Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 6
underwraps
Senior Member
Las Vegas Sharps Report- NFL Week 6
Quarterback injuries have muddied the waters a bit in three different games this weekend. As we go to press Friday around lunchtime in the East, official numbers still arent up and widely available in games involving the Titans, Vikings, and Cardinals because its not yet known who will be playing quarterback. Sharps cant bet a game until its on the board!
As always, games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
DENVER AT NY JETS: Denver was a very popular sharp bet at the opener of -7, as the Wise Guys were doing a combination of position-taking against expected public action, and nudging the game into the basic strategy window for two-team teasers. Were now seeing Denver -9 or -9.5 in most places. Sources tell us that sharps would definitely come in on the Jets at +10 (particularly those who are heavy at -7!). Though, we could see some sharps buy in on the Jets on game day at +9 just in hopes of being able to bet Denver -2.5 in six-point teasers. The Over/Under is up a point from 46.5 to 47.5. Note that well only mention totals today in games that have moved at least a point off the opener.
PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: An opener of pick-em has been bet up to Cleveland -1.5. The Browns were a popular sharp bet last week against Tennessee, and rallied late to cover against the first numbers the Wise Guys had been attacking. Its possible the line moves some more before kickoff. But, sharps want the game in the 1.5 to 2.5 range so Pittsburgh (+) can be used in teasers that cross both the 3 and the 7 in one move. So, were the public to bet the game up to three, sharps would come in HARD on Pittsburgh to bring it back to +2.5.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: No line yet. This is not expected to be a heavily bet game from the public because its two bad teams playing in front of a minuscule TV audience. Sharps will only bet heavily if they think the eventual opener is way off base.
CHICAGO AT ATLANTA: This has been a solid three all week for the home favorite. Sharps would fade any move off the key number created by public action. The power of the three is so strong that percentages favor whichever team has it in their hip pocket. At the solid three, were hearing that sentiment is split. Sharps dont trust the Atlanta defense as a favorite, or mistake-prone Jay Cutler in what is a tough team fatigue spot (fourth road game in five weeks).
GREEN BAY AT MIAMI: Looks like we have a tug-of-war here shaping up between Green Bay -3 (squares and some sharps) and Miami +3.5 (the rest of the sharps). Once again, the power of the key number is in play. The pubic loves betting Aaron Rodgers at cheap prices. And, the Packers have started covering spreads again. But, old school sharps expect a flat spot here given that Green Bay is coming off three divisional games and is now facing a non-conference opponent. This could be a very heavily bet tug-of-war before kickoff. Nothing to mention on total the past few games because no sharp action has been indicated. As weve discussed in the past, oddsmakers are now doing a better job of matching sharp algorithms for the openers. Its weather that typically drives major moves.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA: No line up here yet. Its expected that Detroit will be a short road favorite against whoever gets the call. Theres not much value difference in sharp Power Ratings between the fading Christian Ponder and the promising but green Teddy Bridgewater. Were hearing that sharps will be looking to invest in Bridgewater through the second half of the season if he can stay healthy.
CAROLINA AT CINCINNATI: It looks like A.J. Green will miss the game for Cincinnati. His absence has created a tug-of-war between Cincinnati -6.5 and Carolina +7. Sharps who think Carolinas falling apart dont minding laying the -6.5 even if Green is absent (particularly in the bounce back spot after the loss at New England). Sharps who believe Green has clear value think that +7 is too much in his absence. Seven is also a key number, influencing the percentages for sharps on either side of the battle. Tough to know how the public will bet this one because squares havent yet shown a liking for taking the Bengals at prices this high vs. decent opposition. And, many squares took a bath last week when they bet the Bengals vs. the Pats.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: This game hasnt budged off the opener. Like the matchup between Chicago and Atlanta, sharps will fade any move off the three. Were hearing though that this one is being more heavily bet. The contingents that favor underdogs and try not to overreact to one game think Buffalo +3 is a smart bet at home. Those who focus more on skill sets and current form really like what they saw from the Patriots last week once they snapped out of their funk. So, this game is getting sharp action from both sides. If the public comes in on New England Sunday morning, sharps would happily take +3.5 or better. It would be hard to imagine a move below the three given general square love for Tom Brady, and the fact that +2.5 would open up Buffalo as a nominee for teasers.
