Strike price question when modelling.
bksze
Senior Member
Tinkering around with a model for NHL and was just wondering how you guys determine strike pricing. Right now I'm flagging the model at 10% discrepancy off the implied probability. Results in a fair bit of action every day so either my model isn't tight enough or my strike price isn't. Curious to hear what some of you other guys are doing.
Comments
I always seem to have more plays earlier in the season and as more results are generated the more stable my numbers are.
Sometimes I'll adjust the pct's higher and then gradually shrink them to full season pct's I'm comfortable with.
I do that with NCAA football with the game totals the first few weeks. I start my difference 2-3 points higher than I have them right now.
I don't play a game automatically just because it reaches that specific threshold but I do like to have that information handy to help me look into the game further.
This. Every model's sweet spot will be different. I use ~3.5% in college hoops totals and ~6% in bases.
Also, nothing wrong with volume as long as you're confident it's producing +ev plays at that level. A small edge with a lot of volume works just fine
That's not what Rip told me. Next, you'll try claiming that I should still make plays on the weekend even if I've already hit my target goal for the week.