of the worst teams to have these issues against. They have a deep team so even when the bench players come in they'll be able to outscore the Cavs.
I think it's very easy to over react to last night, which was a really tough situation for Cleve. Cleveland was pretty much an auto bet for me today. GL to ya, and if you don't want my clutter in your threads, say the word.
Agree with the play OBI. I remember when Lebron first came to Miami, either their first or second game was against the Celtics, and watching the game there was no comparison, the C's were clearly the better team, more cohesive, they played like a team that had been together and the Heat played like a team that was just assembled, and this situation reminds me of that. It's going to take a while for the Cavs to gel and find chemistry. I plan on fading them often during the first two months of the season, until they get used to playing with each other. Eventually they'll figure it out, Lebron is too good, but they have a long ways to go imo, and having a guy who's never coached in the NBA won't help them either. I don't think you're overreacting to last night's game, in Lebron's first year the Heat started 8-9 I believe, and a lot of the games looked like last night. The Cleveland team you'll see in March won't look anything like the team now, but until these guys figure it all out, I think there's money to be made fading them. GL
As a wise man on this forum once said: 'There will be a sharp, on every side of every game, always.'
When the books re-opened at -4 for Chicago, I haven't seen any big moves from the syndicates. Sure, some sharps bought the +4 on Cleveland, driving it down to +3.5, but it's not like the 2-points-or-bigger moves we've seen in the past couple of days. Let's see tonight what happens. All questions and comments are welcome here. Good luck to you too.
Now they go to Chicago and Chicago has to feel even this early a good win could go a long way in the confidence department. Should be a good one and if I can get this number down to -3 I think a small flyer on the Bullies is in order.
OBI just a suggestion because you post every day with comments and people enjoy reading and replying why don't you open an Obi discussion thread in the discussion side and just use this for picks. I know that was your intention in this pick thread but you bring up points that people want to reply to and I feel like Doc really don't want to clutter your space so if that's the case just say so. Good Luck tonight.
Sounds good, Updated injuries, Rumors to check. NBA famous for who's playing and who's not last minute. It's good idea and you'll get traffic hopefully.
Maybe Goats or Tommy can open a thread every day called NBA discussions for Friday 10/31.
1u 524 LAL/GS U207
1u 512 BKN/DET U197.5
1u 521 PHX -2 vs UTA
1u 709 SAS -1 @ PHX
- I'm just guessing here, since I didn't really talk to Pops. But the Spurs are looking to get to the top of the standings, before they starts resting players like they did in previous years. With Kawhi Leanord back tonight, I reckon they'll be in full force. Only teams they might sit players against are the likes of Philly, Lakers and Kings, whom they coincidentally have bunched together, just before a nov 19th meeting with Cleveland.
Good call doc,
I keep hitting my head in these situations.
Good Call Doc, Chicago played sloppy the last minute and then also the OT turning it over 4 times I think. Excellent game
1u 515 CHI -2.5 @ MIN
1u 517 BOS +8 @ HOU
1u 1513 IND 1H +6.5 @ ATL
Market dropped a brown one on my LAL/GS total posted yesterday. I'd advice against tailing that one. Somehow the light went on for Byron Scott, probably the players telling him how dumb he is. But they attempted 20 3-pointers yesterday. I f they open up the floor indeed, there's no value on the under.