BALTIMORE AT TAMPA BAY: A tug-of-war here shaping up between Baltimore -3 and Tampa Bay +3.5. Once again its the value bettors on underdogs thinking the Bucs make a lot of sense as an improving home underdog. Early square action and some bounce back sentiment for the Ravens is what originally drove the line off the key number of three. We have an Over/Under move of a point on the Over, from an opener of 42.5 up to 43.5. That seems HUGE in a week where totals mostly havent been bet yet. Sources tell us that Over sentiment is driven by the Kubiak factor in Baltimore.
SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND: Mostly a solid San Diego -7 across the board. Though, some stores are testing Chargers -7.5. Sources tell us that sharps may step out on San Diego if the public doesnt just to create teaser opportunities on the Chargers. Being positioned on Chargers -7 at a fair price and Chargers -1.5 in teasers is being seen as a promising way to attack the game. Only the old school sharps are thinking about Oakland assuming peak intensity after a bye week for a hated divisional rival.
DALLAS AT SEATTLE: An opener of Seattle -8 has been bet up to -8.5 in some places, with square shops or locales guarding against teasers testing Seattle -9. Sharps would love to see -8 or -8.5 on game day so the Seahawks can be used at -2 or -2.5 in teasers. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to risk that, or risk being one-sided on Dallas +9. There could be a lot of action on this one in the hours leading up to kickoff because its the defending Super Bowl champions facing Americas Team in a high profile TV game in the late window. Sportsbooks wouldnt be surprised if this is the most heavily bet afternoon game of the season thus far.
WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA: No line yet because of the Arizona quarterback situation. The Cardinals are seen as the better team if one of their first two quarterbacks can play. They would be favored by around 5-7 if thats the case. With inexperienced Logan Thomas on the field, its probably a field goal game in the markets.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: Huge Sunday Night game in market terms because both of these cities love to bet! That money finds its way into the global marketplace even if locals arent exactly within driving distance of a casino. Were looking at a probable tug-of-war between Philadelphia -2.5 and the NY Giants +3. Sharps hit the Giants early at +3, and would love having the G-Men in two-team teasers at +8.5 There are a ton of teaser opportunities this weekend, which has quite a few casinos concerned about exposure. Generally speaking, sharps are much more fond of the Giants at +3 or +8.5 in a teaser than they are of Philadelphia -2.5. The Ove/Under is down a point from 51 to 50.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS (Monday Night): Not much action yet. Though, its telling that an opener of San Francisco -3.5 wasnt bet toward the underdog. Even with the power of three in the mix, sharps wanted no part of the Rams. That tells you they Wise Guys made the game higher than three themselves. The Over/Under opened at 42.5 and has been bet up to 43.5 Were hearing thats based on the surprisingly good showing so far of Austin Davis at QB for the Rams. So, sharps who has reason to consider the Rams chose Over 42.5 and Over 43 as the way to express that rather than asking Davis to fully avoid miscues.
Millman podcast bit.ly/1tigBk1
Quarterback injuries have muddied the waters a bit in three different games this weekend. As we go to press Friday around lunchtime in the East, official numbers still arent up and widely available in games involving the Titans, Vikings, and Cardinals because its not yet known who will be playing quarterback. Sharps cant bet a game until its on the board!
As always, games are presented in rotation order so you can make notes in your schedules.
DENVER AT NY JETS: Denver was a very popular sharp bet at the opener of -7, as the Wise Guys were doing a combination of position-taking against expected public action, and nudging the game into the basic strategy window for two-team teasers. Were now seeing Denver -9 or -9.5 in most places. Sources tell us that sharps would definitely come in on the Jets at +10 (particularly those who are heavy at -7!). Though, we could see some sharps buy in on the Jets on game day at +9 just in hopes of being able to bet Denver -2.5 in six-point teasers. The Over/Under is up a point from 46.5 to 47.5. Note that well only mention totals today in games that have moved at least a point off the opener.
PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND: An opener of pick-em has been bet up to Cleveland -1.5. The Browns were a popular sharp bet last week against Tennessee, and rallied late to cover against the first numbers the Wise Guys had been attacking. Its possible the line moves some more before kickoff. But, sharps want the game in the 1.5 to 2.5 range so Pittsburgh (+) can be used in teasers that cross both the 3 and the 7 in one move. So, were the public to bet the game up to three, sharps would come in HARD on Pittsburgh to bring it back to +2.5.
JACKSONVILLE AT TENNESSEE: No line yet. This is not expected to be a heavily bet game from the public because its two bad teams playing in front of a minuscule TV audience. Sharps will only bet heavily if they think the eventual opener is way off base.
CHICAGO AT ATLANTA: This has been a solid three all week for the home favorite. Sharps would fade any move off the key number created by public action. The power of the three is so strong that percentages favor whichever team has it in their hip pocket. At the solid three, were hearing that sentiment is split. Sharps dont trust the Atlanta defense as a favorite, or mistake-prone Jay Cutler in what is a tough team fatigue spot (fourth road game in five weeks).
GREEN BAY AT MIAMI: Looks like we have a tug-of-war here shaping up between Green Bay -3 (squares and some sharps) and Miami +3.5 (the rest of the sharps). Once again, the power of the key number is in play. The pubic loves betting Aaron Rodgers at cheap prices. And, the Packers have started covering spreads again. But, old school sharps expect a flat spot here given that Green Bay is coming off three divisional games and is now facing a non-conference opponent. This could be a very heavily bet tug-of-war before kickoff. Nothing to mention on total the past few games because no sharp action has been indicated. As weve discussed in the past, oddsmakers are now doing a better job of matching sharp algorithms for the openers. Its weather that typically drives major moves.
DETROIT AT MINNESOTA: No line up here yet. Its expected that Detroit will be a short road favorite against whoever gets the call. Theres not much value difference in sharp Power Ratings between the fading Christian Ponder and the promising but green Teddy Bridgewater. Were hearing that sharps will be looking to invest in Bridgewater through the second half of the season if he can stay healthy.
CAROLINA AT CINCINNATI: It looks like A.J. Green will miss the game for Cincinnati. His absence has created a tug-of-war between Cincinnati -6.5 and Carolina +7. Sharps who think Carolinas falling apart dont minding laying the -6.5 even if Green is absent (particularly in the bounce back spot after the loss at New England). Sharps who believe Green has clear value think that +7 is too much in his absence. Seven is also a key number, influencing the percentages for sharps on either side of the battle. Tough to know how the public will bet this one because squares havent yet shown a liking for taking the Bengals at prices this high vs. decent opposition. And, many squares took a bath last week when they bet the Bengals vs. the Pats.
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: This game hasnt budged off the opener. Like the matchup between Chicago and Atlanta, sharps will fade any move off the three. Were hearing though that this one is being more heavily bet. The contingents that favor underdogs and try not to overreact to one game think Buffalo +3 is a smart bet at home. Those who focus more on skill sets and current form really like what they saw from the Patriots last week once they snapped out of their funk. So, this game is getting sharp action from both sides. If the public comes in on New England Sunday morning, sharps would happily take +3.5 or better. It would be hard to imagine a move below the three given general square love for Tom Brady, and the fact that +2.5 would open up Buffalo as a nominee for teasers.
BALTIMORE AT TAMPA BAY: A tug-of-war here shaping up between Baltimore -3 and Tampa Bay +3.5. Once again its the value bettors on underdogs thinking the Bucs make a lot of sense as an improving home underdog. Early square action and some bounce back sentiment for the Ravens is what originally drove the line off the key number of three. We have an Over/Under move of a point on the Over, from an opener of 42.5 up to 43.5. That seems HUGE in a week where totals mostly havent been bet yet. Sources tell us that Over sentiment is driven by the Kubiak factor in Baltimore.
SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND: Mostly a solid San Diego -7 across the board. Though, some stores are testing Chargers -7.5. Sources tell us that sharps may step out on San Diego if the public doesnt just to create teaser opportunities on the Chargers. Being positioned on Chargers -7 at a fair price and Chargers -1.5 in teasers is being seen as a promising way to attack the game. Only the old school sharps are thinking about Oakland assuming peak intensity after a bye week for a hated divisional rival.
