Betting Talk

Prime time NFL overs

golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
edited November 2014 in Sports Betting
In prime time NFL games this year (Thursday, Sunday night, Monday night) overs are hitting at about 80 pct, maybe even more. Literally impossible to win a prime time under these days. Pretty amazing honestly. This has to be taking a toll on the books. Has anyone else noticed this?

Comments

  • lilylily Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Books can't be happy I think its 17-4 overs..Mon-Thur-Sun nite games this year..
  • newcombenewcombe Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Books will generally remain happy always. 21 games aren't making a dent in any real book. Weekend after weekend they are fielding endless awful bets while always stacking up the juice.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    18-4 after last night
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    19-4
  • lilylily Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Been a ton of favs in these too..
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    19-4

    U still have to cap the games as they come. Thinking there's automatically value on the over because of this streak is foolish.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Obi One wrote: »
    U still have to cap the games as they come. Thinking there's automatically value on the over because of this streak is foolish.

    Lol I don't think that. Just pointing out the streak. If anything, I would be more apt to buck the trend then tail it. But I agree it doesn't mean anything, was just pointing it out. Trends like this don't happen much in a league that is supposedly so "hard" to win at. I think Dallas/ wash Monday night goes under the 49.5 I'm seeing
  • joeytunesjoeytunes Junior Member
    edited October 2014
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    Lol I don't think that. Just pointing out the streak. If anything, I would be more apt to buck the trend then tail it. But I agree it doesn't mean anything, was just pointing it out. Trends like this don't happen much in a league that is supposedly so "hard" to win at. I think Dallas/ wash Monday night goes under the 49.5 I'm seeing

    thye have to just start raising the number
  • Obi OneObi One Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    joeytunes wrote: »
    thye have to just start raising the number

    They opened last night's game at 51 and while it climbed a bit to 51.5 it closed down at 50.5. There's no reason to believe the books got lopsided action on the over, so there's no reason for them to raise the number.
  • groovinmahoovingroovinmahoovin Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    BetOnline's PR guy claimed on Twitter that 85% of their action was on the over, and that they got more over action on that game than any game since the Super Bowl, which is kind of incongruous with BOL opening 51 and closing 50.5 like most books.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    BetOnline's PR guy claimed on Twitter that 85% of their action was on the over, and that they got more over action on that game than any game since the Super Bowl, which is kind of incongruous with BOL opening 51 and closing 50.5 like most books.

    Dave Mason, I think the guy you are talking about, posts stuff like that a couple times a week. Every time it seems to go the other way. If he and Todd Furman agree on a play and suggest that the house needs a certain side it's sure to go the other way. I follow him as well. He's full of shit, IMO. Comical.

    Everyone is so "contrarian" nowadays they see that nonsense and think that the UNDER is the right side because the PUBLIC is on the over. Twitter is the new medium for manipulating the masses it seems.

    Meanwhile if you ignore the bull and just cap the game you'll be just fine.
  • rhinocerosrhinoceros Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    I've been on a lot of these unders based on extreme sentiment (when over 70% over at covers.com). It's been awful.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    rhinoceros wrote: »
    I've been on a lot of these unders based on extreme sentiment (when over 70% over at covers.com). It's been awful.

    That seems like a quick way to burn your bankroll.
  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Here's the betonline guy with the afternoon update. Let's see how it goes.

    Dave Mason ‏@DaveMasonBOL 1m1 minute ago

    Colts (-4.5) is the biggest public play for the late games. Only 15% of the action is on the Steelers.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    20-4
  • KashmirKashmir Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    golfer1000 wrote: »
    20-4

    I'm sure this will continue. I would recommend tripling up on these games.
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Kashmir wrote: »
    I'm sure this will continue. I would recommend tripling up on these games.

    For the record, I am not betting these overs, I am just keeping track of the streak/trend. Will be on the under in Dallas
  • golfer1000golfer1000 Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    20-5
  • RonbetsRonbets Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Golfer, these stats mean nothing without rationale behind it.
  • MrAdvantageMrAdvantage Senior Member
    edited November 2014
    ty sir may i have another
  • MrAdvantageMrAdvantage Senior Member
    edited November 2014
    29-8 now?
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