Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 7
underwraps
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Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 7
A big Sunday of NFL action this week includes a few matchups of teams who either qualified for last years playoffs, or who could face each other in this years playoffs. And, the Sunday Night game was almost the Super Bowl last February, with San Francisco visiting Denver after just missing a trip to the big game last year.
Only two bye teams this week, with Philadelphia and Tampa Bay sitting out. Lets jump right in.
CINCINNATI AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Both of these teams are favored to win their respective divisions in the AFC. The market sees them as dead even right now because Indianapolis is exactly a 3-point favorite (standard home field value in the NFL). It takes a lot of money to move off a solid three, particularly in a game like this where quality teams are matched up. Sharps would fade any public move off the three. The Over/Under is up a point from 49 to 50. Respect for Cincinnatis defense has faded a bit the past two weeks because of their troubles stopping New England and Carolina.
TENNESSEE AT WASHINGTON: Washington has been bet from an opener of -4 up to -5.5. No key numbers are involved, but thats still a meaningful move triggered by a big advantage at quarterback. Kirk Cousins has been turnover prone of late, but thats less of an issue in a home game against one of the worst teams in the league. Sharps remember that Cousins crushed Jacksonville on this field. Tennessee played a nailbiter with the Jags last week. It would take a rise to at least +6 to get any Sharps interested in the dog.
MIAMI AT CHICAGO:
This interconference matchup of Wildcard threats has been hopping between Chicago -3 and Miami +3.5. Sharps have definitely shown a preference for the Bears at the key number. But, the percentages are such that dog lovers are stepping in on the Dolphins when the hook is present. We could see a game-day tug-of-war here with the public on the Bears if -3 is readily available, while the Sharps who dont like Chicago will step in on Miami at +3.5.
CLEVELAND AT JACKSONVILLE:
Similar action here to what we saw in Tennessee/Washington, except here its the road team being bet up in the range between the critical numbers. Cleveland opened at -4, and is now -5 or -5.5 in most places. Sharps have been aggressive with the Browns of late, and have been rewarded for that aggression. Once again, it would take at least +6 to get Sharps interested in the ugly underdog.
SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS:
Potential tug-of-war shaping up here between Seattle -6.5 and St. Louis +7. There were early position-takers on the Seahawks who were anticipating public action on the defending Super Bowl champs. But the full seven brings in dog money from those who believe Seattle has lost a step or two (or three) from last years team. Sharp support would have been even stronger for the Rams if they hadnt faded badly vs. San Francisco this past Monday Night.
CAROLINA AT GREEN BAY:
Interest here has been on the total rather than the team side. An opener of 48.5 has been bet up to 50. Its telling that the Overs in both games involving Carolina and Cincinnati were bet up after their five-quarter tie last week. Oddsmakers have done a good job of matching Sharp algorithms on NFL Over/Unders this season. A joint move like that suggests the syndicates are playing the fatigue angle with good quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers) facing potentially tired defenses. The line has stayed solid for Green Bay on the critical number of -7. Sharps would fade any public move off the key number.
ATLANTA AT BALTIMORE:
Limited interest in this one, as an opener of Baltimore -7 hasnt budged. Sharps largely made this game seven themselves. Atlantas defense will probably be overmatched by the improving Baltimore offense. But, the Falcons can score themselves, and are certainly capable of coming through the back door. The Wise Guys would fade any public move off the key number. Atlanta would have received consideration in a potential shootout if they hadnt fared so poorly last week vs. Chicago, and in recent road games vs. the NY Giants, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. Sportsbooks arent keen on moving Baltimore to -7.5 because they dont want to invite teaser action on the Ravens at -1.5 in two-teamers.
MINNESOTA AT BUFFALO:
Sharps have calmed down about Teddy Bridgewater. He seemed to be in over his head last week vs. Detroits defense. This week he has to play on the road against another good defense. Sharps bet Buffalo -4 on the opener, and kept betting at -4.5 and -5. Some stores are testing the full six just to see if they can bring in some Minnesota money. The total has dropped two points from 44.5 to 42.5. Were hearing this isnt so much weather-related (chance of wind), but that theres serious skepticism about Bridgewater playing well at this site vs. this pass rush.
NEW ORLEANS AT DETROIT:
New Orleans is creating quite a headache for oddsmakers. If the line stays at the opener of New Orleans +2.5, then the Saints will be very popular in basic strategy teasers at +8.5. If the line moves to three, then Sharps will love having a playoff caliber team like New Orleans at +3 against a host that is having trouble maintaining a consistent offense. As we go to press, most stores are at Detroit -2.5, but there are some threes out there. The Over/Under has dropped two points from 50 to 48 because Detroits just played five straight Unders under their new (and conservative) head coach Jim Caldwell.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO:
Kansas City has been getting action in this battle of AFC West Wildcard teams from last year. Both are looking to reach the postseason again this season, so this game should have a playoff feel to it. Kansas City opened at +5.5, but has been bet all the way down to +4. Anticipation of a playoff atmosphere has also generated Under money, with an opening total of 46.5 being bet down to 45.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS:
Sharps are on the Cowboys bandwagon, with an opener of -4.5 being bet up to -6.5. A lot of games this week sitting between the 3 and the 7! Many Sharps were surprised the opener was so low given how badly the Giants played last week. Still, underdog money would come in at the full +7. That could set up a game-day tug-of-war between squares on the Cowboys at anything less than a TD, and Sharps on the underdog at seven.
