Betting Talk

Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 3

underwrapsunderwraps Senior Member
edited September 2014 in Sports Betting
Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFL Week 3

Hopefully the worst game of the NFL weekend is behind us with that 56-14 throttling of the Tampa Bay Bucs at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons. Still a full 15 games ahead because byes don’t start until next weekend. Let’s take a look at how Sharps (professional wagerers) have been betting pro football this week.

SAN DIEGO AT BUFFALO:
A lot of interest on Buffalo at the opener of pick-em, as we’re now seeing Bills -2.5 everywhere. This puts sportsbooks in an awkward position. Sharps would come in very heavily on San Diego at the key number of +3. If there’s no additional line move, Sharps will use San Diego +8.5 in two-team teasers very heavily because the six-point move would cross both the 3 and the 7. Bettors wanting to fade San Diego in the letdown spot after Seattle, combined with the “bad body clock” issue of the early kickoff were very happy to get the Bills early in the week. San Diego money will be coming in one way or another before kickoff. Not much interest in the Over/Under, which is up half a point from 44.5 to 45.

DALLAS AT ST. LOUIS:
Not much interest here, as Dallas opened at -1 and is still there. St. Louis is dealing with quarterback issues as you know. The win by Austin Davis at Tampa Bay last week doesn’t look as good now as it did at the time. Dallas just won at Tennessee, but it’s very tough for mediocre teams to play well on the road two weeks in a row. Some Sharps have touched the total, dropping an opener of 45 down to 44.

WASHINGTON AT PHILADELPHIA: Washington gets more respect from the market with Kirk Cousins at quarterback than RGIII. The fact that the team performed so well against Jacksonville after Griffin got hurt encouraged the Wise Guys to bet the Skins at the opener of +7. We’re now seeing +6.5 everywhere. Interesting that there hasn’t been any buyback yet given Philly’s big win Monday Night at Indianapolis. It’s expected that the public will support the Eagles on game day…setting up a potential tug-of-war between Philadelphia -6.5 and Washington +7.

HOUSTON AT NY GIANTS:
Tricky game for Sharps because it’s hard to trust either team in this situation. The host Giants are playing horribly out of the gate as they try to learn a new offensive system. Houston is primed for a flat spot after a 2-0 start because of a brutal schedule sequence that has them playing a late game in Oakland one week, an early game in New York the next. The opener of Texans -2.5 has largely stayed put. This will put NYG in the teaser window as an underdog. Sharps are less fond of the Giants in that spot because of their horrible start.

MINNESOTA AT NEW ORLEANS: Sharps took an early position on New Orleans -9.5, which drove the line up to the key number of -10. It’s interesting though that betting didn’t go through the ten. New Orleans has a blowout history at home. Minnesota will be without Adrian Peterson. Yet, Sharps stopped at the key number. It’s expected that the public will bet New Orleans on game day. Dog money would definitely come in at +11, and possibly at +10.5. The Over/Under has been bet down from 51 to 49.5.

TENNESSEE AT CINCINNATI:
Virtually no interest in this one at all thus far. Cincinnati has been playing very well but is dealing with some injuries. Tennessee played very poorly vs. Dallas last week after getting a great result at Kansas City. There may be a game day move to the Titans…but the smart money is waiting to see if they can get +7.5 or better after public betting. If Sharps wanted the Bengals, they would have jumped in on the seven right away.

BALTIMORE AT CLEVELAND:
Baltimore has been bet up from an opener of pick-em to -1.5 or -2. Baltimore’s opening loss at Cincinnati doesn’t look as bad now as it did at the time, and the Ravens impressed the next time out vs. Pittsburgh. Cleveland is now in the teaser window as a dog that can cross both the 3 and 7 in a six-point move, so the Browns will be popular in two-team teasers if the line stays here.

GREEN BAY AT DETROIT:
Support for Detroit, as an opener of -1 has been bet up to -2.5. That gives us another game in a spot that oddsmakers HATE. If they go to the full three, Green Bay money will flood in. If not, everyone will be betting Green Bay at +8.5 in two-team teasers. We should note that Sharps haven’t been impressed with the Packers out of the gate. Lions money is very happy at -1 and -2.

INDIANAPOLIS AT JACKSONVILLE:
Not a game Sharps are touching on the team side. Jacksonville has looked so bad the last six quarters that they can’t be trusted as a home underdog (part of that is due to injuries depleting their receiving corps). Indianapolis tends to play nailbiters rather than blowouts. The Over/Under has been bet down to 45 from 46. Sharps “fading” the Jacksonville offense are largely doing so on the total rather than the team side.

OAKLAND AT NEW ENGLAND:
Sharps took early position on New England at -13 and -13.5 on the assumption that the public would be hitting the Patriots in a blowout scenario. This is Oakland’s second bad body clock game in three weeks, and the Patriots showed again last week they can put up dominant final scores. We’re hearing it would take at least +15 for anything more than old school double digit dog money to come in.

SAN FRANCISCO AT ARIZONA:
No movement at all off the opening numbers of San Francisco -3 and 42. The market was waiting to see what was going to happen with Arizona’s quarterback situation. We can tell you that this line wouldn’t have been three if Carson Palmer was clearly going to be at 100%. The Cards get more respect than that these days, and many Wise Guys are still seeing a down year for the Niners. Last Sunday Night’s loss did nothing to change their minds about that!

DENVER AT SEATTLE:
This is going to be a very highly bet game from the public, because it’s a rematch of a highly bet Super Bowl! Sharps mostly had Seattle last year on a neutral field, and still see them as the superior of the two teams. The price has been around Seattle -4.5 of -5 the whole way, which represents that sentiment fairly well. Sharps preferring Seattle have made some early investment, but are saving some just in case the public comes in heavily on Peyton Manning and Denver again (as they did last February). Denver money is waiting to see if something as good as +6 becomes available on game day. This is going to be a highly bet game…but it hasn’t been yet because the Wise Guys are waiting.

KANSAS CITY AT MIAMI:
Support for Kansas City (which isn’t something we’ve been saying much this year) at the opener of +5. We’re now seeing +4 in most locales. Sources tell us this was more along the lines of “anti-Miami” money because the Dolphins haven’t earned the respect it takes to lay that kind of price at home. Sharps are still mostly down on Kansas City, at least as a team that could return to the playoffs. But, they’re not so far down that the Chiefs should be +5 to the inconsistent Dolphins. The Over/Under is up a point from 41.5 to 42.5.

PITTSBURGH AT CAROLINA:
We’re looking at a possible tug-of-war here involving Sharps between Carolina -3 and Pittsburgh +3.5. If you believe Carolina is the better of the two teams, then -3 is too low. If you believe that Carolina is overrated this year (as many Sharps still do even after going 0-2 fading them out of the gate), then you want to take the hook when you see it. Even before the public is betting, we have a market unable to settle around the key number. The Over/Under has been bet up from 40 to 42 because Pittsburgh’s defense has been so shaky the first two weeks. Sharps liking the Carolina side have bet Panthers and Over against that poor Steelers defense. Sharps liking the dog at +3.5 are doing so because of Pittsburgh’s offense.

CHICAGO AT NY JETS (Monday Night): Big move here up all the way from pick-em to Jets -3. Chicago has a tough travel scenario after playing out West in San Francisco last week. But, they do have an extra day to get ready (unlike San Diego, Houston, and Oakland). Sharps know that Chicago was lucky to steal that game last week, and don’t want to back the Bears until the team plays a good game. Sharp money would come in at +3.5 if the public moved the Jets higher than the key number.
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