Local Book Question...
Dubbs
Senior Member
I'd like to get some feedback on how to play my local. I just opened an account this weekend with a book that heavily (1/2 - 1 1/2pts) shades favorites. It obviously pays off when taking dogs, (i.e. Iowa St +22, Memphis +22 this past weekend) but is difficult when I want the fave (i.e. Oklahoma -4.5, he still has OU -6 this weekend). For lack of a better term, do I just "auto" play these dogs? I don't cap my own games, I follow, and I shop. I also have a local whose site mirrors BM. Thanks in advance!
Comments
Until someone sharper than me chimes in with a more helpful answer, I feel comfortable saying you can't just blindly play every good dog line in football if you're getting an extra 1/2-1 pt around non-key numbers. Getting +3.5 on a +2.5 dog or +7.5 on a +6.5 dog is of course another story, especially in the NFL.
Hopefully someone responds with a longer, more accurate answer, but I think that should get you started.
But I think blindly betting dogs cause of a .5/1pt advantage is not smart. You could easily still lose your ass between now and rest of season if favs run well. I would look for another out to play the favs and play dogs at this place.
Thanks. I didn't necessarily mean "blindly" bet them. Just wanted to see if someone had a plan of attack. I understand Goats' advice. I've already had Cowboys +3.5, Chiefs +3 -110 at kickoff, UW +8, and took Stanford -4.5 second half. But USC -8, instead of the 7 or 7.5, to follow fishboom, scared me off.
If you have other outs & can shop why would you even think about playing favs there? As for blindly betting dogs no I wouldn't.
Good question to ask StevieY though as I'm sure he has a breakdown on it.
also look at ML's may have a few scalps there
Yes.
I appreciate you taking the time to write this. You have really opened my eyes to this situation.
this is what i did for years. different sports would require a different "hurdle" for the scalp to become an autoplay. i then weighted them as well...a 5 cent scalp in NFL was worth X while a 10 cent scalp was worth 1.5X. good luck...pretty easy money if you can figure out the hurdles that work/make sense in my opinion.
As chuck mentioned the best blind bet candidates would be NFL spreads jump over key numbers (-2.5 vs -3.5, that's a small dunk +EV bet close to kickoff). NFL games will also have the most volume at ur book and if u happen to crush the bookie probably won't care too much.
My local uses bovada. Whats the best plan here?
I have come to the same conclusion as others and have tried to bet the games I could get the most value on which is the NFL. I have checked 5dimes alternative lines to see how much value I am getting on these games. I also check Pinny of course.
My question is if i am getting 20-30 cents of value from the 5dimes alternate lines near kickoff what would my EV be for the season? It would be a rather limited sample size as I am betting the games with the most value. So around 4 NFL games a week. Also usually put a 15-20% money line play
I used Bovada for quite a while and I agree. They started adjusting the lines a particular way after I was clearly tailing all sharp guys. I switched to 5dimes and love it. It'd still be nice to have a local as an option to shop lines but for now I make due. I'll never deposit another dime on Bovada. Worst customer service ever and too many late night poker tournaments for this guy
Carolina +7 (-105) and Houston (+3.5) as of right now. Can't find those anywhere else. You can hammer lines like this all you want but it really doesn't matter if you hit 55% and don't get paid.....if your local uses Bovada lines and looks them up as you send them, then you may be able to get something for a short while depending on your relationship with your local.