Betting Talk

Strike price question when modelling.

bkszebksze Senior Member
edited October 2014 in Sports Betting
Tinkering around with a model for NHL and was just wondering how you guys determine strike pricing. Right now I'm flagging the model at 10% discrepancy off the implied probability. Results in a fair bit of action every day so either my model isn't tight enough or my strike price isn't. Curious to hear what some of you other guys are doing.

Comments

  • ebemissebemiss Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    I use 14.5/15% in NHL and around 10% in baseball. It all depends on what you're comfortable with and the results you've been getting through tracking.

    I always seem to have more plays earlier in the season and as more results are generated the more stable my numbers are.

    Sometimes I'll adjust the pct's higher and then gradually shrink them to full season pct's I'm comfortable with.

    I do that with NCAA football with the game totals the first few weeks. I start my difference 2-3 points higher than I have them right now.

    I don't play a game automatically just because it reaches that specific threshold but I do like to have that information handy to help me look into the game further.
  • duritodurito Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    It should be derived through proper back testing.
  • Dr. HDr. H Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    durito wrote: »
    It should be derived through proper back testing.

    This. Every model's sweet spot will be different. I use ~3.5% in college hoops totals and ~6% in bases.

    Also, nothing wrong with volume as long as you're confident it's producing +ev plays at that level. A small edge with a lot of volume works just fine :)
  • TommyLTommyL Super Moderator
    edited October 2014
    Dr. H wrote: »
    Also, nothing wrong with volume as long as you're confident it's producing +ev plays at that level. A small edge with a lot of volume works just fine :)

    That's not what Rip told me. Next, you'll try claiming that I should still make plays on the weekend even if I've already hit my target goal for the week.
  • bkszebksze Senior Member
    edited October 2014
    Thanks guys. I think i'll keep it at 10% and let it run for awhile, see how it goes. If I start playing, I'll start posting.
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