Betting Talk

Denver -7 @-115 opening line or reduced juice closing?

DaltonisDaltonis Junior Member
edited October 2014 in Sports Betting
Question for the very sharp minds at betting talk. I bet Denver -7 @-115 on sunday night. I'm being told that I should just wait for the reduced juice line on sunday. I would not have a problem with that in many cases, just with where I had the Denver line going.

At this time Denver is sitting at -8.5 -110 on 5D. Lets just say the line stays on that number, 5D will have it reduced @-105 on sunday. So what this guy is telling me is that I have equal value based on opening & closing line shifts being fairly priced.

I would understand if I was at -130 against a closing -105. My push rate chart tells me my number is well worth the extra 10 cents for 1.5 points. Either I'm worse at math then I thought or he is just wrong. Thanks for any help in ending this debate.

Comments

  • srn828srn828 Member
    edited October 2014
    The 7 is definitely worth more than 10 cents in the NFL. Whether you should wait until reduced juice is not a simple yes/no answer. Obviously the juice does not reduce until the line matures and is harder to beat. That said, you can bet more then at a lower margin. If you are, however, originating numbers and feel the price is right early and you can get down your appropriate amount, then I see no reason not to fire away while the value exists.
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited October 2014
    It was obviously a good call here. If it was sitting at something like 7.5 when you played it, then maybe waiting is a good move since you've got Somme less important numbers to worry about with a small move. But in hindsight, you made the right call here.
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