DALLAS AT SEATTLE: An opener of Seattle -8 has been bet up to -8.5 in some places, with square shops or locales guarding against teasers testing Seattle -9. Sharps would love to see -8 or -8.5 on game day so the Seahawks can be used at -2 or -2.5 in teasers. Sportsbooks have to decide if they want to risk that, or risk being one-sided on Dallas +9. There could be a lot of action on this one in the hours leading up to kickoff because its the defending Super Bowl champions facing Americas Team in a high profile TV game in the late window. Sportsbooks wouldnt be surprised if this is the most heavily bet afternoon game of the season thus far.
WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA: No line yet because of the Arizona quarterback situation. The Cardinals are seen as the better team if one of their first two quarterbacks can play. They would be favored by around 5-7 if thats the case. With inexperienced Logan Thomas on the field, its probably a field goal game in the markets.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: Huge Sunday Night game in market terms because both of these cities love to bet! That money finds its way into the global marketplace even if locals arent exactly within driving distance of a casino. Were looking at a probable tug-of-war between Philadelphia -2.5 and the NY Giants +3. Sharps hit the Giants early at +3, and would love having the G-Men in two-team teasers at +8.5 There are a ton of teaser opportunities this weekend, which has quite a few casinos concerned about exposure. Generally speaking, sharps are much more fond of the Giants at +3 or +8.5 in a teaser than they are of Philadelphia -2.5. The Ove/Under is down a point from 51 to 50.
SAN FRANCISCO AT ST. LOUIS (Monday Night): Not much action yet. Though, its telling that an opener of San Francisco -3.5 wasnt bet toward the underdog. Even with the power of three in the mix, sharps wanted no part of the Rams. That tells you they Wise Guys made the game higher than three themselves. The Over/Under opened at 42.5 and has been bet up to 43.5 Were hearing thats based on the surprisingly good showing so far of Austin Davis at QB for the Rams. So, sharps who has reason to consider the Rams chose Over 42.5 and Over 43 as the way to express that rather than asking Davis to fully avoid miscues.
Millman podcast bit.ly/1tigBk1
Comments
NEW ENGLAND AT BUFFALO: This game hasn’t budged off the opener. Like the matchup between Chicago and Atlanta, sharps will fade any move off the three. We’re hearing though that this one is being more heavily bet. The contingents that favor underdogs and try not to overreact to one game think Buffalo +3 is a smart bet at home. Those who focus more on skill sets and current form really like what they saw from the Patriots last week once they snapped out of their funk. So, this game is getting sharp action from both sides. If the public comes in on New England Sunday morning, sharps would happily take +3.5 or better. It would be hard to imagine a move below the three given general square love for Tom Brady, and the fact that +2.5 would open up Buffalo as a nominee for teasers.
SAN DIEGO AT OAKLAND: Mostly a solid San Diego -7 across the board. Though, some stores are testing Chargers -7.5. Sources tell us that sharps may step out on San Diego if the public doesn’t just to create teaser opportunities on the Chargers. Being positioned on Chargers -7 at a fair price and Chargers -1.5 in teasers is being seen as a promising way to attack the game. Only the old school sharps are thinking about Oakland…assuming peak intensity after a bye week for a hated divisional rival.
NY GIANTS AT PHILADELPHIA: Huge Sunday Night game in market terms because both of these cities love to bet! That money finds its way into the global marketplace even if locals aren’t exactly within driving distance of a casino. We’re looking at a probable tug-of-war between Philadelphia -2.5 and the NY Giants +3. Sharps hit the Giants early at +3, and would love having the G-Men in two-team teasers at +8.5 There are a ton of teaser opportunities this weekend, which has quite a few casinos concerned about exposure. Generally speaking, sharps are much more fond of the Giants at +3 or +8.5 in a teaser than they are of Philadelphia -2.5. The Ove/Under is down a point from 51 to 50.
WTF, does whoever writes this actually think sharps wouldn't bet teasers at the BETTER lines of -1 & +9? I kinda like reading this every week but stuff like that makes me wonder just how much the author knows.
They just don't and I don't understand it either.
Probably not, but then again it all depends on the numbers and early/late info.