ARIZONA AT OAKLAND:
Not a lot of betting passion here. Sharps did like Oakland at +4, as were now seeing +3.5 across the board. That line isnt going to drop further because the public would love to bet Arizona at -3 vs. one of the worst teams in the league. Not likely a high interest game even though its in the late TV window. If a tug-of-war does develop, it would be between the public on Arizona and Sharps on Oakland at +4 or better.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DENVER (Sunday Night): Sharps took initial positions on Denver -6 in anticipation of public action. The number moved to Broncos -6.5. As we go to press, there are now some sevens popping up. That number is likely to bring in Sharp dog money, given that its the exact victory margin of Denver home wins over Indianapolis and Kansas City. San Francisco is as good as or better than those teams but will be dealing with a short preparation week after a Monday Night divisional win in St. Louis. This will be an extremely heavily bet game in Vegas because of the marquee teams involved because Peyton Manning is playing because Nevada is basically home team territory for fans of the 49ers (they pack sportsbooks for big games) and because the prime time kickoff gives wagerers all day to bet. Probably a tug-of-war between the public on Denver at -6.5 or better (and many will lay the seven); and Sharps (and Niners locals) at +7 or better. Sportsbooks will pray the game doesnt land right on seven!
HOUSTON AT PITTSBURGH (Monday Night): The Wise Guys thought the opener of Pittsburgh -4 was too high. They bet Houston at +4 hard, and some kept betting at Houston +3.5. We are seeing some threes starting to pop up. That should bring in favorite money, particularly in a Monday Night home game. Were likely to see a tug-of-war through the day on Monday if action does settle right near the key number of three. Sharps like Houston at anything better than that given Pittsburghs disappointing form this season. An early half-point move to the Over (from 44 to 44.5) may signal more Over action on game day if game conditions arent expected to inhibit scoring.
A big Sunday of NFL action this week includes a few matchups of teams who either qualified for last years playoffs, or who could face each other in this years playoffs. And, the Sunday Night game was almost the Super Bowl last February, with San Francisco visiting Denver after just missing a trip to the big game last year.
Only two bye teams this week, with Philadelphia and Tampa Bay sitting out. Lets jump right in.
CINCINNATI AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Both of these teams are favored to win their respective divisions in the AFC. The market sees them as dead even right now because Indianapolis is exactly a 3-point favorite (standard home field value in the NFL). It takes a lot of money to move off a solid three, particularly in a game like this where quality teams are matched up. Sharps would fade any public move off the three. The Over/Under is up a point from 49 to 50. Respect for Cincinnatis defense has faded a bit the past two weeks because of their troubles stopping New England and Carolina.
TENNESSEE AT WASHINGTON: Washington has been bet from an opener of -4 up to -5.5. No key numbers are involved, but thats still a meaningful move triggered by a big advantage at quarterback. Kirk Cousins has been turnover prone of late, but thats less of an issue in a home game against one of the worst teams in the league. Sharps remember that Cousins crushed Jacksonville on this field. Tennessee played a nailbiter with the Jags last week. It would take a rise to at least +6 to get any Sharps interested in the dog.
MIAMI AT CHICAGO:
This interconference matchup of Wildcard threats has been hopping between Chicago -3 and Miami +3.5. Sharps have definitely shown a preference for the Bears at the key number. But, the percentages are such that dog lovers are stepping in on the Dolphins when the hook is present. We could see a game-day tug-of-war here with the public on the Bears if -3 is readily available, while the Sharps who dont like Chicago will step in on Miami at +3.5.
CLEVELAND AT JACKSONVILLE:
Similar action here to what we saw in Tennessee/Washington, except here its the road team being bet up in the range between the critical numbers. Cleveland opened at -4, and is now -5 or -5.5 in most places. Sharps have been aggressive with the Browns of late, and have been rewarded for that aggression. Once again, it would take at least +6 to get Sharps interested in the ugly underdog.
SEATTLE AT ST. LOUIS:
Potential tug-of-war shaping up here between Seattle -6.5 and St. Louis +7. There were early position-takers on the Seahawks who were anticipating public action on the defending Super Bowl champs. But the full seven brings in dog money from those who believe Seattle has lost a step or two (or three) from last years team. Sharp support would have been even stronger for the Rams if they hadnt faded badly vs. San Francisco this past Monday Night.
CAROLINA AT GREEN BAY:
Interest here has been on the total rather than the team side. An opener of 48.5 has been bet up to 50. Its telling that the Overs in both games involving Carolina and Cincinnati were bet up after their five-quarter tie last week. Oddsmakers have done a good job of matching Sharp algorithms on NFL Over/Unders this season. A joint move like that suggests the syndicates are playing the fatigue angle with good quarterbacks (Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers) facing potentially tired defenses. The line has stayed solid for Green Bay on the critical number of -7. Sharps would fade any public move off the key number.
ATLANTA AT BALTIMORE:
Limited interest in this one, as an opener of Baltimore -7 hasnt budged. Sharps largely made this game seven themselves. Atlantas defense will probably be overmatched by the improving Baltimore offense. But, the Falcons can score themselves, and are certainly capable of coming through the back door. The Wise Guys would fade any public move off the key number. Atlanta would have received consideration in a potential shootout if they hadnt fared so poorly last week vs. Chicago, and in recent road games vs. the NY Giants, Minnesota, and Cincinnati. Sportsbooks arent keen on moving Baltimore to -7.5 because they dont want to invite teaser action on the Ravens at -1.5 in two-teamers.
MINNESOTA AT BUFFALO:
Sharps have calmed down about Teddy Bridgewater. He seemed to be in over his head last week vs. Detroits defense. This week he has to play on the road against another good defense. Sharps bet Buffalo -4 on the opener, and kept betting at -4.5 and -5. Some stores are testing the full six just to see if they can bring in some Minnesota money. The total has dropped two points from 44.5 to 42.5. Were hearing this isnt so much weather-related (chance of wind), but that theres serious skepticism about Bridgewater playing well at this site vs. this pass rush.
NEW ORLEANS AT DETROIT:
New Orleans is creating quite a headache for oddsmakers. If the line stays at the opener of New Orleans +2.5, then the Saints will be very popular in basic strategy teasers at +8.5. If the line moves to three, then Sharps will love having a playoff caliber team like New Orleans at +3 against a host that is having trouble maintaining a consistent offense. As we go to press, most stores are at Detroit -2.5, but there are some threes out there. The Over/Under has dropped two points from 50 to 48 because Detroits just played five straight Unders under their new (and conservative) head coach Jim Caldwell.
KANSAS CITY AT SAN DIEGO:
Kansas City has been getting action in this battle of AFC West Wildcard teams from last year. Both are looking to reach the postseason again this season, so this game should have a playoff feel to it. Kansas City opened at +5.5, but has been bet all the way down to +4. Anticipation of a playoff atmosphere has also generated Under money, with an opening total of 46.5 being bet down to 45.
NY GIANTS AT DALLAS:
Sharps are on the Cowboys bandwagon, with an opener of -4.5 being bet up to -6.5. A lot of games this week sitting between the 3 and the 7! Many Sharps were surprised the opener was so low given how badly the Giants played last week. Still, underdog money would come in at the full +7. That could set up a game-day tug-of-war between squares on the Cowboys at anything less than a TD, and Sharps on the underdog at seven.
ARIZONA AT OAKLAND:
Not a lot of betting passion here. Sharps did like Oakland at +4, as were now seeing +3.5 across the board. That line isnt going to drop further because the public would love to bet Arizona at -3 vs. one of the worst teams in the league. Not likely a high interest game even though its in the late TV window. If a tug-of-war does develop, it would be between the public on Arizona and Sharps on Oakland at +4 or better.
SAN FRANCISCO AT DENVER (Sunday Night): Sharps took initial positions on Denver -6 in anticipation of public action. The number moved to Broncos -6.5. As we go to press, there are now some sevens popping up. That number is likely to bring in Sharp dog money, given that its the exact victory margin of Denver home wins over Indianapolis and Kansas City. San Francisco is as good as or better than those teams but will be dealing with a short preparation week after a Monday Night divisional win in St. Louis. This will be an extremely heavily bet game in Vegas because of the marquee teams involved because Peyton Manning is playing because Nevada is basically home team territory for fans of the 49ers (they pack sportsbooks for big games) and because the prime time kickoff gives wagerers all day to bet. Probably a tug-of-war between the public on Denver at -6.5 or better (and many will lay the seven); and Sharps (and Niners locals) at +7 or better. Sportsbooks will pray the game doesnt land right on seven!
HOUSTON AT PITTSBURGH (Monday Night): The Wise Guys thought the opener of Pittsburgh -4 was too high. They bet Houston at +4 hard, and some kept betting at Houston +3.5. We are seeing some threes starting to pop up. That should bring in favorite money, particularly in a Monday Night home game. Were likely to see a tug-of-war through the day on Monday if action does settle right near the key number of three. Sharps like Houston at anything better than that given Pittsburghs disappointing form this season. An early half-point move to the Over (from 44 to 44.5) may signal more Over action on game day if game conditions arent expected to inhibit scoring.